New statistics realised of reported murders of trans people

[IwantToRetire]

Thought I would post this, as it is a question that comes up on occassions.

Globally, at least 320 trans and gender-diverse people were reported murdered between 1 October 2022 and 30 September 2023.

Globally, 48% of murdered trans people whose occupation is known were sex workers. That figure jumps to more than three-quarters - some 78% - in Europe.

On the continent as well as in the wider global community, racism-motivated murders have risen 15% from last year - up 65% in 2022 to 80% now.

The vast majority of victims identified as trans women or trans feminine people and most of the murdered people were under 25 years old.

At a time of significant conflict globally, the fact that 45% of trans people reported murdered in Europe were migrants or refugees is especially stark.

TGEU say the data surrounding the murders suggest there are concerning trends when it comes to the intersections of misogyny, racism, xenophobia, and whorephobia.

The majority of victims were Black and trans women of colour, and trans sex workers - many killed in Europe were migrants or refugees too.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/trans-murders-remain-consistently-high-052004682.html

Well you'd think but they probably enrage their attackers more than women do. The sort of guy who's desperate enough to pay for sex isn't going to be impressed which what he 'bought' was what it said on the tin.

This.

It's not clear how often that happens outside places like Thailand as mentioned by a PP.

There is certainly a market for trans prostitutes and I wouldn't assume that most of these men don't know exactly what they are buying.

@NoMoreRedWineforFreda

Thanks for sharing the link on Aidan. What a tragic waste of such a beautiful, talented soul. His poor mum, my heart goes out to her.

😂

Have only just had time to come back to this thread since posting late last night and haven't had time to read all posts, but from the 1st page some very relevant comments made.

And to be clear I didn't post to gloat, or anything like that, but because so often it is stated that the trans community are disproportionately impacted by violence and murder.

So (and I am sure someone has already said this or maybe it in the orginal text) the figure that should be investigated is whether proportionally trans people are have a higher incident of death by murder than other groups / class of people. If they can collect figures on deaths in the trans community than it implies they have some idea of who the trans community is.

I'll save you some time. The number provided doesn't indicate a higher risk for trans people but the number alone isn't particularly informative and what's needed is for studies to be carried out to collect relevant data. Now, if only that could happen. I'd support such data collection and I suspect most on here would agree.

I am not even remotely convinced that men who use trans prostitutes are surprised by what they find.

I think men kill prostitutes because it’s easy for them to do so.

The point about presenting these numbers surely must be to suggest that they are particularly high AND that the killings are based on the victim being trans.

But there is data suggesting that neither of these can be shown to be correct.

Where we do have relatively good data on homicide rates (for all and for men and women etc.) and the likely size of the groups for which we wish to compare the numbers we find that the transgender demographic is a safe one, with rates of homicide lower than the overall average and certainly lower than the male overall rate.

I calculated, for the US and 2022 what numbers of killings of transgender individuals would have been expected if that sub-population had the same risk of becoming a homicide victim than the general population. That expected number was around 120, while the actual number was around 30-40.

Even if not all trans homicide victims are recorded as having been trans it seems unlikely that the true number would have exceeded 120. In my opinion.

So, overall trans people are quite safe which is great.

It's also the case that most transgender people are killed for similar reasons the average homicide victim is killed, i.e., not necessarily for being transgender. Yet we are expected to draw the conclusion that it is the latter in all the cases. I am certain that some killings of trans people are hate crimes based on transphobia, just as some killings of women are based on just misogyny, but the activists argue that for all trans killings.

The way intersectionality is often used now really annoys me, because we are not told how much each of the intersecting forces influences the thing we are evaluating, say, homicide rates. Instead, the implicit suggestion is that each of them always worsens the overall rate.

But that is not something we can just assume. It needs research, and it is quite possible that in some cases the findings are that only one of the forces we are looking at matters.

Also, to study the effect of being transgender for the homicide victimisation data, we should ideally begin by comparing people who are otherwise exactly the same except for their declared gender identity or sex.

So compare, say, a trans woman prostitute from a racial minority working in a certain area with a male prostitute from the same racial minority working in the same area or a female prostitute from the same racial minority working in the same area.

This should tell us how much race, sex and gender identity each matter in the final outcome.

Then, depending on what we find, do further analysis about how people end up in prostitution and if that process differs for transgender women, men, and women, to see if more indirect discriminatory forces are at play here.

That is the ideal and we can't usually quite get there, but good data and careful methodology should get us fairly close to that.

I think your assumptions there are likely to be correct.

I think what is surprising, well not really because we know the media likes to whip up a storm about how trans is the most persecuted community in the whole entire world, universe, the galaxy and beyond, is that there are reports dating back ot 2017 by US Government departments pointing out that compared to "cis" people murdered the rate is lower.

Just a selection of more recently analysis, so taken to together how come the media still buys into this myth?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5551594/

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-how-many-trans-people-murdered-uk

https://fairplayforwomen.com/trans-murder-rates/

https://unherd.com/2022/01/the-truth-about-trans-murders/

Quantitative illiteracy, combined with fear of the very vicious activists?

I did some rough calculations for Europe (which could be wrong as I have a bad cold) with the 16 reported trans victims in 2023. Suppose the trend continues to the end of the year so that the total number of trans victims of homicide for 2023 is, say, 22.

The overall homicide rate in Europe is 3 in 100 000 and the total European population size is around 742-745 million.

It's hard to get estimates of the trans population size, but I used a low estimate of 0.6% of total European population (as that favours the original argument that the rate is high; other estimates are 2-3%). If you use these data together you get an expected rate for trans homicides between 133 and 134 per year.

That is much higher than the actual rate. It's unlikely that so many of the victims would be unidentified as trans that we would climb past those figures by 1/1 2024 .

If this is correct it is good news for transgender people as their demographic is, on the overall level, fairly safe from homicide.

If this is correct it is good news for transgender people as their demographic is, on the overall level, fairly safe from homicide.

Exactly, your rough calculations tally with the others. That if you really want to play this statistical game it is more dangerous to be "cis". And even though we dont have that identity, it only goes to show how "brave" we are, but we never get the applause.

It's worse than that men who buy sex kill prostitutes because they're available and vulnerable.

Or that men who buy sex are an unpleasant group and so have a higher murdering rate.

There's actually evidence that the buying of sex itself reduces empathy and makes bad tendencies in these men more dangerous.

But trans activists support sex buying, so they don't say this.

I don't dispute that.

But - and I say this gently - I don't think there is a great deal that ordinary people in the UK can or should do about the safety of trans people or the way in which murders are recorded in other countries.

If a trans person or anyone who considers themselves a trans ally wants to light a candle on Transgender Day of Remembrance and think about the unknown number of trans prostitutes who were murdered in Brazil last year, that's fine.

But when these statistics, such as they are, are being used by trans rights lobby groups and reported by the mainstream media in countries like the UK in order to paint a false picture that trans people are especially vulnerable to violence and murder, that's not fine. Because in the UK and other comparable countries, it is not true. And this falsehood is being used to emotionally blackmail women into accepting that we must welcome trans people into all women's spaces which were created for women's safety and dignity, on the grounds that trans people are more vulnerable than we are and so we must be kind and put them first. They are not more vulnerable than we are. Not in the UK, and not in the vast majority of other western democracies either.

What an unpleasant thread. What's the point of it exactly?

@HiddenLegoOuch "I’ve never heard of “whorephobia” before."

Me neither. And I'd be more than happy never to hear it again!

The point is that the risk of violence against trans people is being grossly exaggerated by activists who want women to believe that trans people are the most vulnerable so we feel less entitled to stand up for our own rights and safety.

Isn't that obvious?

The frequent use of ‘genocide’ to describe trans deaths I’d imagine. The suggestion that they are in fact the most vulnerable group.
The downplaying of the fact is much more dangerous to be born a woman.

What an unpleasant thread. What's the point of it exactly?

Debunking myths used to emotionally blackmail.

But - and I say this gently - I don't think there is a great deal that ordinary people in the UK can or should do about the safety of trans people or the way in which murders are recorded in other countries.

Oh, absolutely. I agree with everything you say in your post. The idea that people in the UK are somehow responsible for the fact that male-to-female prostitutes are being murdered in Brazil is ludicrous. Obviously the UK is a very safe place to be trans, which you'd think trans people would be happy about, but apparently not.

I am interested in statistics though - how they're collected, how reliable they are, what they can and can't tell us, so from that point of view I am curious about what the real rate of trans homicide might be globally and how you would set about finding it out.

to give women the arguments to counter the emotional blackmail done on why we must accept male people in our services, facilities and sports.

TRA: you are being mean to a vulnerable group that is literally being killed (genocide) so you shouldn't object to transwomen. Government, you need to change the law so women legally can't object anymore.

Women: here are the arguments why this group is not vulnerable so there is no reason to change the law and women can object

A good piece by Jo Bartosch last year

"Some of those marking Transgender Day of Remembrance have sought to highlight ‘hate crimes’ against trans people more broadly, rather than murders. On Sunday, shadow women and equalities secretary Anneliese Doddsds_ tweeted: ‘Hate crimes reported against trans people rose by 56 per cent last year… Labour will tackle this rising hate by ensuring those who commit anti-LGBT+ hate crimes get longer sentences.’

The trouble with this claim is that hate-crime statistics are extremely unreliable. The Home Office’s recent annual reportrt_ on hate crime says it is ‘uncertain’ to what extent there has been any genuine rise in hate crime in recent years. It also says that the police-recorded data quoted by Dodds ‘do not currently provide reliable trends in hate crime’."

https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/11/22/transgender-day-of-remembrance-is-a-ghoulish-spectacle/amp/

That was really interesting- thanks for sharing. How refreshing that the writer really took their time to dig down into the statistics and look at what is (or isn’t) happening, despite much pressure from their own side to sing from the ‘Trans most oppressed’ hymn sheet.