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Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

968 replies

Barracker · 15/03/2020 14:42

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

OP posts:

ThinkAboutItTomorrow · 21/03/2020 10:00

Anyone know why there is a big difference between critical cases and number of deaths?
Yesterday only 20 people were critical. But then 33 died. So are people going very quickly from mild to critical to dead? Or are people being found to have Covid when they die but weren't tested before that so didn't show up in the cases?


DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 21/03/2020 10:25

Is the number of critical cases ones that have been deemed critical that day? And deaths were likely recorded as critical cases in the previous days?


Barracker · 21/03/2020 11:24

That's my assumption, DuLANG

Also, at this level, numbers will swing around from day to day a bit.
When numbers are much higher, it becomes more predictable.

OP posts:

ThinkAboutItTomorrow · 21/03/2020 12:22

I was accounting for the lag. So 20 critical on Thursday. 33 deaths on Friday.

That's what I don't get.


Barracker · 21/03/2020 12:33

I can only guess that it might be to do with how people are classified critical, and in what way they are reported, and whether this is seen as priority to be reported, compared to reporting diagnoses and deaths. It's possible that a batch of critical cases aren't being reported on one particular day from a hospital, but may be swept up in the next day's figures, or that there isn't perfect clarity of criteria on what is critical. Or it may just be a blip.
My speculation isn't that useful, probably! I'm guessing.

OP posts:

Bufferingkisses · 21/03/2020 12:40

There is also a lag for testing. Some of those who are critical will not yet have tests back so the numbers will be off with confirmed cases vs suspected cases.


nancyjuice7 · 21/03/2020 14:15

Just marking my place. It's absolutely fascinating.

Do we know why China have had "no new cases"?


UYScuti · 21/03/2020 14:27

All the people who are susceptible to the worst effects of the virus have been wiped out the forest fire has run out of fuel
Also reduction in economic activity may have caused an improvement in air quality ...people's lungs can function more effectively and withstand pathogens.


ThinkAboutItTomorrow · 21/03/2020 17:18

Hadn't thought of the testing lag.

I suspect the point below about it not being a very important metric to track is probably right too.


EightNineTen · 21/03/2020 18:26

Are today's figures out yet? I've looked for them but seems to be nothing.


ThinkAboutItTomorrow · 21/03/2020 18:37

So it took Italy 11 days to go from 10 deaths to 233. It's taken us 9.


ScrimpshawTheSecond · 21/03/2020 18:53

I'm sorry to sound callous, but given the differing approaches to testing (within the UK from week to week, and between different countries) I would suggest the 'number of confirmed cases' does not give very much information. Many suspected cases are not being tested and therefore not counted.

As far as I can tell, the only meaningful thing to count is deaths, I'm sorry to say. Even then, some may be missed as they'll be attributed to other causes.

Today's figures:

As of 9am on 21 March, a total of 72,818 have been tested:

67,800 negative.
5,018 positive.

As of 9am, 233 patients who tested positive for coronavirus have sadly died.


TackyTriceratops · 21/03/2020 19:03

What I find disconcerting is that we closed schools around the same time Italy did, comparatively, based on fatalities?

I've not analysed properly. It must be lock down this week, surely.


WaitingForSummerAgain · 21/03/2020 19:09


DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 21/03/2020 19:33

Do we know why China have had "no new cases"?

China were literally sealing suspected cases into their homes, making it impossible for them to leave.
A Mumsnet poster who lives in china recently said ‘I have never been so glad not to live in a democracy’.

Their virus containment measures were incomparable to anything we are likely to see in the west.


ThinkAboutItTomorrow · 21/03/2020 19:43

Thanks @waitingforsummeragain
Great video.

The last bit with the buckets is one of the best explanations of why China has stopped the spread.

I still don't get what happens when borders reopen. Billions of Chinese people won't have had it.

I guess this is where the vaccine as exit strategy makes sense. But we can't live like this for that long surely?


ThinkAboutItTomorrow · 21/03/2020 19:46

The other thing I'm a bit surprised by is that only 17% of people tested in the last day were positive.

Given the number of people 111 are saying they won't even test I had imagined virtuallly every test done was on someone really sick with strong symptoms so thought almost all tests would be positive.

Or again are we seeing the results of tests done a couple of days ago set against a real time number of tests in 24 hours?


Barracker · 21/03/2020 20:53

Yesterday's graphs
Friday 21st March

Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread
Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread
OP posts:

Barracker · 21/03/2020 20:56

Saturday MARCH 21st

Total UK cases: 5018
New UK cases: 1035
Total UK Deaths: 233
New UK Deaths: 56

n.b. error in above post: graphs are for Friday 20th March

OP posts:

ScrimpshawTheSecond · 21/03/2020 21:03

I believe it takes a few days for test results, yes. So presumably we're seeing results from last week's tests?


LadyTiredWinterBottom2 · 21/03/2020 21:13

How does this compare to Italy now?


Barracker · 21/03/2020 21:17

How does this compare to Italy now?

14 days ago on March 7th they had a total of 233 deaths, exactly the same as the UK today.

OP posts:

gnomeisland · 21/03/2020 21:22

4 deaths in Cornwall's only major hospital this week.


SophocIestheFox · 21/03/2020 21:30

Place marking. Thank you for the thread. The facts are as they are, the implications...well. They also are as they are. Heavens, I hope we’re wrong.


ThinkAboutItTomorrow · 21/03/2020 22:03

Thanks. It's taking days for the tests to come through?
So there's a time lag between infection and symptoms plus a time lag to register the infection.

Is that why the medium article seemed to show a 12 day lag from first illness to registered infection?

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