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Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread
Barracker · 15/03/2020 14:42
I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.
Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
worldometer global data
Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:
March 14th 2020:
This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41
I'll add today's numbers when they are released.
istherelifeafter40 · 18/03/2020 17:05
That is what I wondering all along, especially regarding school closures. Everyone pedalling the myth that "children don't get it" while Chinese data clearly said 0.2% death rate for 10-19 yo. What, over 10 are not children anymore? And this data is from the country where schools were actually closed! The UK government will be responsible for a total carnage that is coming our way. I can only hope that they will be punished.
DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 18/03/2020 17:45
I read through some of the clinical guidance for various specialisms today - they definitely are not expecting kids to get it bad because they are asking paediatric ICU to be ready to admit patients up to the age of 25 (and possibly beyond), so that’s very comforting.
The scary thing is, if you have a kid who needs medical support for pre existing stuff, it might or be available to them because children’s facilities are full of young adults with the virus.
I will go find the link again.
DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 18/03/2020 17:46
Barracker · 19/03/2020 11:38
We're just starting the rapid climb in numbers. It will get much steeper for some time yet. I'm restricting myself to looking only two weeks ahead at a time. I'm not ready to look further.
I have an idea where we will be by April 1st.
That's all, for now.
UYScuti · 19/03/2020 11:52
I don't think we're going to see a rapid climb in numbers, I don't think we're going to get to the state of Italy and I certainly don't think it's going to be as bad as it was in Wuhan China.
China has a serious problem with air quality and people's lungs will have been compromised by this, they will therefore be much more susceptible to acute respiratory distress.
Barracker · 19/03/2020 12:23
UYScuiti We have taken far fewer measures than Italy.
Of course we all hope that somehow we will not follow their path.
But there is no compelling reason to suppose we will fare better. It is a reasonable supposition that we will not.
So far, we are replicating their numbers very closely.
This thread is for data and analysis. It's important not to turn it into unsupported speculation. It's possibly niche to those of us who feel data is important, though many of us may also be on other threads which are more about opinion and speculation too. I understand that the figures are scary, and a natural reaction is to enter denial.
But at the moment, what we can say with certainty is that we are closely following Italy's model, about 14 days behind now.
And that their suppression measures were stronger, and enacted earlier. They also have a better ratio of ICU beds per head than the UK.
I know they have an older demographic, but am not sure whether this is significantly different to the UK, or whether it can go any way to mitigate the other disadvantages we face. I hope so.
There was another poster who timeshifted the Italy and UK graphs together by 14 days, I think. This would be useful to have on this thread, so we can see visually if we start to diverge from their path.
ThinkAboutItTomorrow · 19/03/2020 16:08
I just made this chart based on the data in worldometer
Looks as though uk deaths are growing faster than Italy were at the same stage. Worrying.
Does anyone have historic data of the number of critical cases? Ours seems low at 1% Vs 8% in Italy. Is it just early days in the progression of the illness in the UK?
Nquartz · 19/03/2020 18:30
It will get much steeper for some time yet. I'm restricting myself to looking only two weeks ahead at a time. I'm not ready to look further.
I have an idea where we will be by April 1st.
What is your projection please?I
I love this thread, pure facts.
treedragon · 19/03/2020 18:34
The stats are missing key information. I want to know what proportion of the stats contracted the virus having travelled to an infected area and how many were caught in the UK.
I'd also like to see stats per town. Like Derby has 3 confirmed cases, Norwich has 2.
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