Storm Ciarán

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

This is an early heads up.

Models have consistently been bringing in a deep low pressure for sometime over Wed/Thurs. As is often the case, details are yet to be nailed down, but some of the models are producing some severe gusts - southern coastal winds of up to 90mph and more widespread inland winds of around 60mph. With storms, comes rain too unfortunately. A wobble in the track could take them further north or, keep it all in France. Exactly when and where the low pressure develops will make a big difference in the outcome. More details to follow.

If the storm is named, it will be Storm Ciaran. At that point I'll ask MNHQ to change the title appropriately.

I think they're less likely to be uprooted if they aren't leafy.

Threes are less likely to fall down when the leaves are gone.

@EarthSight - the more leaves there are on trees the more likely they are to be felled by high winds - so October storms in a mild autumn can create more havoc - as did the big one in 87

I think we're sinking, here on the Isle of Wight. The flooding is unheard of. The water has nowhere to go with the high tides and it has not stopped raining.

Placemark, I could really do without the disruption. Might need a canoe at this rate.

Bloody hell. Hoping East Anglia avoids the worst of it, that looks nasty. 🙀

50mph winds predicted in my county. Glad I'm not flying on Thursday!

Checking in to keep up with the updates.

@EarthSight or on your head ! During the last storm a big thick branch fell on my head and face, broke my nose and was knocked out for a while. I can't avoid it because I live pretty much in a woods.

Anyone else thinking of building an ark?

Unfortunately, 4 of the 6 deciduous trees in our garden are still full of mostly green leaves, as it's been so mild in the South-East.

Not personally but we've nine flood alerts out tonight.

Aww, those poor chicks! 😥

Some very lively weather this evening and overnight so I will have to pause posting on this thread until the end of tomorrow.

At least there are a few days of strong winds before to clear some of the leaves. Ground will be wet though, which will also increase the chance trees come down.

Depends. London transport is notoriously badly impacted by bad weather. Are you travelling back to Newcastle mid morning before the forecast gales or 5pm rush hour?

I'd probably keep a close eye if the latter if for some reason an extra night in London would cause massive issues.

My 2 youngest are going on a school rewards trip to Blackpool pleasure beach on Thursday, they’ll be gutted if it’s cancelled

Place marking too!

I'll keep an eye on this thread, thank you @OhYouBadBadKitten.

Meant to be travelling to Liverpool on Thursday. Might reschedule!

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By Thursday morning it is probable that the worst of the weather will have arrived. Are you going by train or car? If by train, you might find that rail companies take the matter out of your hands.

Argh, I typed a long post with charts and MN swallowed it while I was analysing a chart.

Will do this model, by model then. UKV at 6am thursday shows some extreme wind (mph) through the channel. The SW, southern coastal counties and SE see the worst. Remember a model run does not equal a forecast. It's one snapshot potential scenario.

Arperge in my mind looks more realistic. Enough to cause disruption, but not extreme.

GFS? Well this model run is a pussycat wind wise.