The Annual Mumsnet Christmas Weather Thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Its that time of year again, when amateur meteorologists, weather enthusiasts, the generally interested and those that hate the concept of weather forecasting all gather to guess, ahem, forecast the weather for the Christmas week.

Now given that at the moment we don't know what the weather will be like in two weeks time, this is clearly rather a tall order at present! But we can give it a go.

At the moment looking at the GEFS 35 day ensembles, which is the only weather model I can view out to that time period, it looks chilly, but not snowy, nor wet, just generally settled conditions.

There were a few flakes of snow in New Mills tonight when I was waiting for a train.

In brief this morning, it looks too mild for snow on Christmas day, apart from in northern Scotland. GFS shows chilly temps away from the SW, but above freezing and possibly damp.

A more comprehensive forecast this evening

I always enjoy your weather threads OYBBK. We have had a bit of snow in north midlands this morning!

I was just looking at the GFS for Christmas Day - damp and chilly for us (Leicester) Still it's early days - still time for it to change......

Ho Ho Ho! GFS has decided to spring a festive treat on many and brings the cold back in on Christmas Eve, with the prospect of snow for some people!

Note that it lies towards the cold end of the GEFS solutions though. Don't buy emergency christmas sledges yet.

Thanks Eric!

Thanks OYBK

I've been searching for your thread and here you are!
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I'm in the Midlands and it's very cold but no snow yet. DS hasn't used his sledge since the Beast fron the East so is praying for snow Me not so much!

It's snowing here! Perfect as we are decorating the Christmas tree and putting up the other decorations today 🎄

Lovely LegoLover!

Boosey www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4626193-winter-weather-outlook for the general discussion.

we can start to get a little more specific now. Woo hoo! It's still very much a model guess at the moment though, so please don't worry about what the models show yet.

:Christmas Eve - GFS shows a potentially snowy Christmas eve in the south and parts of northern England in the morning, transferring to a general snow risk for many and cold enough to settle .

However, GFS is on the cold side of the ensembles and this really isn't reflected in the GEFS ensembles, which as a whole show it too warm for snow. So I think GFS must still be on a bender.

ECM ensembles, generally show a milder scenario, but there are a handful of members which do support cold.

Christmas Day looks cold and generally dry according to GFS, but see the caveat above!

Remember it's all Just for Fun at present!

Proper snow here in W Yorks!

Nice one Plait!

Blow some across to HD8 Plait we have nowt so far

It's stopped here now hoochy so fingers crossed it's moving your way!

Snowing and very slippery here in the Midlands. DH & DS out exploring whilst i'm huddled up inside!

It's snowed for us in S.Yorks all crunchy and bitter. I've got shopping delivery later, so much more civilised than battling the roads and people later (it won't come, you watch)

I'll do a christmas update this evening. I ran out of time this morning before we had to go out. Mostly because we couldnt get in the car. It had frozen solid.

We have a very rare dusting of snow in South Dorset! It won't last but everyone's overexcited - we had thundersnow earlier too .

It snowed in my bit of the Pennines yesterday.

By the way @OhYouBadBadKitten there is someone with a very similar username.

I want thundersnow!
Tesco delivered but the poor driver was like bambi trying to wrangle the crates. Neighbours have skidded into wall across the road so I'm resolutely staying in.

Anyone having snow today? We are in south east .

It’s snowing very lightly here at the moment. Surrey/Sussex/Hampshire borders.

A relative just phoned and reported thick snow where she is in the south west. It's slowly melting from yesterday where I am.

Updated thoughts from Netweather on the chances of a White Christmas. Their Santa Shaker has increased my chances of snow for the Midlands from 25% to 30%!

Although GFS shows air that is far too mild for snow over Christmas, a reasonable number of ECM and GEFS members do show cold air returning over the Christmas period. I'd put the probability of this being low, but certainly not insignificant. So don't plan to pack your sledges away after this week, just in case.

Beautiful light dusting this morning - my horses loved it!

In another switch, the latest GFS shows things chilling down to temperatures around 0°c on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day and once again bring in the idea of some festive sprinkles. But once again, it lies on the colder side of the ensembles. ECMWF ensembles show a wide spread of solutions from temperatures 10c+ to below 0°c

I see that the Santa shaker www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/xmas still shows similar probabilities.

So I think the balance of model runs at the moment show a fairly mild Christmas, but a not insignificant chance of a cold one. Keep model watching!