Winter Weather Outlook. Part 2: Into January '23

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Old thread : www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4626193-winter-weather-outlook

www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-12-31

Not quite January yet, but the weather warnings continue. Generally a mild outlook to come, though of course parts of Scotland will see more wintry weather on and off.

stratospheric warming www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/wind/sudden-stratospheric-warming

So, a possible spell of colder weather?

man, it's been a long winter.

Yes, possibly colder weather.
Im done with winter!

Meglet for the first half at least, which looks quite pleasant and warmer than now. The possibility of it becoming a bit unsettled in the second half.

Two blog entries on the expected SSW from Netweather and TheWeatherOutlook.

Nice articles Gloria.

I like how detailed and well-balanced they are, OYBBK. Best not tell the newspapers/media that a SSW doesn't necessarily mean 'Beast from the East' type weather though!

Looking at UK maps there's no precipitation, rain, snow, we've had the occasional dampening. But January, February so far it's a winter drought in N Wales

@justasking111 and just over the border in Cheshire too.

Our River's and waterfalls should be roaring now with run off from the mountains. But they're just ambling along. Levels lower than normal.

Its the same for many other places, especially in the SW. Reservoirs are not where they should be for this time of year.

OH was down in the Powys area visiting farms, the river there wasn't at the usual levels for the time of year. It's concerning because Wales feeds water to huge areas in England. We may see early hose pipe bans this year.

You're not wrong. The Dee and Vyrnwy are the ones that feed the north west.
www.unitedutilities.com/help-and-support/your-water-supply/your-reservoirs/reservoir-levels/

There was the merest sprinkle of damp this morning in Dun Laoghaire, but it's a very low lying cloud covering all of Howth Head but not so dense that the Bailey Lighthouse light at the end of Howth is still clearly visible (every 12s). It's also a very dark cloud that is slowly moving across the Irish Sea (bottom of Howth was just getting visible as train moved inland).

But very still air too. And only cool, nowhere near cold so I'm guessing 7-10 degrees or so.

By damp, I mean mostly dry but clothes left out overnight had not dried and there was about 3 minutes of VERY light drizzle as I was leaving the house - had stopped long before I parked my car (10 minute drive).

Some weather!

A period of strong winds is expected the NE on Friday morning for a period of time.

www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings in

What happened with the SSW @OhYouBadBadKitten ? Anything?

It's underway, but there's no real signal for how it will affect us, if at all.

Appeared over Anglesey this morning, reached us at around 11am. Had a sprinkling. Sunny again. The Irish weather often gives us the nod in N Wales

GFS ensembles show a pretty good chance of a short lived cold spell next week now. It doesn't look remarkable, but it's going to feel pretty nippy after this mild spell.

I can screen shot as work have blocked MN again, but I was looking on Met Eireann at the 10 Day Atlantic Charts (under forecast button on main site), and there's an interesting looking low pressure system coming from USWest coast at the end of current 10 days, so I expect reaching Ireland maybe Tuesday 28th or so, looks bad enough just on the pressure chart but on the air mass chart it mixes warm air from south on one side of the eye with extremely cold air from north on the other and very tightly packed isobars.

I know, very far out yet to forecast with any accuracy...

Can't screenshot, sorry

I'll keep an eye out Biddy and see what develops, thanks for the heads up.

Tomorrow could see some severe gusts embedded within the storm across the north east. Keep an eye on met office warnings, especially if you have plans to be out and about in the area.

Sorry, my brain is mush today. It was a system coming up the US East coast and just starting to swing into the Atlantic. (I had west coast in my head for an entirely different tech reason )

I didn't even notice!

It doesn't seem to be being picked up as something that will influence our weather. After a short unsettled spell, the signal is for more dry and quiet.

We have just had a warning for Storm Otto on our local weather forecast (North East England) 70 to 80 mph gusts expected in the early hour of tomorrow morning.

I've also just had an email from Northen Powegrid entitled 'Preparing for Very Strong Winds'

I've been out into the back garden and moved anything liable to fly about. I've also grabbed enough logs so if we need to batten down the hatches, I'm fuelled up for a couple of nights.