Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[Barracker]

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
and
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

UK
March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

Sky has area information.

• • • DAILY UPDATE * * * MARCH 19th

Total UK cases: 3269
New UK cases: 643
Total UK Deaths: 144
New UK Deaths: 40

I wonder how many of these people have had to stay in hospital.

Nquartz
I'm uncomfortable making predictions, but comparisons are useful.

April 1st is in 11 day's time, and we are currently 14 days behind Italy. A comparable position then, would be where they were 3 days ago, on March 16th. On that day they had 2158 total deaths.
It is not unreasonable to expect similar numbers for the UK on April 1st.

Today, Italy has 3405 deaths.

This illustrates the rapid acceleration of the deaths.
The first death in Italy was February 21st.
By March 13th, 1266 had died.

It took 3 weeks for those first 1266 to die.
It has taken 3 days for the last 1247 to die.

The numbers are terrible.

I don't think this has been posted yet?

medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Thanks @Barracker

Those are frightening numbers

😢😢😢😢

Thanks for linking the article ScrimpshawTheSecond. I just re-read it, taking more time over it.
I really recommend people read it to understand the impact of this disease, and what we must do to stand a chance against it.

He's just written an update.

about how the sooner we take the hardest measures like lockdown, the shorter the lockdown needs to last. And how 'second peaks' are avoidable.

Thanks for the update. That is grim. I wish I could encourage those people not taking measures to socially distance to read it, and those who are already doing what they can to consider how their mental health is before reading.

Yesterday's graphs:
Thursday 19th March 2020

• • • DAILY UPDATE * * * MARCH 20th

Total UK cases: 3983
New UK cases: 714
Total UK Deaths: 177
New UK Deaths: 33

Thank you Barracker, this is a great thread. Fewer deaths in London today, proportionally, I noticed. I wonder if other areas will start to have a sharp rise. West Midlands already has a cluster.

Sorry, I'm new to the thread. Where can we find the stats. Is there a link? Also, presumably the new cases are also hospital admissions since we aren't testing unless you get admitted?

The opening post has a link to worldometer, gigi556, you can compare graphs for most countries there.

Also the link to the article Scrimpshaw provided is really important to understand what is happening, and what is likely to happen to each country.

I imagine today's figures are a statistical blip, Erishkigal. London will be struggling beyond capacity before everywhere else, and then death rates will rise horribly there.

I agree that other areas will start to accelerate too. I desperately wish the govt would lockdown. Every day we don't now, is an unimaginable number of avoidable deaths in a few weeks.

The second medium article I linked to has a graph showing how even one day of delay in a lockdown has an enormous impact upon deaths on an exponential growth pattern.

It's unbearable to know what's coming.

my prediction is that the numbers of deaths will level off next week, we will never be Italy

@UYScuti what makes UK I think that?

Wow. Typos. What makes you think that? Everything I'm seeing makes me think we are headed off the cliff with Italy.

@UYScuti We've only just started.

Can you bring some data or analysis to support your prediction, UYScuti?

This is intended to be a data based thread.
Have you read the medium articles that are linked? They are very compelling.

We've only just started
time will tell
surely you all hope I'm right...dont you?

Can you bring some data or analysis to support your prediction
my prediction is based on the oft referenced differences between us and Italy, ie that they had a 'perfect storm' situation

To see why numbers of deaths go up or down we could maybe look at what was happening a month ago, according to that medium article.

14 days incubation; 14 days between onset of symptoms and death.

20th of Feb - what measures had the UK taken?

Of course we hope!

But this isn't a wishful thinking thread. There are hundreds of them. And I'm going to be holding my breath too, when all that can be done has been done. All that is left at that point is hope.

But sadly, wishful thinking in the hands of those in power now, has led to bad choices that have ignored hard data and strong analysis, and false hope that realistic projections can be ignored.

Scary, realistic data serves a hugely important purpose. It compels us to act.

I want to be wrong.
But much as we can predict that if you toss a coin a hundred times, fifty times you'll get heads, and fifty tails, we can predict where these numbers will go, until we've taken similar actions to other countries who gave successfully contained the growth and them reduced it.

I started this thread because I realised that I couldn't really persuade anyone who was determined to disbelieve.
But as the thread grows older day by day, each day provides the evidence of the way we are treading in Italy's footsteps. This thread is 'time will tell' in action.

My hope is that anyone who stumbles across it will just let the numbers do all the talking.

Uk government has released some of the evidence it has based its methodology on.

www.gov.uk/government/news/coronavirus-covid-19-scientific-evidence-supporting-the-uk-government-response