Winter Weather outlook

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

Morning all,

Im keeping a close eye on the far SW today to see how far an area of snow penetrates inland and across eastwards as an area of low pressure grazes the country tonight into tomorrow morning. There are still some model differences; no snow, far SW, more extensively across the SW, or less likely, across southern half of southern coastal counties. Watch for any Met Office warnings that are issued.

In the meantime northern scotland continues, with more snow today causing difficult conditions. The reality here is that this will be an ongoing theme for the rest of the week.

After tomorrow, the focus changes back to pop up snow showers running down the east coast again.

This weekend there's a big question mark as to the nature of the warm up. It's possible that there will be difficult weather over the northern half of England with a snowy transition. Please keep a close eye on forecasts for the weekend.

As to how long it will stay mild? GFS was a big outlier in the ensembles, returning cold before Christmas. Most ensemble members do not suggest this.

Oooh does this mean potential snow in West Cornwall? It’s def warmer this morning - no obvious frost unlike yesterday.

No change in N Wales bitterly cold and no wind.

Yellow Warning Met Office covering majority of the SW just popped up - snow & ice! Form 1800 today until 1000 tomorrow.

For once I have to say I really hope it stays mild for a while after this. I'm finding the temps and having to work outside some of the time utterly exhausting.

My asthma playing up in the cold

Bloody awful this
I thought I didn't need to go anywhere but I need to get my prescription

plus this looks to be going on for a while - days of icy roads potentially?

Yeah, me too. I was alright with wearing a scarf and warming up the air that way but -4c is too much. I've taken to going outside with a coffee, so I can take sips and breathe in the warm and that helps a bit.

www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-12-13

Some warnings out for this afternoon into tomorrow for the SW.

Near coastal areas in the SW, it might be rain or perhaps some freezing rain I'm afraid today into tomorrow.

Perhaps some snow showers feeding into northern England tomorrow.

Looks like the warm up on Sunday could be a wet one.

Thanks Kitten

I don't have much hope for the pavements, no idea what to do re mum's hospital appointment.

was on way out to get prescription, met neighbour who said it was too slippy and very kindly got it for me. She was here when I had my spinal injury so very mindful that I prefer not to go out in these conditions, bless her.

You're welcome Emma. It must be really hard for you, you must feel rather trapped.

Thanks, yes, I do.

I spoke to mum about her medical appointment, luckily she has realised it is potentially too risky depending on the state of the pavements, so we might have to rearrange.

i can't see what they can do for her anyway tbh. Strange and depressing days all round. Just really hope we only have this cold snap this winter but holly bushes full of berries suggest otherwise, sadly.

Been out but had to get a cab into town despite the fact the buses are running and the bus stop is up the road just a little way because the pavement is just too icy, when is this shit going to melt.

Is anyone pissed off by no salt or grit on pavements or paths?

Staying with DB for a couple of days so only got suede ankle boots with no grip. But the paths and pavements in Hackney are bloody lethal. I can’t even see grit or sand containers.

Any fellow Cheshire residents?
I found this live gritter tracking map.

@GonnaGetGoingReturns Yep Ive pointed out on Twitter that after all the protect the NHS rhetoric we have had over the last three years you would think they would grit the pavements to protect the slips and falls that will add to NHS pressures. Given some of the protect the NHS rhetoric was coming from these councils the response (if i get one) will be interesting.

That's brill and as per norm now gritters round our way. I've walked home on the road as it was safer!

I tweeted that to my council . Tumble weed

i also walk in the road in this weather.

I saw 2 ambulances go by whilst we were at the park.

I walk in the road too.

Councils will blame lack of funds for people not gritting.

Returning to where I live tomorrow night which has very steep hills so I guess I’ve got a chance to break a limb there…. They often don’t bother to salt hills leading down to the station. But I’ll be WFH rest of the week.

Hope you get home ok @GonnaGetGoingReturns Its ridiculous isnt it.

Snow falling now in Falmouth. It’s milder and very wet though so not settling. Yet.

@cheshirecatssmile It wouldnt surprise me if we arent the only ones to have pointed it out.

Snow falling on the Yorkshire coast.