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Original poster

Storm Ciarán

962 replies

OhYouBadBadKitten · 28/10/2023 08:59

This is an early heads up.

Models have consistently been bringing in a deep low pressure for sometime over Wed/Thurs. As is often the case, details are yet to be nailed down, but some of the models are producing some severe gusts - southern coastal winds of up to 90mph and more widespread inland winds of around 60mph. With storms, comes rain too unfortunately. A wobble in the track could take them further north or, keep it all in France. Exactly when and where the low pressure develops will make a big difference in the outcome. More details to follow.

If the storm is named, it will be Storm Ciaran. At that point I'll ask MNHQ to change the title appropriately.

OP posts:
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Original poster
OhYouBadBadKitten · 29/10/2023 04:58

To summarise, there's a lot of variation in the models. We are a few days out yet, but the possibilities range from pretty stormy indeed, to 'just', yet another rainmaker. As always we await the next set of model runs.

OP posts:
RoseAndRose · 29/10/2023 07:16

EarthSight · 28/10/2023 22:55

What kind of good is there is that?

Show quote history

Considerably less likely for branches to fall or for whole trees to come down.

When not in leaf, wind passes through the bare tree with lower chances of damage.

When in leaf, the presence of leaves both alters the turbulence round the tree making damage from partial/total fall more likely; and also even if the structure of the tree remains standing intact, high winds can strip leaves from trees still in leaf which damages them, including prematurely ending photosynthesis that year. Obviously that's not going to cause much lasting harm as a one-off to a mature tree, but if it starts happening frequently then it will cause cumulative damage and some species of tree really don't live well in areas with frequent hurricanes.

It's a bit of a double whammy, as the warmer summers lasting into Sept/Oct mean more tress in leaf for longer; and those warmer summers also mean higher sea temperatures which mean stronger storms

justasking111 · 29/10/2023 07:27

OhYouBadBadKitten · 29/10/2023 04:58

To summarise, there's a lot of variation in the models. We are a few days out yet, but the possibilities range from pretty stormy indeed, to 'just', yet another rainmaker. As always we await the next set of model runs.

Thanks @OhYouBadBadKitten that's a much improved model. Not that we need more rain 🙈

Duckduckloose · 29/10/2023 07:41

My daughter’s due to be on a cross channel ferry Thursday afternoon.
What do you reckon?

GloriaSmud · 29/10/2023 07:50

Looking at the GFS at the moment, it looks like N France, the Channel and later SE England get the worst of the wind but England/Wales gets the worst of the rain, (with Northumberland getting an awful lot of it yet again)

Current flood alerts.

Check for flooding in England - GOV.UK

View current flood warnings and alerts for England and the national flood forecast for the next 5 days. Also check river, sea, groundwater and rainfall levels.

https://check-for-flooding.service.gov.uk/?ext=-10.111823%2C50.288661%2C2.6244%2C54.738244&lyr=mv%2Cts%2Ctw%2Cta%2Cri%2Cgr&v=map-live

Flimpychunk · 29/10/2023 07:52

Meant to be holding a fireworks event on Wednesday - v nervous now!

NonMiDispiace · 29/10/2023 08:07

We’re on holiday near Aberystwyth, next to the beach. I think DH will need to move the car somewhere safer; pebbles we’re scattered across the road further along yesterday from a rough high tide 🫣

GloriaSmud · 29/10/2023 08:09

Duckduckloose ~ I think there'll probably be delays/canellations on Thursday. If there are any ferry crossings ~ midday/early afternoon looks very rough but late afternoon/early evening looks better.

Flimpychunk ~ Whereabouts are you? At the moment, it looks like it hits the SW between 6-9pm.

MyCircumference · 29/10/2023 08:12

i just wish they would clear the drains, people are out trying to clear drains themselves, so many flooded roads and fields here

WaitingForRainAgain · 29/10/2023 08:36

bit nervous about this. live on the south coast east of portsmouth and have a procedure at hosp on thursday am, that ought not to be missed, so driving along the coast about 8.30 am and back lunchtime, then a drive up to andover in the afternoon😬

CarrotsAndCheese · 29/10/2023 08:51

@OhYouBadBadKitten Thanks very much for your update this morning 😊 Are those sustained wind speeds, or gusts, shown in the models you've posted?

RedToothBrush · 29/10/2023 08:51

DyslexicPoster · 28/10/2023 23:23

50mph winds predicted in my county. Glad I'm not flying on Thursday!

That'll be lucky me.

WestwardHo1 · 29/10/2023 08:55

I just came here to see if you'd said anything about this one. I have never seen 102 knot gusts on the windy app before 😱. It looks like there'll be some damage. I guess it could lessen a bit between now and then

WestwardHo1 · 29/10/2023 09:04

Calmdown14 · 28/10/2023 22:20

We haven't stopped being battered since Babet and still in a weather warning til Monday. Closed bridges and knackered roads are making getting anywhere difficult.

But thankfully it didn't cooincide with the high tide of the week before (and still need to get through a flood warning tonight)

What are the tides for the south coast like on Thursday as that will play a key role.

It's springs at the moment (big ones) so will have dropped down more neapy by then.

I'm fretting a bit about this one. We're in SW Cornwall. DP's daughter is getting married on Saturday and the European contingent are due to be flying in to Bristol on Thursday. He's supposed to be going up to get them. I imagine there'll be stern "do not drive" instructions

MetaverseMavis · 29/10/2023 09:10

Watching with interest. Thank you op

Baconisdelicious · 29/10/2023 09:17

Thanks, OP. The BBC forecast is much improved this morning compared with what it was at 10pm last night but being coastal, I know that doesn't mean much. Very worrying. I shall.keep an eye on it.

daisychain01 · 29/10/2023 09:26

I have to go to Bristol on Thursday so I expect the old Severn Bridge will be shut both ways which is a pain. Extra 12 miles on my journey each way diverting to the Prince of Wales bridge.

CarrotsAndCheese · 29/10/2023 09:37

CarrotsAndCheese · 29/10/2023 08:51

@OhYouBadBadKitten Thanks very much for your update this morning 😊 Are those sustained wind speeds, or gusts, shown in the models you've posted?

Sorry, I think it already mentions they are gusts upthread.

Flimpychunk · 29/10/2023 09:48

@GloriaSmud In north Surrey, with the fireworks planned to go off at 6 Confused

EarthSight · 29/10/2023 10:05

OhYouBadBadKitten · 29/10/2023 04:53

GFS? Well this model run is a pussycat wind wise.

Is that last image for Thursday? If it is it's not too bad then. It's already 27mph gusts here in Gwynedd and it's not unusual weather.

GloriaSmud · 29/10/2023 10:38

@Flimpychunk I think you should be Ok- it looks like it starts getting blowy from about 9pm (hopefully your fireworks will have finished by then!) and winds go on increasing after that.

wellStupid · 29/10/2023 11:01

OhYouBadBadKitten · 28/10/2023 08:59

This is an early heads up.

Models have consistently been bringing in a deep low pressure for sometime over Wed/Thurs. As is often the case, details are yet to be nailed down, but some of the models are producing some severe gusts - southern coastal winds of up to 90mph and more widespread inland winds of around 60mph. With storms, comes rain too unfortunately. A wobble in the track could take them further north or, keep it all in France. Exactly when and where the low pressure develops will make a big difference in the outcome. More details to follow.

If the storm is named, it will be Storm Ciaran. At that point I'll ask MNHQ to change the title appropriately.

Just to clarify that if this storm is named, it will be storm Ciarán, not Ciaran!

My nephew is called Ciarán so it'll probably be most active between the hours of midnight and 6am.
All other times the storm will be sleeping, eating or playing on its Xbox.

whatisdrowsybutawake · 29/10/2023 11:05

Placemarking. Meant to be going on a cruise from Southampton on Friday morning.. flying down from Scotland on Thursday.

ListenLinda · 29/10/2023 12:11

Just seen on Twitter that it has been named.

wellStupid · 29/10/2023 12:20

Ciarán = Keir (as in Labour leader) + awn (as in pawn)