The Annual Mumsnet Christmas Weather Thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Its that time of year again, when amateur meteorologists, weather enthusiasts, the generally interested and those that hate the concept of weather forecasting all gather to guess, ahem, forecast the weather for the Christmas week.

Now given that at the moment we don't know what the weather will be like in two weeks time, this is clearly rather a tall order at present! But we can give it a go.

At the moment looking at the GEFS 35 day ensembles, which is the only weather model I can view out to that time period, it looks chilly, but not snowy, nor wet, just generally settled conditions.

The 12z has a rain to snow transition on Boxing day as rain moves northwards and bumps into cold air over northern England/Scotland.

So near, and yet so far Gloria
Thanks for all the updates though, Kitten.

I know, hoochyhag.
As OYBBK mentioned last night, Boxing Day is still looking good though <watches as that disappears from the models too>

I'm just seeing some weather forecasters on my FB saying about snow for Boxing Day. I'm in Bucks on the Chilterns, so how likely is it? It's my birthday and we normally go out but need to replan if snow is coming.

Looking at UKV (the Met Office Short range model) which now extends to the end of Christmas Day, the best (and perhaps only) place for snow on Christmas Day itself is lucky places in Scotland that may see a snow shower or two.

The models really have pushed this all close to the wire this year haven't they!

Christmas Eve central northern Scotland may see some some rain, sleet or snow showers, depending on how heavy the precipitation is and the elevation of location. Some showers in northern England and perhaps in isolated areas in the south of England too.

Christmas Day Perhaps the odd snow shower in Scotland, but otherwise a very benign sort of day. Cool in the north, but not desperately mild elsewhere either.

Boxing Day It really depends on which model you look at I'm afraid. There is potential for snow showers into northern England and Scotland. There is a very low chance of snow on the south. Watch this space in case that develops.

Into the following week, an unsettled cool spell, with sunshine and showers, depending on where you are, these may be snow.

Just a note, that like everyone else, it's a busy time for me too, so apologies for not being able to give frequent updates or too many personalized forcasts.

Happy birthday for Monday tapdancingmum!

Thank you 😀. I appreciate your threads and always come to look to see if you agree with the local chaps on FB. I must say all 3 of you are more than likely to be right over and above what the BBC says so I take note of it.

Thank you for your updates even during the busy time @OhYouBadBadKitten

I think we can say that whatever the British winter weather coming our way it won't compare to winter storm warned for the USA!

The winter storm in the US is jaw dropping in its intensity!

Christmas Eve Which is really quite soon.

Generally in the south a pretty dry and harmless day. Fairly mild. Further north rain showers or more prolonged rain. Over higher ground in Scotland, a more festive feel with yet more snow for some.

Christmas Day

Mostly an ok day in southern and central areas. Fairly mild, perhaps some showers. Not so pleasant further north with wind and rain, but probably the only snow will be confined to parts of northern Scotland, thus meaning that once again there will be an official white Christmas declared somewhere in the UK.

Boxing Day

A cooler day just about everywhere, with snow perhaps continuing in the NW of Scotland. Maybe some snow showers over northern hilly areas of England too. Hopefully some good sunshine for those in the south at times. Wrap up for those Boxing Day walks though!

Milder air then pushes back in on the 27th to give a generally unsettled remainder of the week, particularly so in more north western areas.

It is bitterly cold here on the NE coast of England. Due to drop to 1 degree later tonight. We have 50/50 clear sky and white cloud. If I didn't know better, I'd say we could have some snow.

I just hope it doesn't track over here once it's finished with the US/Canada. 🤔🤞

Yes I wondered whether the storm in America might influence our weather.

It won't track over us. The US extreme cold is caused by a great big kink in a weakened jet stream, bringing polar air across much of the states.

It's the Eve of Christmas Eve and I have a quieter day, so I'm not out of bed yet and the forecasting will be hampered by a cat on my lap and an ipad rather than a laptop.

Tomorrow In Scotland some snow on higher ground, but otherwise showery or rainy. Drier further south, though with some rain feeding into parts of Wales later in the day.

Christmas Day Unsettled, with frequent rain showers later in the day in parts of Scotland Scotland that may produce some hill snow in the NW. Showers elsewhere, perhaps with a band of more persistent rain in southern coastal counties for a time.

Boxing Day Colder with showers becoming more wintry in Scotland and NE England. A fine day for many in the south, perfect for muddy boxing day walks.

An unsettled rest of the week with heavy persistent rain at times.

Looking ahead to NYE on GFS, at the moment it's a tale of two halves with southern England looking very mild, chilly in northern england and scotland. Rain in the day in England is currently modelled to move out by night. Some hill snow possible in northern England and NW Scotland.

Thank you!
I can't get my head around those temperatures!

I keep pondering what it must be like. During our extreme heat I could feel the heat radiating off the walls in the house. Unless homes have extremely good insulation I can't imagine how hard it would be to keep them warm in those temperatures and the strain on their energy grids must be enormous.

Its going to very quickly revert back there though!

Good morning all!

A wet start in parts of northern Scotland and Northern Ireland today. Later on this evening. Later on an occluded weather front will traverse across, first southern Scotland, then later northern England and Wales, weakening the further south you are. This may bring a little hill snow to northern areas such as the Pennines over night.

Tomorrow a generally showery day for many. Cold air creeps into northern Scotland in the evening and slowly sinks across the UK through the night into Boxing Day. Will there be an official white Christmas tomorrow? Uncertain. Remember just one flake of snow has to be officially observed falling in the UK for it to be declared one. Perhaps one will be declared in northern Scotland

Boxing Day may see snow showers in parts of Scotland and perhaps later on the Pennines. Rain clearing from the south first thing. For many it will be a bright sunny day. (great for getting the family outside for a spot of fresh air)

Good morning OYBK and happy Christmas Eve. Thank you for your updates. It's mild with some weak winter sunshine here in the Midlands. Have a lovely Christmas x

Thank you so much @OhYouBadBadKitten
Have a lovely Christmas

The Beeb are forecasting up to 10 degrees for my bit of W Yorks tomorrow - suits me fine, I have had enough of the cold!

Merry Christmas OYBBK!

Merry Christmas everyone!

May your Christmas be full of whichever weather you prefer. Which I realise could cause an awful lot of chaos.

Merry Christmas @OhYouBadBadKitten @GloriaSmud and all

Merry Christmas and thank you@OhYouBadBadKitten

Just popping on to wish everyone a Merry Christmas. 'Tis a green one (apart from maybe in a bit of Scotland!)