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Weather

Winter Weather Outlook. Part 2: Into January '23

730 replies

OhYouBadBadKitten · 30/12/2022 21:16

Old thread : www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4626193-winter-weather-outlook

www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-12-31

Not quite January yet, but the weather warnings continue. Generally a mild outlook to come, though of course parts of Scotland will see more wintry weather on and off.

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71
zen1 · 16/02/2023 14:42

@OhYouBadBadKitten cheekily asking for some advice: I am currently in Rotherham and due to drive back down South tomorrow midday-ish. DH is getting a bit worried about the winds and wonders if we should leave tonight. I’m not even sure whether the storm will impact here as we’re south of the Pennines. Just wondered if you had any thoughts? Much appreciated!

pussycatinfluffyslippers · 16/02/2023 15:16

@RainbowZebraWarrior very sensible. Don't forget to tip empty/light wheelie bins on their side...they look funny as the trundle down the road Grin but it's not funny going out in the dark and wind (in PJs) trying to catch every stray can/packet. 🤦‍♀️

ListenLinda · 16/02/2023 18:14

Just had the same text message from Northern Powergrid. Last time I checked it was a yellow weather warning but it’s now an Amber? The app hasn’t updated for me, I have to go into the office tomorrow so this is not welcome news!

pussycatinfluffyslippers · 16/02/2023 18:37

Just as an aside...I went to the supermarket with wet hair and in just a t shirt and jeans earlier. That rattling noise is my mother Hmm berating me for not wearing a vest and a coat and apparently I need a haircut 🤦‍♀️
In short - it's remarkably mild out there.

Very best wishes for Northerners with "Otto".
May all of your roof tiles and fence panels remain in place. 🤞

OhYouBadBadKitten · 16/02/2023 22:56

Sorry, been really busy. It's still a yellow warning. Zen, you should be ok. Strongest winds will probably be in places like the lee of the Pennines.

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ListenLinda · 17/02/2023 06:26

It sounds very loud out there this morning!

Perihelion · 17/02/2023 07:21

A wee bit breezy in Edinburgh 🤣
Been awake since about 4:30 due to the wind. Not really had a lot of strong winds this winter.

RainbowZebraWarrior · 17/02/2023 07:49

I've also been awake since 4.30am. Wind is crazy here on the Whitley Bay coast. Leaving in 20 mins for school run. Not looking forward to it at all as we are quite exposed. Just had a message from school. Was hoping they might be shut or something, but it was just to confirm today is a non uniform day.

Off to weigh myself down...

ListenLinda · 17/02/2023 10:57

Carnage on the rail network today. I gave up and came home!

OhYouBadBadKitten · 17/02/2023 19:05

How are all the Otto people doing this evening? www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-64662300

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RafaistheKingofClay · 18/02/2023 09:40

Still 16 degrees in the kitchen when I got up to go to work this am. Might manage to get a few very light heating days before the cold snap sets in.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 18/02/2023 10:21

The. cold snap might not be just a snap Confused
Its typical isn't it, just as we look towards Spring, winter threatens once more.

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RafaistheKingofClay · 18/02/2023 10:36

I was being optimistic. Largely because we’re at the end of the annual leave year and if it snows properly I’m not going to get paid.

pussycatinfluffyslippers · 18/02/2023 13:07

@OhYouBadBadKitten you can't leave us dangling like that! Grin
I know by Thursday it will be colder than today - I went shopping in jeans and t shirt today, no coat, and was it was "mild" - and am now in denim bermuda shorts and he's put the heating on 🥵🤦‍♀️🥵
How cold and how widespread do you think it might get? please🤞🙏🏻please

CafeCremeMerci · 18/02/2023 13:20

OhYouBadBadKitten · 01/02/2023 12:20

I'm enjoying the drying weather too.

You might be seeing various headlines and social media speculation about an upcoming cold spell. GFS has come up with a very cold easterly run. But... It's an outlier. At the moment the balance of probability is for it to remain average/mild.

@OhYouBadBadKitten

Hello 😊

Have you any updated thoughts on this? I keep being bombarded, by well meaning friends, with articles about it arriving in the first week of March.

Nothing pressing, just deciding whether to
get some new bits I'll need if we do get snow. Just cold/wet/icy and I've got enough. Might get the winter tyres on the car if it's going to snow. I'll need to buy a new set as my others don't fit this car -obviously 🙄🙄

OhYouBadBadKitten · 18/02/2023 17:03

Grin sorry that was a bit mean! I think that there's a chance from the middle of next week of some hill snow and wintry showers pretty much anywhere. There's no sign of any prolonged or disruptive snowfall and upper air temperatures look too warm for that.

I've attached the upper air temperatures for Oxfordshire. They are especially important at this time of year because they are pretty independent of diurnal variation, that is, the contrast between day and night temp temperatures. As you can see, they drop down significantly, but then there's not really any clear sign that things will warm up afterwards and indeed there are hints of it turning colder again. Models are very split.

As we get into March, solar heating makes a big difference to how warm air close to the surface is, especially as days are much longer. However, wintry showers at this time of year can be really photogenic, with the sun helping create big billowy cumulonimbus clouds, through instability.

i wouldn't be looking at winter tyres, but I certainly wouldn't be putting out tender plants or planting seeds too early!

Winter Weather Outlook. Part 2: Into January '23
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Notonthestairs · 18/02/2023 17:16

That's really helpful - thank you OYBBK.
We have a family funeral at the beginning of March and family coming from all corners of England and I was beginning to worry.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 18/02/2023 17:40

I'm sorry to hear that *Notonethestairs', if you need a forecast closer to the time give me a prod.

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Tricyrtis2022 · 18/02/2023 18:05

@OhYouBadBadKitten thank you for that. I'm in Oxfordshire and work as a gardener so this is really interesting as I have gardens to prepare for parties and the work for them starts in winter.

May I ask what you see in the way of precipitation?

Notonthestairs · 18/02/2023 18:05

Thank you.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 18/02/2023 22:53

Not anywhere enough to make up for the deficit @Tricyrtis2022 Overall a pretty dry outlook.

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justasking111 · 18/02/2023 23:48

Still no rain here in Wales normally soggy in February. It's worrying looking ahead. Another water butt needed I think.

justasking111 · 18/02/2023 23:56

Son lived in Bermuda for six years working for an architect, roof design caught the water underground tanks stored it. We really need to apply ourselves in Europe.

We had a septic tank for twenty years so were careful with water. You really didn't want that to overflow into the garden and road. Our water rates were lower as a result

Tricyrtis2022 · 19/02/2023 09:01

OhYouBadBadKitten · 18/02/2023 22:53

Not anywhere enough to make up for the deficit @Tricyrtis2022 Overall a pretty dry outlook.

Thanks, but meh, I was hoping that wasn't the case. Time to get the watering cans out again.

DuchessDandelion · 19/02/2023 11:58

@OhYouBadBadKitten what are thoughts on todays temperature being about 13° in the south? Its still only Feb! It's quite worrying

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