Winter Weather Outlook. Part 2: Into January '23

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Old thread : www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4626193-winter-weather-outlook

www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-12-31

Not quite January yet, but the weather warnings continue. Generally a mild outlook to come, though of course parts of Scotland will see more wintry weather on and off.

any idea about fog on wednesday first thing? i am due to travel early and have yet to decide what train station to go from!

Where are you based coffeecreme?

south east

i have just scrolled in to the map that was linked and looks like the fog will miss me! <<i hope>

Might just be a tabloid scare story but one was writing about a polar vortex event happening in February with v cold weather predicted, they're calling it the Nightmare From The North.

That's definitely a tabloid scare story Pennina. The currently very strong polar vortex does look like it may well weaken significantly next month. That may lead to SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) but the chance of that is currently low. Even if that were to occur it doesn't always bring colder weather to the UK.

It's something to keep an eye on, but nothing to currently get worried about or excited by.

CoffeCreme at the moment it's too early to really say. It's not something I'd be unduly concerned about at present.

thanks very much @OhYouBadBadKitten

I realise weather tech changes all the time
I remember posting on here years ago about how I thought it was a lot warmer than reports said

this week, I think it's been a lot colder than reports said. I have only seen the thermostat in the flat go this low when it's been about minus 5, but it's showing this low when it's allegedly 2 outside.

is anyone else thinking this?

Yes, Emerald, I am. I have a weather station and it's been reporting up to 5C colder. It's also very noticeable indoors that the cold is seeping through the walls.

Madame thank you. That's interesting.

it's easily one of the coldest winters I've had in this flat, and the ground frost says the same, but the weather forecast doesn't.

I stopped watching the BBC weather yonks ago, but I recall, in the last period of it being effing freezing, they called it "a bit chilly"!

Colder in the South of England than in North East of Scotland. Near my mums right now: 5.9 degrees C. Where I am in Surrey -2 degrees C.

Is that due to lack of clouds in the South?

Crikey, it's bitter out there!

I've put more than double bird food out again today and they'd wolfed it down!

I might have a bit of a thing going on with a male blackbird - we talk to each other and he doesn't fly away 💕

Seeing lots of gossip about a SSW @OhYouBadBadKitten still too early?

I also have a Blackbird friend. It started when I realised that he quietly followed me (just inches behind) as I weeded. He was obviously looking for me turning up potential grubs and worms.

I call him Shadow (as in me and my) He now has his own 'swing' It's meant to be a hanging wooden bird table hung from tree, but he just uses it as a swing.
He is so sweet.

Also, yes it is bloody bitter. As others are said, feels colder than it says. My bungalow has concrete floors and it hasn't been properly warm in here for weeks. Doesn't matter how much the heating is on.

beenrumbled I think the chance of a full SSW is there, but it's a relatively low one at present.

There is a warmer air mass in the north. But here's a lovely satellite view too where the cloud shows up the location of that air.

6.5c in North Wales checking the weather station

Loving the blackbird friendships .Prompted me to strir myself and put some water and food out .

Had to google SSW as I only dip into this thread .For others who might be similarly ignorant .
First discovered in 1952, a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) refers to a swift jump in temperatures in the stratosphere that is sometimes linked to the onset of cold weather in winter in certain regions.

www.skybrary.aero/articles/sudden-stratospheric-warming-ssw#:~:text=Description,in%20winter%20in%20certain%20regions.

Hope it's an accurate account.

Very brrrrrrh here! (Chilterns)

Quick place mark because I don’t think this is on TIO.

Looking even less likely that we will have an SSW now.

That's good though, isn't it? We don't want it that cold.⛄
I did have to break out the hairdryer and extension lead at the weekend - DH couldn't get into his car (so he nicked mine), the door seal and lock had frozen solid and it was only about -3ish.

Any long term predictions for snow? Feb / March can still be rather cold, wet months, and snow is possible. I'm in Surrey and we had snow in March 2018.

So grim here today. 1 degree, gloomy and fog/very low cloud/scotch mist. Cold snd very damp is my least favourite.

No snow showing at the moment for most I'm afraid.

Today's gloom really was very gloomy wasn't it! It feels colder than when it was actually cold. Roll on longer warmer days.