I firmly believe that if the majority of people in the country were exposed to the same evidence as the citizens assembly were- evidence from experts, and religious groups, and people who regretted their abortions and people who had to travel because of fatal foetal abnormalities, the whole confused lot- they would come to the same conclusion and it would be repealed.
In reality, they're unlikely to be exposed to 5% of that information. They will get emotive, angry messages from both sides. Currently there are crazy American speakers trying to hold a meeting talking about their experience of being conceived because of rape, or conceiving a child they carried to term and love due to rape, and how that means abortion should be illegal. Instead of issuing a statement to the effect that they respect their personal views but they do not speak for the majority, the repeal movement have tried to mobilise people to shut them down and they have now had to cancel two meetings in Dublin hotels because staff have been issued with death threats. Being on the side of silencing free speech is never a good way to influence people.
I understand why people are angry. I know a few of the v crazy far right religious Iona types and they are enraging. But the current message of a lot of the repeal side is basically, screw you, you hate women and we are going to win.
And this vote is not going to be won or lost by the people who hate women. It's the people who think that when life starts is a continuum, and there are competing claims, and who need to have more information and statistics and stories about the reality of the choices women like them (and most of them are women) or their friends and loved ones have to make. I'm really worried those people are currently being ignored, instead of targeted.
The marriage equality referendum made a lot of progress by speaking to people openly and acknowledging their concerns- the call a granny campaign was masterful. But repeal, while it has had some success with women talking about their experiences, seems to be reluctant to engage with the fact some of these women will have had doubts, and engage with the doubts and concerns of their audience. It is defiant in its tone- and I really honestly do understand why, but it is going to get people's backs up, and I fear it is going to let the crazies win.