Winter Weather outlook

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

GFS can stop getting excited about early snow <<gavel>>. We have to go to London on the 10th and I don't want any weather drama.

Thank you Thethingswedoforlove.

I think in the first instance it would be best to go onto the thread where we were told this was happening. www.mumsnet.com/talk/site_stuff/4678030-what-is-this-you-might-also-like-clutter and post on there to add weight to those of us who are trying to flag the issue.

Thank you to everyone who has posted in support, it means a lot!

If you don't opt out of seeing threads more than 30 days old, then you will continue to see them on Active. Of course though the more people that have opted out of seeing them, then the less likely they will be to appear on
Active in the first place.

MNHQs new algorithm means that they will never appear in trending.

As the medium term models wobble around, the met office have a good blog about the general trends this winter is likely to see.
blog.metoffice.gov.uk/

I love the weather threads

<settles in for winter>

I think this is going to be my most checked in on thread from now on, going to be regularly commuting between east and west coasts of the UK and am becoming obsessed with the weather across the Pennines. If I could order a 'no snow' for the 9th that would be very useful please.

I had mainly come on today though to see how many people that bonkers front had affected, here in west Wales we had very strong winds, thunder and lightening and about a cm of rain in an hour. On the weather radar it looked like the worst of it was crossing the whole of Wales from west to east. Did you see we had a 'mini tornado' yesterday OYBBK

Will go and post on the MN thread.

I’m also always here but rarely comment. Dh often asks what oybbk has to say about the upcoming weather!

Oooh, I'm late to the winter weather thread. Did someone mention snow? Off to read from the beginning <Are we allowed to get excited about it this year?>

OYBBK you are the least flouncy person I know. We really do appreciate your hard work, keep 'em coming

I did see that report lostinwales
That weather front is sliding across the country and likely to remain very lively in parts where squall lines have formed.

Another weather obsessive here and subscribed to this thread a while back. I work outside and what the weather is doing is very important to how my work goes. You're very much appreciated, OYBBK!

Thanks all

Autumn storms thread is here:www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4647365-autumn-storm-warnings It's tricky when seasons merge and I've no idea where to post!

Another one delurking to thank you OYBBK

(Even though I don't live in the UK any more , and we've just had our first snow of the winter 😁)

Following

Just here adding to your supporters oybbk. Been here many years and many name changes. Love all your weather threads. 🙏🍁🍃 ☔️ 💨

Enjoy it Beedles!

Bit of a rush, but ECM brings out a blocking high pressure to our east for around next Saturday, which if it verified would bring some pretty chilly weather. Other models seem to be showing a similar pattern.

Back later!

just read a report that suggests it will be quite an average wet winter, not sure how reliable it is though

Just added my voice to that thread in support of your points OYBBK. I now actively navigate to weather to find your threads now, but would never have found them in the first place as I use active/trending.

A worryingly large amount of business continuity planning for my organisation is on the back of mumsnet threads. OYBBK and bellini from preppers have saved the day frequently through their sensible planning and early warnings.

Thank you Bob.

Where was the report Linda? It is quite possible that we could end up with a very average winter. Average overall can disguise cold/snowy periods when balanced with milder periods.

It is still looking more likely than not that some sort of blocking will set up in a week or so. But I don't think there's much cold air to tap into yet and exactly where the blocking high sets up will make a big difference to our temperatures.

The 7th to 10th would be quite inconvenient for snow. I don’t want to end up getting trapped on the wrong place.

Anything this side of Christmas is less than ideal tbh so GFS needs to sober up.

I always love this thread! I find it amazing how accurate you are OYBK. It's like snow this year though please ...

Another lurker here, always appreciate your threads OYBBK and check in regularly. Always seem to miss the exciting weather thanks to the Manchester snow shield but find your threads very informative. Thank you.

I am so often inaccurate Snowdrops but I do admit when it has gone awry.

I wish I could say that all the models are coming into agreement about the next couple of weeks, but just when you think they are all converging on a broad scenario, they then diverge.

So our scenarios still look to be much more settled but either mild, cool or cold! I suspect cool will win out for the time being, with still the chance of some frosty nights.

I did report my post on here yesterday morning to MN to flag up my concerns about their change in algorithm, but I've had no response. On the other thread, they've said that they are sticking with their plan, but will monitor the impact on long running threads. I don't understand how they will be able to do that or what that means. So threads like this one and the long running support threads will never appear in trending and for some will never appear in active.

Another lurker here, who actively seeks out your threads OYBBK and will continue to do so. Your work is much appreciated.

Another lurker who taps into your very interesting/informative thread.