Winter Weather outlook

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

I'm posting so I can find this thread again.

I have nothing to say about the weather today, but have been to my running club this evening and am now rehydrating on red wine. This may prove to be a mistake!

I had no idea I honestly have felt like this is normally an invisible part of mn, and is about to become even more invisible. I know that this is my passion and not one that I can force other people to enjoy, but I hope that sometimes it is useful, especially when we have unusually severe or interesting weather.

I'm prehydrating with a glass of beer before tomorrows run AuntieS, that's an even worse idea

Another big fan @OhYouBadBadKitten - please continue posting in the knowledge that your posts are much appreciated!
I imagine MN are trying to avoid genuine Zombie threads being resuscitated and clogging up Active/Trending. But there must be a better way….

I third the seconders! Please keep posting. I love this thread and anything to do with weather!

This thread started back in September - I hadn't spotted it until it popped up in active today.

Now I've been around long enough to know that these threads exist

But @mnhq what if hadn't been? OYBBK does sterling work here, but is unlikely to answer every thread that pops up in AIBU ('for the traffic') - which I know because I once posted on one and got short shrift about how you (OYBBK) couldn't keep abreast of a multiplicity of threads so please post on the main one.

That stung at the time - everyone else seemed to get answers on all sorts of repetitive threads.

But the 'expert amateur' posters bring a lot to MN. Not just weather. Lets not erode this.

Those who don't want to see can hide threads. But if people auto-hide, how will they ever know what's there?

So pleased I've found this thread. Looking forward to a regular read of it.
Thanks OP.

I am sure there loads of lurkers on these threads.

Anyone who commutes, has a garden, walks a dog, plays a sport or is related to someone who plays a sport, is interested in environmental change, enjoys travel, hates travel etc etc I'm sure keep an eye on these threads.

My husband knows your username & expertise and has never been on MN (to my knowledge).

They are much appreciated.

Sorry Meditrina if it was me being sharp with you. When weather gets busy on top of real life it can be very hard to keep on top of threads, but I can be unnecessarily blunt sometimes.

I was just thinking about the long standing cancer thread. It's not one that shouts out in general health, but sometimes pops up in active and will be a literal lifeline to people when they spot it.

Welcome Paleviolet

"My husband knows your username & expertise and has never been on MN (to my knowledge)."

Erm, realised that sounds weird and/or creepy. Your name came up whilst I was planning ahead of the summer heatwave. He was mystified at my sudden knowledge

and also

It really does highlight though that mns new idea, which they've already implemented will have unintended consequences not only to this section, but to other areas and threads in mn too. Please do let them know this if you feel so inclined.

Hiding threads. They're rushing into things at the moment. Change for changes sake will lose them more folks perhaps

Agreed justasking.

Anyway, as I can't sleep, back to weather. GFS in the latest model run (18z) places high pressure over us in early December, so instead of cold and snowy, it's mild and generally settled, with stormy weather at our northern fringes. It seems that models are converging towards developing a blocking high pressure, but where that high develops is crucial to what happens to our weather and that is very much unknown still.

Another fan of these threads delurking and extending my gratitude.

Another here too. Thank you.

No gratitude needed, but thank you for delurking
I hope that mn can see the potential unintended consequence of their new changes.

Full turn around for GFS from the midnight run. Once again showing how volatile the situation is. It shows a gradual transition to quite chilly weather, with high pressure building to our east/NE and as a consequence the weather settling down, cooling off and eventually bringing in not very cold easterlies.

Im not saying that the last run is more likely than the previous run but there is more model consistency between this one and ECM.

Sorry, in the wine haze last night, I had missed the earlier posts about the changes and their potential impacts. We tend to look at the forecast ahead of time for lots of reasons, DH is a fan of Windy (as we used to have a sailor doing events in the house) and I find YR better than Met Eireann for longer term views thanks to both OYBBK and GloriaSmud advising in the snows of 2009/10.

Nowadays, if there is bad weather likely, DH tends to ask me a couple of days beforehand "what is that cat person saying on your mum's thing?". So the weather tab is one I tend to check relatively frequently (along with Christmas, Preppers, and camping) separate to active threads, but sometimes it's good to see it being active again to remind me to check the latest, especially if the weather has been generally quiet for a while.

As getting the heads up a few days early can make the difference in thinking about plans and making sure we are organised in the right way (whether that's extra suncream, filling or emptying the rain barrel, or making sure we don't wait until the weekend to restock the logs or fill the fridge/freezer gaps).

So thank you for all the advices and wisdom, and explanations over the years.

Another thread lover here. Found the hot weather info so useful. They all are actually. I know weather talk is sneered at but i can't get enough 😁

Another lurker here who also loves these threads!

And yet another! I always click on them when I see them but rarely remember to go looking so I hope they don't get lost. Thank you OYBBK.

Another delurker - your knowledge is quite incredible and at times of big weather, like the crazy storms some months ago, I was refreshing constantly

How can I best communicate to mn that there might be some unintended consequences of their decision re hiding long running threads from active? I think that is what you would have us do OBBYK if we felt moved to do so? I feel moved but not totally sure what to do to best effect.

Following!