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to be worried about coronavirus part 3

(1000 Posts)
peridito Tue 18-Feb-20 09:28:02

starting this in case ivybush is busy

previous thread
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3819574-AIBU-to-ask-if-you-are-worried-about-the-new-coronavirus-continued

TheElementsOdeToJoy Thu 20-Feb-20 23:08:27

Technically I think we are now meeting the WHO definition of pandemic

What are the suggested actions once we meet that threshold, does anyone know? For example should people start cancelling/postponing long haul (or any) foreign travel plans?

LarkDescending Fri 21-Feb-20 03:00:26

Canada’s latest case may be a result of transmission in Iran. If Iran is now exporting the virus that is a huge cause for concern.

LarkDescending Fri 21-Feb-20 03:29:10

Also of concern - new cases among Australian evacuees from the Diamond Princess. They had tested negative before evacuation. I wonder how many more latent cases are among the former passengers now released from the ship.

LarkDescending Fri 21-Feb-20 03:53:06

Several interesting new graphs here.

Of note:
Daily new cases outside mainland China (unsteady upward trend).
Overall recovery rate (upward trend) vs death rate (downward trend).

GorkyMcPorky Fri 21-Feb-20 05:39:44

Wall Street Journal booted out of Beijing.

GorkyMcPorky Fri 21-Feb-20 06:04:03

Canadian case via Iran!

www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5470757?__twitter_impression=true

WhoWants2Know Fri 21-Feb-20 06:09:08

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/20/health/nebraska-coronavirus-positive-tests/index.html

Apparently 11 Americans who were evacuated from the cruise ship were tested in Nebraska and found to have Coronavirus. But it doesn't really clarify whether these are in addition to the cases that they flew out knowing they were infected.

WaterSheep Fri 21-Feb-20 07:02:23

I wonder how many more latent cases are among the former passengers now released from the ship.

I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of those who were aboard end up testing positive.

peridito Fri 21-Feb-20 07:24:13

I wonder if negative tests followed by postive ones is a factor of a complex test not being performed correctly or because of the way the disease develops ?

RedToothBrush Fri 21-Feb-20 07:58:19

www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/20/807742861/new-research-bats-harbor-hundreds-of-coronaviruses-and-spillovers-arent-rare?utm_term=nprnews&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=npr&t=1582271552033
New Research: Bats Harbor Hundreds Of Coronaviruses, And Spillovers Aren't Rare

Batman wasn't a freak. He just visited a batcave and got a strange virus...

lemonjumper Fri 21-Feb-20 08:03:10

500 prisoners in China are infected, according to the Guardian.

And another Wuhan doctor has died - 29 year old Peng Yinhua, working in respiratory and critical care at Wuhan’s Jiangxia district’s First People’s Hospital, died at 9:50pm on Thursday.

www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/21/coronavirus-live-updates-china-wuhan-hubei-south-korea-cases-infections-death-toll-outbreak-diamond-princess-latest-news

RedToothBrush Fri 21-Feb-20 08:04:43

The sentinel event in Canada, with the woman travelling from Iran, is the evidence that WHO needs to declare a pandemic, in the absence of proper records and reports from Iran.

Fully expecting the declaration in the next couple of days now.

WaterSheep Fri 21-Feb-20 08:16:50

another Wuhan doctor has died - 29 year old Peng Yinhua

I've just been reading about him, he delayed his wedding to help treat others. Absolutely devastating. sad

littlemissmuffins Fri 21-Feb-20 08:45:10

Should the government not be quarantining the British citizens who were on the diamond princess ship and returning today??

Now it's clear that people can test negative numerous times before testing positive, and that there is/was an ongoing outbreak on the ship, with new cases going up. Also the Two Australians who were repatriated with negative tests now testing positive??

I think we are missing what the WHO keeps calling a 'window of opportunity' to stop or slow the spread by not quarantining these brits for 14 days.

I don't know if it's just my opinion, but it seems to me that our government and many others are asleep at the wheel on this. It's crazy to me.

wherearemychickens Fri 21-Feb-20 08:49:21

I thought the plan was for them to be quarantined at Arrowe Park?

RedToothBrush Fri 21-Feb-20 08:50:17

Should the government not be quarantining the British citizens who were on the diamond princess ship and returning today??

I was under the impression they were.

They were being sent to The Wirral.

Theme parks in Japan are being closed for coronavirus (hello kitty World).

This summer is going to be lots of fun then. Anyone with kids should stockpile things to do at home when you are bored.

TheElementsOdeToJoy Fri 21-Feb-20 08:50:25

is the evidence that WHO needs to declare a pandemic

What would it mean in practice if a pandemic is declared?

For example are health services required to carry out special pandemic contingency plans/personnel/facilities?

Are ordinary citizens to cancel travel - in don’t necessarily mean exotic holidays to China, but what about work travel, school trips abroad, short haul within Europe? How about travel within countries since there are affected and unaffected areas?

Presumably this would have implications on (say) insurance?

Or does the WHO just announce “oh dear, pandemic” and everybody carries on as normal?

(Sorry, I’m sounding terribly ignorant!)

RedToothBrush Fri 21-Feb-20 08:52:24

Reports of a 3rd (official) death in Iran seem to be circulating. Elderly woman in Arak.

HasaDigaEebowai Fri 21-Feb-20 08:58:25

More than 200 new cases in two chinese prisons according to reuters

littlemissmuffins Fri 21-Feb-20 08:58:43

Ah OK, thanks. Just read about the Australians and Americans who returned from the ship after testing negative then subsequently tested positive and assumed. It's good that they are being quarantined.

HasaDigaEebowai Fri 21-Feb-20 09:02:55

Reuters are also reporting that there are patients in China who are testing negative, being released and then testing positive again and having to be readmitted to hospital.

GorkyMcPorky Fri 21-Feb-20 09:05:38

When you consider that Li Wenliang went to prison it really doesn't bear thinking about. I'm not saying that common or garden criminals don't count, but there are many prisoners jailed for simply speaking out.

WaterSheep Fri 21-Feb-20 09:05:40

there are patients in China who are testing negative, being released and then testing positive again and having to be readmitted to hospital.

And presumably in the interim they're contagious, meaning the virus continues to spread.

HasaDigaEebowai Fri 21-Feb-20 09:10:24

And presumably in the interim they're contagious, meaning the virus continues to spread.

There must be a good chance of that being correct. It isn't good for our UK cases where we have 8 people discharged as "recovered" and wandering about.

Quartz2208 Fri 21-Feb-20 09:16:05

Are they testing as negative because the test isnt yet good enough because its so new or are they seen as recovered and still carriers?

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