Tory meltdown hurting our chances to turn Labour round?

[teawamutu]

Something I'm worrying about - the Tory shitshow is so comprehensive it's looking like Labour just have to hang on until the next election and step into government. Doesn't give them much incentive to listen to women, does it?

I hope I'm wrong but it's on my mind.

I know what you mean op. Been thinking along similar lines myself. I think there will be time though as a general election doesn’t seem so near and Labour need to look at what the tories did well as well as what they have been doing badly. I really hope they do as they can have the mumsnet vote with bells on if they only figure out what a woman is….

I also know what you mean op. Before BJ was ousted I thought that it looked as if the Tories might achieve something useful in their last 2 years of power that it would be hard for Labour to undo once they came to power. I think that they are firefighting now though and the harm that gender ideology is doing to children will not be a priority for them because it is unlikely to make any real difference at the next election. At this point it looks as if the next government will be a labour one so self-ID is guaranteed and we will just have to live with the consequences of that. Hopefully the Cass Review is completed within this government so it isn’t brushed under the carpet.

Labour hasn't done anything to increase its electoral appeal or even to clarify its policies.

It is simply the recipient of a massive protest vote.

You sum up my exact fear - the Tories won't have time or interest to lock in protections, and Labour will actively dismantle them asap.

Gaaah. We'd come so far.

Protest vote in terms of indicating intention, do you mean? As in, might not result in actual votes?

At least we will have the Cass Review as an anchor point.

And the Casey Review re the Met Police and misogyny & racism.

I think it’s a long road til the next election and it is far from certain that Labour will win. People have short memories unfortunately. I just don’t want the tories but we can’t have self ID so we need to work harder than ever to get the awareness point over the line….

This has been my worry too, I just hope this current lot shore up the government long enough to prevent a snap election.

Even with the Tories there is talk of a Sunak/Mordant leadership. You can already see the effect of Mordant's malignent toxicity in that recent Times article calling for the government to fudge the issue. Any cabinet with her in it will derail reforms.

Yes I'm really worried now. My only hope is Starmer now has an incentive to clean house in order not to lose. Considering the many loose cannons in his party eg Eddie Izzard and the Labour LBGT twitter feed he could still not gain enough votes when push comes to shove.
Need to maintain the pressure and spotlight on Women's Rights.

Delusional to hope for anything from Labour or any single party in my opinion. They will all sell their mothers at the first sniff of power. I think the only possible hope is some serious cross party co-operation. And I don't just mean Labour Women retweeting Conservative Women. I think we're all going to have to get a lot smarter, more creative, work together, pool information, vote tactically. And have a further plan if it doesn't work.

A Labour win is definitely on the cards. However there is the growing strength of Labour's Women's Declaration to consider too. More MPs than ever have come out in support at Conference we have about 6 openly and there are by all accounts another 30 to 40 secret Terfy Labour MPs. A lot of other MPs may be shiftable too. With them, remaining Tories, Terfy SNP MPs plus the House of Lords a long debate in Parliament over Self ID may result in a bunch of amendments and backtracking. A bill may fail or get amended so much it is meaningless. Unlike the Scottish Parliament we have a big base of people who are going to raise hell over any bill in Westminster. Labour are also not going to make it priority legislation. If they even get round to pushing it, they will have a lot of other stuff to worry about. Plus by then Cass Report will be in, Mermaids might be gone and there will be more detrans news.

What is crucial is gaining more power in the party at all levels that can flip others, there are people who just need a chance to express doubt so they can peak. The most fanatical trans rights types in Labour are mostly on the party left so they are getting weaker. We have advantages in that the TRAs all regard Starmer as effectively a Terf and hate him because he tolerates Rosie etc. The reality is Starmer doesn't care about us or TRAs particularly. He only cares about winning power. It is other people in the party pushing this. The TRAs are so fanatical they will alienate people over time. Just turning up can make TRAs leave the party, many have already gone just like in the Greens. We need more people in the party to fight locally and at conference. Even before election party members get to have input on policy and on the manifesto. Lots of chances to kick up a fuss and debate. Also remember another key Labour policy is a crusade against violence against women - obviously this raises questions like what is a women and why if the violent person is trans do they get special treatment?

labour.org.uk/ending-violence-against-women-and-girls/

As Floisme said we need a coordinated effort to start debate in every constituency not just in Labour but every party. Make sure it isn't a one party issue. Get every candidate to place their cards on the table on prisons, sport, self id, mermaids etc.

I respect your point of view fromorbit and I have a lot of time for the Labour Women's Declaration but I'm sorry, I'm not placing my trust in 30-40 MPs who are too chicken shit scared to support us in public.

And whatever the current polls may say, I'm not sure either that Labour are quite the shoo-in they seem to think they are. To be sure we can expect a big backlash against the government, including protest votes from Conservatives, but what I'm not convinced of is how much of that vote will go to Labour. As things stand at the moment I think some kind of centre-left coalition arrangement is more likely.

I also believe that, whoever ends up in controll, the next Parliament will see an attempt to get self ID into law. This is why I think we've got to work cross party. The only way forward I can see - and it might not work - is to identify supporters on all sides of the house and do our damnest to vote them in. And yes, we'll need alliances in the House of Lords too although I get the impression they're already happening.

I don't like the torys.

But i understand the importance of an opposition to hold the government to account.

The idea of tory wipe out scares me tbh.

I'm worried it's going to be less than two years as the Conservatives are on self-destruct mode. A general election could be forced if there's a vote of no confidence, I think?

At least with two years, the tide is turning, people are waking up, court cases are being won etc. Look where we were 2 years ago. I feel like we need to be cautiously optimistic about what can be achieve in the next two years.

Ffs, the idea that the Tories have womens backs is absolutely laughable. How much poverty have they inflicted on women and children? They've practically legalised rape, cut police, courts and health services to the bone, they've even made collecting child support and escaping domestic abuse harder. And as for the trans mess, that has massively accelerated UNDER THE TORIES! Seld ID was a Tory idea. They are NOT the saviours of women's and children's rights and have plenty of TWAW believers in their ranks.

Whether the government survives or not, there's bound to be a dogfight as to who comes out on top, plus a lot of 'friends' calling in favours afterwards. Whatever happens and whoever ends up in power in 2 years time, I think we need to brace ourselves for an attempt to legislate self ID, and plan accordingly.

Yup, completely terrifying set of options. Tories messing up this badly means we will get Labour and they haven’t changed their self ID policy for a tight election or anything so we are royally screwed every which way now.

Damn. We need Liz Truss to remain as PM as she has already done so much for the women of the UK.

If Truss believed doing a deal with someone like Penny Mordaunt would help her survive then she'd do it.
I don't think we're screwed necessarily but I'm beginning to despair of this belief that any single party of any hue is going to help us.

despair of this belief that any single party of any hue is going to help us

Well one has it part of their election promise ti introduce self ID and the other has ruled it out. That’s the very least we need, is no self ID.

Self ID was a Tory idea that they had a consultation on, listened to the feedback and ditched. Despite that and public opposition, Labour are still going ahead with it. Without maintaining a clear definition of women and girls and then protecting our existing rights, there is no campaigning for women for any of our needs or issues. If men can be women then there’s no such thing as women’s rights.

This is precisely my fear. Where I feel slightly (though not very) hopeful is in the following:

1. The final Cass review will probably be damning enough about the Tavi GIDS service that it will bring an end to putting children on puberty blockers and hormones, and therefore the whole transing of children, medically and socially, will come to a gradual end.
2. Maybe the Charities Commission investigation will see off Mermaids.
3. When the fashion among young people for identifying as trans fades out (as it probably will without Mermaids and GIDS and the whole social/medical pipeline), the enthusiasm for trans "rights" amongst the young will probably fade too.
4. Without a bunch of zealous young people pushing the cause, what remains of trans activism will be a bunch of middle-aged biological males pushing their right to use women's changing rooms. From the point of view of a Labour government, the optics of pandering to this group are not great.

That's my most optimistic take about what will happen. Lots of "ifs" in there, though.

I hope you are right and believe that is the direction of travel. Shame so many will be harmed in the meantime.

Not sure that anyone is suggesting that the tories have women’s backs, just that on this particular issue they are doing less harm than Labour have promised to do. Plus that the time we have between now and a Labour government could potentially be used to shore up women’s rights so it will be more difficult for Labour to demolish them when they come to power. One only has to look at Canada to see the damage that the left can do whilst pretending to be pro women.