Lets look at the numbers for the election there are now around 60,000 Green members. Up from 50,000 in 2021.
The leadership election Results then were interesting. It is a transferable vote system.
2021 Green Party of England and Wales leadership election
Candidate First pref. Final round
Carla Denyer and 5,062 (43.9%) 6,273 (61.7%)
Adrian Ramsay
Tamsin Omond and 3,465 (30.1%) 3,902 (38.3%)
Amelia Womack
Shahrar Ali 2,422 (21.0%)
Martin Hemingway 342 3.0%
and Tina Rothery
Ashley Gunstock 212 1.8%
Re-open 22 0.2%
nominations
11,525 10,175
Turnout 11,525 (21.7%)
So low turnout is normal. The final round was won with a 22% difference but only 1200 votes. Note Ali had a solid vote in first round, most of his voters went to Denyer and Ramsay in last round though it seems some didn't vote for anyone else . It also show the strength of the reality based community in the party. A minority but a solid one.
So some uncertainties if the 10,000 new members all vote it will be a very different election. However Ramsay/Chowns likely have a solid lead amongst long standing members with a good track record of success.
There is an influx of new members from the left/Corbynista types to vote for Polanski in the last few weeks. However they have a problem. The niceness factor. There is infighting amongst the Greens, but the party internal image/ethos is base around niceness. This has been a problem for biology knowers in the party because apparently knowing biology is not nice. This party ethos could now screw over the Polanski supporters though.
The Hypnoboobs scandal for a start is going to be an issue. It is not nice, it is kind of sordid and unpleasant.
A lot of the recent members will have come from the left where you allowed to be pretty obnoxious without much push back. If they bring that approach to this election they could undermine themselves. They are going to claim that Ramsay/Chowns are basically identical to Reform/Tories because they are not be left wing enough. The sort of purity spiral which the left love. Thing is denouncing everyone as nazis isn't very nice. Claiming Ramsay/Chowns are basically EVIL because they think like JKR when in reality they are gender moderates is going to look absurd and will strengthen the biology knowers position.
That the Biology Knowers - longstanding members who basically are typical Greens - are the real NICE people and the TAs are crazy and unpleasant - which also happens to be true.
The fanaticism of the TAs could push more and more people into the reality camp during the election. Ramsay/Chowns are in UK terms pretty left wing anti austerity/pro Gaza they would feel uncomfortable in Starmer's Labour. Polanski who seems nice enough in approach is not going to run a nasty campaign, but some of his supporters will and this could undermine him.
With the recent success of the Greens and the general political climate this contest is likely to be way more competitive and will be closely watched. There will be hustings etc. I think it is possible longstanding members will be more likely to vote. Lets see what happens. Get the popcorn.