I think the pace of social change in Ireland in the last 20 years has been breathtaking. And much, much quicker than in NI (which, granted, not a shining light, but still part of the UK). If you think about it the divorce referendum, which was bitterly contested, was only about 20 years ago. Now they've (would like to say "we've", but I don't live there any more!) legalised gay marriage by public vote, and may well improve reproductive rights. I think the outcome will depend on the question that is asked, but I remain cautiously optimistic that we still tend to underestimate how far we've come.
The influence of the church has waned considerably, even compared to when I left Dublin 10 years ago. I had a civil wedding 6 years ago and it caused much hilarity and consternation. My sister is planning the same next summer and no one has batted an eyelid. The child sex abuse scandals (which shamed us, but now it seems every country has some shame in that regard unfortunately) rocked the public view of the church, people just aren't willing to be dictated to in the same way any more.
As some of you will know, there was a citizen's convention on abortion rights last year (?). The big question was whether it would recommend the removal of the 8th, and what restrictions would it place on abortion (12 weeks? Rape? Incest? FFA?). In the end, the recommendation was to allow full abortion rights on demand up to 40 weeks. I read an article where participants had been interviewed, a number had gone in with strong "pro-life" sentiments, but their views had been swayed by testimony from medical professionals and they now firmly believed in trusting women and their doctors to choose. Nothing emotive. If we can keep the discourse over the next few months in that line, I think there's an excellent chance.
Yes, this will be a brutal fight. It's going to be a long ten months until the vote. But if we can try and keep it civil and informative it might just happen.