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Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread
Barracker · 15/03/2020 14:42
I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.
Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
and
worldometer global data
Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:
UK
March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21
This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41
I'll add today's numbers when they are released.
Barracker · 19/03/2020 19:37
Nquartz
I'm uncomfortable making predictions, but comparisons are useful.
April 1st is in 11 day's time, and we are currently 14 days behind Italy. A comparable position then, would be where they were 3 days ago, on March 16th. On that day they had 2158 total deaths.
It is not unreasonable to expect similar numbers for the UK on April 1st.
Today, Italy has 3405 deaths.
This illustrates the rapid acceleration of the deaths.
The first death in Italy was February 21st.
By March 13th, 1266 had died.
It took 3 weeks for those first 1266 to die.
It has taken 3 days for the last 1247 to die.
The numbers are terrible.
ScrimpshawTheSecond · 19/03/2020 19:50
I don't think this has been posted yet?
medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
Barracker · 20/03/2020 08:26
Thanks for linking the article ScrimpshawTheSecond. I just re-read it, taking more time over it.
I really recommend people read it to understand the impact of this disease, and what we must do to stand a chance against it.
He's just written an update.
about how the sooner we take the hardest measures like lockdown, the shorter the lockdown needs to last. And how 'second peaks' are avoidable.
Barracker · 20/03/2020 20:53
The opening post has a link to worldometer, gigi556, you can compare graphs for most countries there.
Also the link to the article Scrimpshaw provided is really important to understand what is happening, and what is likely to happen to each country.
Barracker · 20/03/2020 21:00
I imagine today's figures are a statistical blip, Erishkigal. London will be struggling beyond capacity before everywhere else, and then death rates will rise horribly there.
I agree that other areas will start to accelerate too. I desperately wish the govt would lockdown. Every day we don't now, is an unimaginable number of avoidable deaths in a few weeks.
The second medium article I linked to has a graph showing how even one day of delay in a lockdown has an enormous impact upon deaths on an exponential growth pattern.
It's unbearable to know what's coming.
Barracker · 20/03/2020 21:43
Of course we hope!
But this isn't a wishful thinking thread. There are hundreds of them. And I'm going to be holding my breath too, when all that can be done has been done. All that is left at that point is hope.
But sadly, wishful thinking in the hands of those in power now, has led to bad choices that have ignored hard data and strong analysis, and false hope that realistic projections can be ignored.
Scary, realistic data serves a hugely important purpose. It compels us to act.
I want to be wrong.
But much as we can predict that if you toss a coin a hundred times, fifty times you'll get heads, and fifty tails, we can predict where these numbers will go, until we've taken similar actions to other countries who gave successfully contained the growth and them reduced it.
I started this thread because I realised that I couldn't really persuade anyone who was determined to disbelieve.
But as the thread grows older day by day, each day provides the evidence of the way we are treading in Italy's footsteps. This thread is 'time will tell' in action.
My hope is that anyone who stumbles across it will just let the numbers do all the talking.
ScrimpshawTheSecond · 21/03/2020 08:22
Uk government has released some of the evidence it has based its methodology on.
www.gov.uk/government/news/coronavirus-covid-19-scientific-evidence-supporting-the-uk-government-response
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