An ancedote which you can take with a huge pinch of salt if you wish but feeds back to the ballot spoiling / making a protest above and a comment on how the campaigning has taken notice of predicted turnout.
Some I know was talking online earlier this week to a bunch of people. They know some well but not all of them. They talk reasonably regularly as part of a community. (Being deliberately vague here) One was male but does not identify as male. This guy was not a happy bunny. He said they had been considering voting Starmer but since he came out as a terf they were thinking about going to the polling station and drawing around their dick instead in protest.
So Starmer is upsetting a few and it is getting noticed. Why take this risk? Why has Starmer pitched more to GCs and this message has hardened over the past week or so. Interestingly, if I had to hazard a guess, based on the wording from this guy I get the impression I was told he's the type of person who says they vote but won't so Starmer can afford to lose his none existant vote. It was a 'I can't be arsed type attitude but I want to make a point online' hot air type comment.
I've been saying about focus group work and suspecting that Labour is noticing theres something up and being more nervous than they should be. Labour's vote traditionally is less reliable in terms of turnout than the Conservative one - one of the things today to look out for is low turnout. I am expecting a particularly low turnout as no one is particularly enthused by Starmer even if they hate the Tories. Younger voters are much more unlikely to vote than older voters. Traditionally habitual older Conservative voters, vote without fail at every election. We may well see Reform do well as part of this dynamic btw. Why is turnout important? By-elections by nature tend to be low turnout votes and they often are much more violatile and unpredictable than General Election votes. They are more prone to bigger swings and unexpected results.
Normally I'd have a punt at trying to work out how the result will go. I'll have a fair idea of the mood and how strong feelings are. Polling also tends to be fairly consistent between different pollsters. Not this time around. I genuinely haven't got a clue how it will go, apart from a Labour win. I think the margin is so high, theres no danger of Labour not winning. The result comes down to turnout. You can see how the Conservatives have been pushing on this and Boris Johnson being wheeled out to rally the troops - and interesting there seems to be a slight uptick in favour of the Cons in the last few days (not unexpected because it'll be about weighing on likelihood to vote which is fairly typical and in like with historic patterns). Thats on of the reasons we are seeing so many scolding type posts on MN too. Its about trying to whip up would be Labour voters to turn out rather than sit at home in disillusionment. The pollsters being so broad in their predictions of the result are reflective of the turnout issue - its whats going to be talked about A LOT gone 10pm tonight.
This is a pollster from IPSOS earlier this morning
Keiran Pedley AT Keiranpedley
Could turnout be a story this election? Our prediction poll has 70% certain to vote - down from 80% in 2019. Surveys usually overstate turnout. In reality 2019 was 67% from 80% CTV. But working backwards from 70% CTV now don't be surprised if turnout is in the 50s this time.
Key analysis from AT CameronGarrett yesterday on turnout. % saying 10 out of 10 certain to vote in penultimate AT IPSOSUK poll by age vs penultimate 2019 poll All: 65% (-9) 18-34: 46% (-21)! 35-54: 65% (-6) 55+: 79% (-3) Turnout with younger people could be a real issue.
See graph below post:
Its worth looking on twitter for comments on turnout today. There usually are some saying whether early turnout is low or whether the number of returned postal votes is high etc etc before the polls close. Naturally it could completely go the other way and IPSOS might be wrong.
I note here, that there hasn't been a calculation by Labour to try and pivot towards promoting Self ID in order to encourage young voters to turn out. Given the numbers above thats interesting. Neither has he seemingly courted younger voters on other issues to encourage them to turnout. Again interesting decision.
Going back to the ancedote I confess I was slightly gobsmacked at what I was told above about this guys 'protest' - not quite believing it despite who told me and frankly I bet theres a bunch of people who read this post and say I'm making up bullshit. We've seen a lot of crap and unbelievable stuff around these parts and its still has the ability to take me by surprise.
I pointed out to the person who told me, that the psychology of the comment is utterly fascinating.
Women wanting to protest talk about dressing up as dinosaurs. But a male? No he talks about making a protest about voting whilst using his dick as part of it. Even if this is only a verbal comment and he has no intention whatsoever of doing it (no idea if dinosaur lady will actually do it either), its so revealling. The penis remains symbolic of male power over women. And actually thats where I do think its credible even as a random anecdote on the internet, because we keep seeing this pattern thanks to the likes JKR's bestie on twitter.
No one responded to this guy kicking off apparently. The group is liberal minded from what I'm told, they are notably younger than me, but apparently theres a certain amount of eye rollers in it regardless.
Its fascinating to see how the issue of women's rights has slowly crept up the agenda at this election. Those intention to vote figures do give a huge insight into whats going on. I was watching one of the political shows last night and 'transrights' came one of the most talked about subjects - it was also the one people thought was being talked about too much. I don't quite get why people were saying this - is it because they think trans rights is being pushed too hard and is a threat or is it disillusionment with women campaigners trying to protect rights (it could be either or both and a problem with how the question was worded so I'm cautious here).
But yes, interesting for political nerds like me.
Go vote. Vote for who you want. Spoiling is better than not spoiling as it shows your vote is available to those who want to court your concerns.