AmoraObscura
Discussing this elsewhere, met with "trans people are more at risk, they're more likely to be victims than perpetrators"
FlyingOink
Less likely to be murdered than any other group in the UK, iirc
Going back to this exchange upthread, a while back I did some sums using publicly available numbers. It's back-of-the-fag-packet kind of stuff and I'd love to see a thorough statistical analysis.
For the general population of England and Wales (E&W), the annual homicide rate for the year ending March 2016 for males (13.8 per million population) was more than twice that for females (6.0 per million population).
The transgender population of the UK is generally given as 0.3% to 0.5%[1] of the UK population. The male population of E&W is 32,000,000 - 2,600,000 (Scotland) = 29,400,000.
At the 0.3% level, then if we look only at male transgender people[2], their homicide is rate 11 per million of population. (0.3% of 29,400,000 males, so 88,000, so 1[3] in 88,000 which is 11 per million of the population). That is, comparing male transgender people with men, they are slightly less likely to be murdered. And comparing them with women, they are twice as likely to be murdered.
At the 0.5% level, for male transgender people[2] the homicide rate is 7 per million of population. (0.5% of 29,400,000 so 147,000, so 1[3] in 147,000 which is 7 per million of the population). That is, comparing male transgender people with men, they are half as likely to be murdered. And comparing them with women, their risk of being murdered is about the same.
If you want to look at the risk male transgender people face compared with the general population (men and women), at the 0.3% level their risk is about the same and at the 0.5% level, their risk is lower.
The reality depends on which percentage of the population figure is correct. However, at the 0.3%/0.5% level we are not looking at some great disproportion of the risk of murder for male transgender people.
[1] If the (also asserted) percentage of the population being transgender is 1% then the risk they face is much smaller (a half or (about) a third) than the numbers calculated above.
[2] This is based on the assumption that there are equal numbers of male transgender people and female transgender people. If there are more male transgender people then the risk they face is smaller than the numbers calculated above.
[3] This is based on the figure of an average of 1 transgender person being murdered in the UK (this is more than just E&W so the figure of 1 is probably a slight overestimate) per year. As far as I can tell, the victims tend to be male transgender people.