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Weather

Winter Weather outlook

934 replies

OhYouBadBadKitten · 04/09/2022 11:37

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 21/11/2022 21:27

GFS is having a bit of fun! Take it with an enormous pinch of salt.

Winter Weather outlook
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Justmuddlingalong · 22/11/2022 16:36

East coast of Scotland here, and the gritters are out. 🥶

OhYouBadBadKitten · 22/11/2022 17:27

It feels quite nippy down in the south of England, at around 5c, but will warm up later tonight as the next weather front arrives.

The gentle downward trend of temperatures resumes early December, with increased risk of hill snow, not just in Scotland, but Wales, northern English hills and just possibly more southern hills too (Chilterns). Its certainly something to watch next week. Quite a few more days left of this week though!

Just a few more days before I start the annual Christmas weather thread. Xmas Grin

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MistletoeMouse · 22/11/2022 20:38

We had minus 2 degrees yesterday (Sunday night / Monday morning) here on the NE coast of England. A really hard frost. It was still -1 at 10am. Weirdly, friends of mine who were a couple of miles away nearer the coast were recording 4 degrees. Others slightly inland had the same as me. Possibly a rural thing (surrounded by fields / farmland) If anyone has heard of Gosforth Park, near Newcastle Upon Tyne, they had the same.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 22/11/2022 21:59

Because the sea is warmer than the land, it keeps areas closer to it warmer Smile

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 23/11/2022 13:39

To illustrate the forecasting challenge ahead. This screenshot shows the 2m temperature ECM forecast ensembles up to 7th December for London.

The model is run with 50 parallel runs. Each line represents one run, each with slightly different conditions. The point of an ensemble is that by running it with many slightly different conditions is that we can see how confident we can be about any one scenario that might happen.

With this graph, take for example 7th December at Midnight. One ensemble member shows a temperature of -2c, another shows 11c. Both of these are outliers. The main body of members lie between 0c and 8.5c, with no clear signal.

ECM is just one model. I'm also adding in the GEFS ensembles for comparison. These also show the mean of the ensembles and also the GFS Operational run. The operational run is the main model run, run at higher resolution. You can see that the operational run is on the cold side of the ensembles. That means that any GFS charts that you see will be running on the cold side of the forecast.
You can see that for the 7th, both sets of ensembles are in broad agreement. The reality is though, that this doesn't mean that they are forecasting the same things, the charts may look very different. I've not had time to look.

I'm working til quite late today, but I'll happily answer questions to clarify this, if anyone wants.

Winter Weather outlook
Winter Weather outlook
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hoochyhag · 23/11/2022 16:53

Thanks for this Kitten.
Hope work goes ok ☺️
But, did you say Christmas thread 🤶🎄🤶 !?!

OhYouBadBadKitten · 23/11/2022 18:58

Countdown to the Christmas thread. Xmas Grin...

In the meantime GFS has been at the sherry again. The latest model run has snow for very many on the 9th Dec.

Winter Weather outlook
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OhYouBadBadKitten · 23/11/2022 20:41

There are some very overexcited people on various forums and social media. This GFS run is a cold outlier, so the probability of it occurring is low. Things do continue to look more settled in the first week of December and perhaps cold at times.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 23/11/2022 21:04

Soon few, other than those on this thread already are likely to see it with MNs new policy to allow people to hide threads in active that are more than 30 days old and it will never appear in trending.

www.mumsnet.com/talk/site_stuff/4678030-what-is-this-you-might-also-like-clutter

If this policy is implemented, I may decide to stop creating these threads. There's little point if people won't see them.

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ListenLinda · 23/11/2022 21:35

Please don’t stop, I love these threads and all your threads on our weird and wonderful weather through the year!

ShadowNight · 23/11/2022 21:36

I love your posts too, keep posting 😁

OhYouBadBadKitten · 23/11/2022 21:40

I don't mean to be a diva, or throw my toys out of the pram Sad I just don't want mn to effectively hide the long running threads from people.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 23/11/2022 21:41

That's very kind of you both though. Thank you.

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Furries · 23/11/2022 21:44

I second the above posts! I always seek out the weather threads. I might not post much, but I enjoy and appreciate them.

IncessantNameChanger · 23/11/2022 21:52

Bump for you x

BiddyPop · 23/11/2022 21:55

Oybbk - can I please ask for heat inGran Canaria week of 12th dec? Pretty please? I'm working but will have some down time and just need heat in my bones after 3 non-stop summers ...

OhYouBadBadKitten · 23/11/2022 21:56

I guess that's my point, unless people actively come on to the weather board, they may never see these threads that are more than 30 days old now.

I feel a bit embarrassed because I didn't mean to create a situation where people ask me not to flounce. I get that people read without saying anything, I do that with a lot of threads! Usually I'm interested but have nothing to add.

Im not driven by having my ego fed, but if it's a situation where it feels as though few can even see the thread, that's different, because it's a lot of work for nothing.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 23/11/2022 21:57

Yes of course Biddy, if we can get everyone who fancies a bit of snow then to parcel up their warmth, we can then get it sent to you. Grin

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 23/11/2022 21:58

Thank you Incessant Smile

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BiddyPop · 23/11/2022 21:59

Also, I remember our 4 teacher school right beside the sea regularly being open when the 8 teacher school 2 miles away was closed due to icy roads and icy yard... up the hill and inland.

The sea is slow to warm to match land/air temps in spring - but much slower to cool in autumn/winter and never hits the depths either. Nowadays, in icy weather, if I can slither down the hill I can usually get to work on train running alongside shore whereas bus stops at the very top of the hill if it makes it out of town (I'm halfway down) . The only problem is slithering you again to get back home (in icy/snowy weather)....

BiddyPop · 23/11/2022 21:59

Slithering up again... sorry wine taken despite only being Wednesday...

veeringsouth · 23/11/2022 22:02

I love your posts OP

OhYouBadBadKitten · 23/11/2022 22:04

It always seems to be easier getting into work/school than it is getting home again in terrible weather! Sod's law!

You've made me re-remember that the driver shortage may well have an impact on gritting this winter. We never really got to test that last winter as mostly it was mild and certainly not an icy winter for many.

Wine sounds good!

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BobBobBobbing · 23/11/2022 22:05

Lurker here who actively seeks out the weather section to see what you are saying OYBBK! That and preppers are my regular checks to see what's new.

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