GuanYinShanxi believes that it is mainly paedophiles who would falsely claim to be trans in order to try to get accommodated in a Women's Prison.
By "paedophiles" I assume GuanYin means "men who have been convicted of sexually assaulting and raping children", which will certainly include paedophiles but it is not only paedophiles who sexually assault and rape children. This is an important distinction.
Firstly, "paedophilia" is not a criminal offence, it is a psychiatric diagnosis. Similarly with men who rape elderly women: it is generally recognised that they have chosen their victims for their vulnerability, rather than because the rapists are "gerontophiles".
Secondly, some people disgustingly suggest that it is OK to incarcerate men convicted of sex crimes against children in Women's Prisons because they are "paedophiles" and therefore of no danger to adult women. It is not OK to incarcerate any man in a Women's Prison but this argument is flawed anyway because many men who commit sex crimes against children are not "paedophiles", they are sexual sadists and opportunists.
eg. Bestiality seems to be quite popular with trans sex offenders
https://transcrimeuk.com/category/sexual-offences/bestiality/
Finally, possession of child abuse materials has been found to be a better predictor of paedophilia than actual sex attacks on children. This is not to say that paedophiles do not attack children but that men who sexually assault and rape children are less likely to be paedophiles than men who "only" or also collect child abuse materials.
Anyway, GuanYinShanxi has not presented any data to support the hypothesis that men convicted of sex crimes against children are more likely to be "fake trans" than "real trans" and that they "fake being trans" in order to be transferred to a Women's Prison for their own protection. These men are also normally housed in separate accommodation on the Men's Prison Estate if they are at risk of violence from other prisoners so they are already given protection by the prison service.
However, it would still be useful to know how many male prisoners claiming to be trans have been convicted of sex offences against children.
Something we do know is that judges sometimes chose not to sentence some trans males (and females) to prison, for the very reason that they are "trans", whether:
- taking "struggling with gender identity issues" in mitigation
- or stating that the perpetrator would be "vulnerable" in prison because they are trans (ignoring that the prison service protects "vulnerable" prisoners)
- or that they don't know whether they should be sentenced to a Men's or Women's prison - even though it is not judges who make that decision.
Maybe judges are equally reluctant to sentence some "non-trans" convicted sex offenders to prison and give other reasons for leniency?
Something else we know is that trans advocacy organisations such as Press For Change have been lobbying since at least the mid 1990's for "trans offenders" to be spared prison, ie. in circumstances where others would be incarcerated. Also that they and other "trans advocates" have been training the judiciary for decades.
As Old Crone has pointed out, Press for Change's broad definition of "trans people" in 1996, encompassing cross-dressers, has been widely adopted. Transvestites who adopt a female name and stereotypical female garb in the gap between arrest and court appearance are considered by the MOJ to be "transgender women" if they say so.
Although all that is actually required are the magic words, "I am trans" or "I identify as a woman": that is all that the perp does in some cases. No splashing out on a "Woman Wardrobe", adopting a different name or shaving off the beard for convicted "transgender woman" sex offender Stuart Bulling:
https://transcrimeuk.com/2023/06/25/stuart-bulling/
The most high profile case of a trans cross-dresser criminal is that of Jamie Wallis MP, who has not even bothered to change his name, still uses male pronouns and goes to work at Parliament dressed like any other bloke.
When arrested for a driving offence he was dressed in such a way that a bystander said he thought he saw, "a prostitute running up the road". Jamie says he is "trans" so therefore he is trans and he was charged, prosecuted and convicted in the same name he was elected to Parliament: no "Jessica" or "Tiffany" for Jamie.
Jamie is not "pretending to be trans" because "trans" includes cross-dressers. He does not have to claim to be a woman to qualify as "trans", although should he at some point be given a prison sentence perhaps the old "identifying as a woman" option will kick in?
Going back to the original question, "Why are so many transgender prisoners sex offenders?" and bearing in mind the stats workups
by Signalbox
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/womens_rights/4896553-mary-harrington-why-are-so-many-transgender-prisoners-sex-offenders?page=2&reply=129232460
and Old Crone
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/womens_rights/4896553-mary-harrington-why-are-so-many-transgender-prisoners-sex-offenders?page=2&reply=129232765
We are talking about males in this instance because a similar analysis has not been done for females.
Is a male who claims to be trans who is living in the community more or less or equally likely as any other male living in the community to be a sex offender, including offences against children?
Given that judges are known to be lenient with "trans people" and sometimes spare a "trans person" a prison sentence when they have been convicted of a sex crime, including against children, we know that there are convicted sex offenders who are trans who are given a community order sentence when non-trans offenders would have been committed to prison.
This means that the figures produced by Signalbox and OldCrone are probably an under-estimation of the number of trans sex offenders because they are based on prison stats, ie. they do not include convicted trans sex-offenders who were given a non-custodial sentence in circumstances where a non-trans perp would have been sentenced to prison.
The "Get Out of Jail Free" tag on TransCrimeUK is not a reliable "count the heads" indicator because
a) it does not include all trans sex offenders who were spared a prison sentence explicitly for a "trans-related reason", and
b) most of those listed have multiple convictions and the "Get Out of Jail Free" tag might have been applied in relation to a crime that was not prosecuted under the Sexual Offences Act.
Here is the list if anyone wants to trawl through it (there are currently three pages, click "Older posts" at the bottom of the first two pages)
https://transcrimeuk.com/tag/get-out-of-jail-free-card/
Those tagged "Get Out of Jail Free" who have been convicted of sex crimes are highlighted in the images attached.