Storm Ciarán

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

This is an early heads up.

Models have consistently been bringing in a deep low pressure for sometime over Wed/Thurs. As is often the case, details are yet to be nailed down, but some of the models are producing some severe gusts - southern coastal winds of up to 90mph and more widespread inland winds of around 60mph. With storms, comes rain too unfortunately. A wobble in the track could take them further north or, keep it all in France. Exactly when and where the low pressure develops will make a big difference in the outcome. More details to follow.

If the storm is named, it will be Storm Ciaran. At that point I'll ask MNHQ to change the title appropriately.

If it did shift south over France would it be weaker as it's going over land?

It's bin day weds 😖.

@OhYouBadBadKitten Thank you for your updates. At the moment, it is a yellow warning as high impact but still unlikely. How near to Thursday do they change this to likely or very likely?

I'm on coast in one of those areas looking to get 60mph winds average on Thursday! And with potential gusts of 90mph or so it could be a bit hairy.

As I have no clue of what that means in terms of severity in reality here, how do we think this might affect our lives if it happens?

For example, will it be safe to do the school run (we walk?). Just worried about flying debris or being thrown off our feet!?

Does anyone have a clue if that might be safe or am I being overly scared?

Got a yellow warning for Rain in my area, fallen on to already sodden ground and areas that have high risk of flooding.

look at this @jojonono The Beaufort Wind Scale | Royal Meteorological Society (rmets.org) or this Beaufort Scale (nationalgeographic.org)

Hope this helps.

I am also a weather watcher and love windy.com app.

thank you @timoteigirl - looks like the walk to school on Thurs could be very hairy! 😮hopefully if windspeeds reach those levels we might get away without having to go in, as it looks super dangerous.

My physiotherapist appointment this morning, she's lived all over, settled here after many visits as a child. She said that places she had lived hadn't had these kind of winds in the past. It's nothing new for us being coastal with predominantly westerlies .

It begs the question of planning homes, fencing, roof designs drainage foul and run off moving forward building wise.

We never get any decent storms here in North Yorkshire :(

My sons in North Yorkshire now he's quite relieved not to be losing his roof having a tree through the bathroom window, power cuts, which he grew up with in NW Wales 😊

That's the one I use. It's extraordinarily colourful on Thursday and again on Saturday (SD's wedding day 😱)

Ah heck. Ciaran seems to be wobbling northwards on some of the latest model runs. This would bring stronger winds into the south. I'd say it needs to wobble back south, but that takes the strongest winds into France. That doesn't seem kind to wish it on them either.

There isn't really any point in talking about predicted wind speeds yet. The Met office summary of the situation reflects what the current models are showing well.

I'm holding off starting a thread about the next potential named storm, this weekend perhaps, until we get more of a handle on this storm.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?id=964c22c0-7d52-4ba9-bde8-ccf26c58cba9&date=2023-11-01&details

I would say, if you are in the SW or in southern coastal areas, then I would consider your storm preparedness. Think about how you are going to secure trampolines for instance. Trampolines cause all sorts of issues in high winds - flying over fences, onto rail tracks and into neighbours houses etc.

If you are prone to power cuts - make sure that you have a power cut kit with torches and batteries. The number to ring if you get one unexpectedly and your neighbours aren't off - ring 105. If you are vulnerable, register with the priority services. https://www.nationalgrid.co.uk/customers-and-community/priority-services

Excellent power cut advice here: https://www.nationalgrid.co.uk/downloads-view-reciteme/627138

Checking in nervously from Normandy.....

Looks like we might be hit badly then. Both southern coast and like a PP I am trying to fly out of heathrow on Wednesday!

Ah rats what a rotten half term for the kids . 🔥 Display etc 🙈

Thankfully latest models seem to be sending it away from us (coastal Bristol) keeping fingers crossed as missed last one too

It's too early for Wednesday's aviation specific forecasts but ATM, looking at the general forecasts, there's nothing overly problematic in the Heathrow weather until you get into very early Thursday AM, it's then the crosswinds pick up.

Obviously there's the caveat that timings could change.

Going to be fun here in Jersey. 85mph gusts under a force 10.emergency planning meetings currently going on

got my txt from SSEN this afternoon warning of the storm and what to do im in their priority bracket so looks like something is happening,im Dorset 3 miles from the coast

From Jersey Met

just got my online shop booked for tomorrow now as not felt great today and have no intenrion of going anywhere wed/thursday just a bit worried about my son and school and older son is a roofer but cant see him working thursday,will be out in the garden tomorrow taking down the basketball post etc just to be safe

Waving nervously across at @HilaryThorpe from the Channel Islands…. 😬

I hope that people will keep fireworks to the weekend 4/5th, and not try letting them off in high winds

I am really nervous as well about this!!!

They are in a big emergency meeting here now