Tory meltdown hurting our chances to turn Labour round?

[teawamutu]

Something I'm worrying about - the Tory shitshow is so comprehensive it's looking like Labour just have to hang on until the next election and step into government. Doesn't give them much incentive to listen to women, does it?

I hope I'm wrong but it's on my mind.

She didn't get that far because she was already thoroughly fucked.

And people like BJ. The MPs themselves may well think they made a mistake getting rid of him, driven mainly by the media. If he doesn't go for the leadership again - and I have no special reason to think he would - the person he backs may have a real advantage. He actually has a lot of political nous, his problem is his personal foibles.

He does? When did he say that?

@MangyInseam, she was the third most popular member among MPs. The second most popular MP resigned today. Mordaunt is now top 2.

We are fucked. No amount of wishful thinking changes that. We are fucked.

Oh well, if Mordaunt wins the whole debate about who is better on this issue will evaporate. Mordaunt will bring in Labour policy for them. And they will cheer her on.

Mordaunt is a tax cutter. It's the Tory MPs who will put the brakes on her ambition, after the Truss fiasco.

Urgh @teawamutu sorry can't find that and take it back.

I also can't see either Boris or Penny making the 100 nominations cut.

The early declarations are the fan boys/girls and we've yet to see a sustained sway from a majority of MP's.

There will be a lot of horse trading going on behind the scenes right now and many MP's will be keeping quiet fir the moment.

Personally I think (hope) a majority will unite behind Sunak. The question is if it will be enough to result in him being "crowned" without a party membership vote.

That said, even if it comes to that I suspect the membership might feel bruised enough over their support for Truss not to gamble on Mordant. Yes, she did relatively well last time, but a lot of questions were raised and frankly Sunak predicted the economic mess and that will hold him in good stead.

As for Boris, I can't see him getting to 100 - that said these are crazy times.

If they do bring him back I don't think the Tory part has a chance in hell re: the next GE.

You can't oust a PM (who is still under investigation) and then bring him bank all sins forgiven.

Tory MP's and Party members need to reflect on the past 2 years and learn some hard lessons.

Most of all, given the shit we are in, it's no time for experimentation or being gleeful about rehabilitation of a relic.

Like him or not, Sunak will have the most credibility with the markets.

The only other scenario imho is if Wallace decides to run and if so, I think there's are good chance he'd be seen as a solid unity candidate.

Current Guido count:

44/29/15 to Boris, with the majority of Whips reportedly on Boris’ column already.

I should say it FEELS like it's turning here in Scotland. Dyed in the wool SNP members say to me that they are never going to vote SNP again after the GRN / self ID policy. Labour are in the same boat but very very slowly waking up and listening to cross-party women activists in Scotland. That's my feeling anyway.

Just thinking about Starmer's speech in the light of all that's been happening. Is it about money? The Labour Party's coffers are empty - they need backers and I wouldn't be surprised if trans supporters in many areas might come forward if he does what they want.

I can't think of any other reason he'd ignore Labour women, I don't for a minute he really believes all this.

Perhaps. Awards ceremonies such as last night’s are really only about buttering up those able to make corporate sponsorship deals by introducing them to celebs and letting them stand on a red carpet for a few minutes.

Perhaps Starmer was pitching at Pink News’ advertisers?

Great move. Labour are going to gain more power soon. They already run Wales and most major cities. They have to be fought from within as well as without.

No need to fear being expelled. Tonia is shadow minister for Northern Ireland being a terf is fine. No-one gender crit has been booted out unless they upset the Labour hierarchy in some other way. You just need to keep things neutral but firm, and expect a lot of sexist crap - but guess what that is nothing new in the Labour party. There must be 1000s of open terfs in Labour right now MPs, Lords, Councillors, ordinary members. Loads signed the Labour Women's Declaration and said back us or expel us. The hierarchy decided to neither back women OR expel them.

What they are counting on was they can play off both sides against each other. Starmer can pull stunts like Pink News, but he works with Terfs happily, he just is too cowardly to back them openly. So it is up to GCs in the party to raise the stakes make it clear that Starmer and others need to admit JKR was correct, and TRAs were backing child mutilation and undermining real safeguarding.

For every open gender crit person in the party there are tonnes of secret terfs in Labour at local party level. They don't speak out because they are scared and feel alone. If they start acting up Starmer knows he can't afford to get rid of them. Remember too most Muslim members 100% believe there are only 2 sexes and Labour can't survive without their support. There are tonnes of evangelical Christians in Labour, many black, who think the same way, Marsha de Cordova is a prime example.

Look what Gender crit people have done inside the Greens. They caused the Scottish party to split from the English/Welsh party. All they had to do was literarily turn up and say things and the TRAs went crazy. Because women speaking their minds and not being silenced is terrifying to these people. We can do the same in Labour. In fact it will be even easier. Because a lot of ordinary Labour members are pretty socially conservative. They don't hate sexual minorities, but they want women and kids kept safe. i.e they are normal people.

JK Rowling was right. Every day she gets more right. We just need enough people on the ground in every CLP ready to speak up.

It’s looking like those who stressed about Mordaunt needn’t have worried so early

update

Johnson 52
Sunak 41
Mordaunt 17

Josiah Mortimer at josiahmortimer
Privileges committee insider tells The Sun that No 10’s own evidence handed to the privileges committee is so damning it is likely to lead to a Commons suspension of the person leading the leadership race by some counts: Boris Johnson

George Trefgarne at georgetrefgarne
Everybody keeps messaging me saying “no more experiments” and “no more nutters please”.

Anyone but most of the party. God no to Braverman!

Interesting to see Cons polling at 15% and LD at 11%.

But more that that, predictions put the SNP with the second most seats at a general. Thus technically making them become the official opposition!! This gives them certain privileges and number of debates in the HoC. The % of the vote and number of seats affects how much airtime the BBC give them as the BBC being impartial look at these to decide this. It would also attract a lot more party donations to other parties.

Interesting times.

I think the more inevitable it is that Labour will win the next election the more this idea (of resistance within) will become the only sensible option. Obviously that will only work if people start speaking out though! Someone has posted a Times article about Spain this morning. Seems that the Left there are throwing some unexpected spanners in the works on Self ID and reducing the age to 16. It’ll be interesting to see how that goes.

www.mumsnet.com/talk/womens_rights/4659803-the-times-spanish-trans-law-delayed-by-socialist-divisions

Will Boris standing screw Mordaunt?
Aaaaagh ....

Both a nightmare

Well, about that ...

We can do the same in Labour.
And the very best of luck to you, but nothing would induce me to rejoin the Labour Party. You might as well advise me to go back to an ex because he might still change if I worked a bit harder.

The only question for me is whether or not Labour will still get my vote. Arguments - admittedly from different posters - that I'm a) gullible and b) that I should put my faith in 30 or so MPs who are too scared to go public, are frankly not cutting it.

Arguments - admittedly from different posters - that I'm a) gullible and b) that I should put my faith in 30 or so MPs who are too scared to go public, are frankly not cutting it.

Exactly.

I will not vote for any party that has a policy that will remove some of my existing rights. Nobody would ask any other protected and vulnerable group to do that. Why should women?

@Floisme
Agreed!

For the first time in my adult life, if an election was called now, I would seriously consider not voting.

Up until a few weeks ago I would have voted tactically to keep the most alarming parties out of power. At this point, I honestly don't see any party that isn't a walking chimps tea party that shouldn't be in power.

Say Johnson wins. And does manage to turn the tory shit show around. Which isn't beyond the realms of possibility in my mind...

... Do you think it will focus Labour minds in terms of the lack of substance and avoidance of difficult subjects that they've perused for several years?

I was watching politics live the other day and there was a tory and a Labour MP. And they got onto the subject of the Single market. The tory said that the subject was incredibly sensitive for the party but admitted that he thought that a Norway type approach Inc the single market was a good idea. Meanwhile the Labour has clearly been briefed to avoid the subject completely and wouldn't be drawn at all apart from to say the party policy isn't to do that. The interviewer commented on the irony of seeing a tory more pro EU than a Labour politician.

The thing that's stuck with me on this is how its completely screwed in the head. There isn't any room for debate within Labour. It's repeat the party line by rout and being absolutely terrified at how the electorate might respond to you encouraging debate

Where they have policy they now actively crush any discussion about flaws which might help deal with any unintended consequences that the policy might have.

The trans stuff is particularly indicative of this, but it's certainly not the only subject (hence me mentioning above conversation about the EU).

What I'm finding particularly frustrating with opposition parties is this lack of commitment to debate which also makes it much harder to hold government to account where they should! Cos it might upset the bloody electorate!

Yet they then decide what they are prepared to also let the electorate talk about!! And what their own members can say.

Its bonkers and lacking in any responsibility or commitment to trying to engage with the public, to listen to it and ultimately be representative.

One of the questions of the week has been along these lines and what is the purpose of politicians? To rule or to serve?

Strangely, one reason why the Queen was successful was because she understood the optics of the difference between the two and she tried to drum this into Charles and William.

Labour isn't unique in this.

And ironically as much as i despise many many tory policies and think they have hugely damaged the party, i do admire their understanding on the importance of being able to have different opinions and encouraging debate to a level that I don't think exists in other parties anymore.

Its deeply troubling as a dynamic to see playing out in politics.