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UK transgender murder rate

(155 Posts)
pisacake Tue 07-Nov-17 13:58:07

According to this source, 8 transgender people have been murdered in the UK since 2008

Their list (taken from various PDFs on their site):

Vikki Thompson - not murder but accidental death, initially reported as suicide

Vanessa Santillan - killed by husband because of sex work

Jacqueline Cowdrey - found NOT to have been murdered

Chrissie Azzopardi - killed over drug debts

Lionel/Suzie Morl - described as transvestite, murdered by two Big Issue sellers (male & female) to live off his disability benefits

Sonia/David Burgess gender fluid lawyer killed by a gender fluid/trans client

Andrea Waddell - sex worker killed by customer. Customer claimed not to know Waddell was transsexual. "During the trial, jurors were asked to consider whether McMillan killed her after discovering she was transgender, or because she was unable to perform sexually for him because of physical ailments after illnesses including fibromyalgia."

Destiny Lauren sex worker - killed by customer Customer had previously sought the services of transsexual prostitutes going by the names of "Fransexual" and "VickisDomain"

So in summary, not 8 murders but 6, of which:

3 were sex workers killed because of their sex work
2 were killed for financial reasons
1 was killed by another transgender person

"A total of 152 UK sex workers have been murdered since 1990. According to the charity National Ugly Mugs, 85% of street prostitutes have experienced violence and only 25% of victims are willing to report crimes to the police."

There were around 571 homicides in the last year in England & Wales, that's approximately 1 per 100,000 people.

Thus over the 9 years 2008 to 2016, given six homicides, that implies a transgender murder rate of 0.67 per year, assuming transgender people are as likely to be killed as the rest of the country. That would suggest that there are only 67,000 transgender people in England & Wales.

However, the LOWEST estimate for transgender people is 0.1% (so around 57,000), and GIRES says it is 0.2% at the very minimum (so around 114,000).

Obviously given the tiny numbers you can't be too specific with these statistics, we aren't taking about a population (of murdered trans people) so much as vanishingly rare cases.

With regard to sex work, there are apparently around 72,800 sex workers in the UK of which 4% (approx 2900 are transgender).

Given the overall sex worker murder rate of ~6 per year, that implies 1 in every 12,000 sex workers will be murdered in any given year. Therefore given the 2900*9 = 26,100 transgender sex worker years in the period under study, we'd expect 26100/12000 = 2.175 murders of transgender sex workers. The total of 3 is very slightly above average in that respect, however statistically it's not even remotely significant (5 would be significant at the 95% confidence interval). I am not 100% clear if the case of Vanessa Santillan is included within the figures, as Santillan was murdered not by a client, but a jealous husband.

Also note that in general 1 in 780 people are sex workers (and sex workers have a homicide rate 8 times higher than the general population) but as many as 1 in 20 transgender people may be sex workers, so there will be a higher rate of murder.

Moreover, all of the murders were biologically male (and indeed most transgender people are male). The male murder rate is around 75% higher than the female murder rate in the country as a whole.

PotteringAlong Tue 07-Nov-17 13:59:39

What's your point?

Holowiwi Tue 07-Nov-17 14:01:10


stitchglitched Tue 07-Nov-17 14:02:59

Maybe the point is that when transactivists state they need access to women only spaces because they are at great risk of being killed otherwise, when writers for the Guardian state that transwomen are more at risk of violence than 'cis' women etc, it isn't actually true?

pisacake Tue 07-Nov-17 14:09:47

"What's your point?"

The point is that trans activists campaign that trans people are at risk and need access to women's spaces. To do this they claim sky-high murder rates, among other things.

If someone says 'we want in to women's spaces because we are being murdered left right and centre', then clearly it is necessary to check whether these claims are true or false.

As per my analysis they are completely false.

PotteringAlong Tue 07-Nov-17 14:14:37

But you didn't actually say that in your post...

pisacake Tue 07-Nov-17 14:17:26

The Women & Equalities Committee, for example stated in Parliament

"Trans people have long endured high levels of prejudice (referred to as “transphobia”) and misunderstanding. This is manifested in numerous forms, including discrimination in a wide range of settings (including public services), hostile portrayal in the media, abuse and violence (including, in some cases, sexual assault and murder)"

Also murders of transwomen in other countries are heavily publicised in the UK and used to justify a general atmosphere of 'we need more rights' specifically in the UK.

pisacake Tue 07-Nov-17 14:17:54

"But you didn't actually say that in your post..."

I thought it was obvious, sorry....

stitchglitched Tue 07-Nov-17 14:21:14

It just seems like anything that transactivists claim is accepted as fact, even by government committees. Surely a bit of basic fact checking should be in order first before such claims. Thank you for the stats, I can use them on twitter the next time I'm told feminists are literally murdering transwomen by not wanting them in their changing rooms. (The latest being Topshop who appear to be currently doing their best to alienate their entire customer base).

Datun Tue 07-Nov-17 14:26:25


Given the transgender marketing machine is powerful and prolific, I would have said any murders in the community, would have been shouted from the roof tops. So your statistics don’t come as much of a surprise. Thank you, very much for drilling down.

Standby for the goalposts to be moved though.

Because now it will be transphobic ‘incidents.’

Which, according to some guidelines sent to American school, I’ve just read, can include someone looking at you a bit ‘confused’.

I’d really like to see a breakdown of incidents from violence to confused looks.

Likewise the fact that stating biology is considered transphobic. They really don’t do themselves any favours.

It’s very enlightening when you actually analyse the stats.

Gingernaut Tue 07-Nov-17 14:32:41

What's the murder rate by transsexuals?

pisacake Tue 07-Nov-17 14:34:20

Yes the 'hate incidents' is a minefield. The police are constantly encouraging people to report hate crimes, however the result of increased reporting is that we have no way of knowing if there are more incidents or merely better reporting. That's why murder stats are so reliable, because there's no question of ever NOT reporting a murder.

I do wonder how the police would get on if every time a woman was subject to a look or a catcall, it was reported as a hate crime.

treaclesoda Tue 07-Nov-17 14:39:33

On Five Live this afternoon there was a MTT person who was guest editor for an hour. Out, repeatedly, came the claim that 'transgender people are actually dying' and various other claims that were in no way substantiated. Anyone who texted/tweeted/emailed with a comment that was in any way critical of the whole trans agenda was sneered at and dismissed as a bigot.

Why are people allowed to come on the radio and spout completely spurious 'facts' without any sort of proof? angry

TheSmallClangerWhistlesAgain Tue 07-Nov-17 14:45:10

None of these people were murdered by radical feminists. Radfems aren't literally killing trans people, punters are.

Datun Tue 07-Nov-17 14:51:23

I genuinely don’t understand how radical feminists are being blamed for male trans deaths. The theory being that as we consider them men, that leads to their death.

If the problem is that a punter will find out they are male and go into a frenzy of rage, presumably it’s the very act of lying to them in the first place, maintaining they’re female, that produces the rage?

I’m not for a single second suggesting that the reason transwomen are killed is because of them, they are killed because punters kill.

But why the insistence that it’s about their status as men, instead of women?

pisacake Tue 07-Nov-17 15:04:03

"What's the murder rate by transsexuals?"

Will vary depending if you accept the trans ideology that they were 'assigned male at birth', and have 'always been a woman'. Because some murderers trans in prison.

Transgender when killing:

Kayleigh Woods 2016 - committed 'Barbie doll' murder of woman
Claire Derbyshire 2015 - murdered own father
Graham Cleary-Senior 2015 - killed wife
Jenny Swift 2015 - deranged killing of 'gentle' man
Paris Green 2013 - - tortured victim
Melissa Young 2013 - killed over crap Christmas present
Senthooran/Nina Kanagasingham 2010 - as above, killed gender variant lawyer
Alan Baker 2012 - killed online (gay) date
Colin Coats 2011 - brutally murdered woman after land deal
Paul Hayhurst 2010 - killed his boyfriend
Joyce Boyd 2008 - killed woman because he was scared she would reveal he was trans. Multiple rapes, attempted murders, going back decades.

Transsed in prison
Christopher Hunnissett 2012 - castrated himself in 2017, and hence now a 'woman'
Sarah Baker 2008 killed inmate, got NHS sex change in 2013

So that's (at least, this is not a professional monitoring option!) 13 murderers and only six victims over the same period. That is a statistically significant difference showing that people are more at risk of being murdered by transgender people than transgender people are of at risk of being murdered.

Datun Tue 07-Nov-17 15:11:45

That is a statistically significant difference showing that people are more at risk of being murdered by transgender people than transgender people are of at risk of being murdered.

Because they’re men.

It really, really wipes the floor with the argument to allow transwomen into women’s spaces, because they are at risk.

The opposite is true.

We are demonstrably more at risk from them!

DonkeySkin Tue 07-Nov-17 15:24:25

What's your point?

The allegedly high murder rate suffered by trans males is consistently used as a bludgeon against women who raise any concerns about the impact of the trans agenda on women. The implication is that we are being bad, selfish females for thinking about our own rights and safety when there are males who are suffering so.

Whenever women point to the dangers of self-ID for women, INVARIABLY someone will chime in, 'Trans women are at much greater risk for murder than cis women! They face staggering levels of violence!' Not only is this disgusting sexist guilt-tripping (playing on women's socialisation to put ourselves last), it's demonstrably false. And this lie needs to be called out as such, as it's become such potent propaganda for trans activists.

As pisacake's analysis shows, there is no epidemic of transphobia-inspired murders in the UK. There is, however, a clear increasing trend of male murderers, rapists and pedophiles identifying as 'transwomen':

Thank you pisacake for this valuable analysis of the stats.

pisacake Tue 07-Nov-17 15:34:40

"Because they’re men."

Yes I suppose that's the reason (there could be others such as comorbid mental disorders, dodgy off-prescription meds, etc., but that's the most basic)!

If we know that 90% of murderers are male but only 67% of victims are male, then in a population of men there will be more murderers than there are murder victims.

Because the excess victims are of course all women.

Gingernaut Tue 07-Nov-17 15:40:23

What about trans men?

The rate of FtM transsexuals must be different, surely?

Sorry, on a bus with limited wifi and on a 'phone - my Googling ability is severely restricted. blush

StoatofDisarray Tue 07-Nov-17 15:44:39

I want to second Datun's thanks for the data mining. Your point was obvious to me, too. hmm

sagamartha Tue 07-Nov-17 15:44:51

To do this they claim sky-high murder rates, among other things

Given the very very low murder rate in this country for anyone, then it's going to be hard to draw any conclusions about the murder of trans people in the UK as the numbers of trans people are very low (and given the fact that people don't know how many trans people there are and struggle with the definition of trans).

I can imagine that trans sex workers are at risk of violence and assault - as are sex workers in general - given the nature of what they do.

pisacake Tue 07-Nov-17 15:44:52

Which rate? There are neither murders by FtM trans people nor murders of FtM trans people.

However most trans people are MtF in the first place.

Elendon Tue 07-Nov-17 15:46:27

This is a great thread on the statistical analysis regarding the murder of transgender people in the UK.

Can't understand why some posters don't see the 'point'.

sagamartha Tue 07-Nov-17 15:49:17

Thus over the 9 years 2008 to 2016, given six homicides, that implies a transgender murder rate of 0.67 per year, assuming transgender people are as likely to be killed as the rest of the country

As you pointed out, it's very difficult to draw any conclusions about the trans murder rate given the low numbers who are killed and the low numbers of trans people.

The UK murder rate is very very very low. (10 murders per million population in 2015)

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