Spring Weather watch

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Optimistically we turn our eyes towards Spring weather in the hope that we are in the last throes of winter. But March is a capricious month. ...

It looks like we've a fairly unsettled couple of weeks coming up overall, with plenty of showers and rain. I'm afraid wintry showers are still likely over northern hills for a time yet.

Water storage will be grateful for the rain and at least there's a chance of spectacular cumulus cloudscapes on showery days (as opposed to these grey gloomy days which frankly can sod off)

Old thread www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4708880-winter-weather-outlook-part-2-into-january-23

oufff that looks a tad warm.

They're dithering about thunderstorms now

We have a forecast 25deg in Oxfordshire this pm. latest forecast from Met Office is about warmer air coming from Southern Europe pushing up and giving heavy rain & Thunderstorms tomorrow as far north as Manchester and west of Watling Street A5.
Map shows a straight line
Does anyone read it differently to me?

Not dithering. As more information comes into play about the current state of the atmosphere, forecasts shift and sharpen.

One influence is how much cloud is around tomorrow morning. As we've seen recently, cloud thickness can be hard to forecast accurately. That cloud and how long it lasts, will have a strong part to play. If it lingers, it will somewhat suppress storms from initiating, especially in the south I think.

High surface air temperatures will help to break what is known as a cap. A cap is warm air aloft, preventing air parcels from rising. ie. holding back convection. We will have some cap in place tomorrow. Clear skies help warm that surface air temperature. So it will be all eyes on the skies in the morning.

What do you mean about the map showing a straight line? Can you take a screen shot please to show me?

Can't paste pic into this box. Try this link
//www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2023/warning-issued-ahead-of-thunder-risk

I was in hospital for a few days 22 years ago next month, heavily pregnant. A weather system like this came in OH was up in the field walking back to the house he saw three lightning strikes one on the house and two in the field. He moved pretty fast to get indoors where he found our sky dish had fried the TV, computer and washing machine. Meanwhile at the hospital they had to run the generators because the power went down.

So my mother running around the house shouting to unplug everything wasn't an old wives tale.

In the early days of the Internet a thunderstorm knocked our modem. We had to get a new one.

Much of our street had computers, tvs and landline phones fried many years ago when lightning hit. We did not, because I had unplugged everything.

Cormorant I'm not quite sure which line you mean. Don't take the warning area too literally. There are a lot of factors that go into drawing those boundaries. Think of them as fuzzy boundaries.

It is quite likely that if storms develop they might form into trains of storms, so that one area is repeatedly hit.

A few months ago I was driving back home on a dual carriageway, could see black clouds ahead, drove into torrential rain, from 70 mph the cars slowed to around 20 mph. I thought about pulling off I was white knuckle scared. After this dry spell roads will be slippery in the rain vehicles Jack knife regularly on our main road into Wales A55 .

So keep your eyes peeled ahead. Too many don't

Sunny today - woohoo
26 degrees forecast for tomorrow - even more woohoo. Sick and tired of still wearing jumpers in June.

Hot and quite humid here today.

18 degrees and sunny in South Yorkshire today.

Weather station reading 24.6C here in West Gloucestershire.

Our weather station reading 26.8. I'm staying indoors with grandson for a bit longer.

There was a sweet spot of weather for me for a couple of weeks there. Now it’s too hot 😂

Long loud rumbles of thunder in Manchester. Torrential rain and tbe drain at the garage blocked so it flooded. Quite a bit of lightning but it's the thunder that's been impressive.

Trafford end of Manchester still has no rain but plenty of thunder.
The garden is dusty dry now.

Heavy rain in North Hampshire.
Part of me is already fretting about slugs....

FINALLY, have had glorious sunshine and, more importantly, no flipping wind - north east Essex coast. It’s been a long time coming, the low temperatures with the wind and cloud cover had been totally depressing.

DH has been at a cricket match in Flixton all afternoon. He said there have been plenty of rumbles of thunder but it stayed sunny. But back here with me, the other side of Manchester we that thunder, rain, lightning

It's predicted 31° tomorrow in Leeds - I couldn't cope with 26° today so I'm taking myself off to the seaside (where it's going to be about 23° tops) til Tuesday night.

I saw something on twitter that said our oceans have just reached a record high temp and no one really seems to know why (why now, because obviously climate change)

I think the hot oceans is El Niño starting, it happens periodically but looks like it will be a strong one this time and when all that warmth ends up in the atmosphere it'll make 2024 hot and stormy.

Not el nino apparently, I'll see if I can find the thread