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Weather

Winter Weather outlook

934 replies

OhYouBadBadKitten · 04/09/2022 11:37

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

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Mogloveseggs · 12/12/2022 07:52

OhYouBadBadKitten · 10/12/2022 23:22

That looks skiddy Mog

Sorry should have quoted not replied!

fancyacuppatea · 12/12/2022 08:01

Been awake for hours...it was really thick fog here (South Cheshire) but it's cleared a lot now.
I wouldn't have wanted to be on the M6 at 3am.
Grey and bloomin' freezing out there.

BouleBaker · 12/12/2022 08:12

Clear ice here in Southampton. Incredibly treacherous.

hoochyhag · 12/12/2022 08:25

Interesting about the launch of those new meteostat weather satellites tomorrow Kitten.

www.ft.com/content/d7fc7971-f2a7-403b-8978-3de19d5736f2

More data, more accuracy for storms. It's struck me how difficult things are to predict. Especially in view of those stuck in the south east and west.

I remember living in Kent and snow being very rare indeed.

hoochyhag · 12/12/2022 08:27

Mist and deep frost here where I am in West Yorkshire but no snow Sad

hoochyhag · 12/12/2022 08:46

Take care all those who are travelling. Stay safe.

FatAgainItsLettuceTime · 12/12/2022 08:56

It's trying to snow here in Leicester. Teeny tiny flakes and very on and off

BiddyPop · 12/12/2022 09:44

It was cool (around 0) early in Dun Laoghaire, but then the freezing fog descended and there was a noticeable drop in air temps (I was standing waiting for a phantom bus ). Am now thawing out with coffee and McMuffin breakfast in McD's as I make an alternative plan for getting to the airport. (Relatively well dressed for cool but not more than an hour sub-zero, as will need today trip layers for 20+ later today. It's a work trip).

BiddyPop · 12/12/2022 09:46

Bare sprinkling of new snow overnight but mostly a very hard frost underfoot - estates very sloppy but main roads ok (just don't ask to walk in the paths - there's "a meeting" to discuss gritting those today, it will all be thawed before they make a decision and start doing it!)

ListenLinda · 12/12/2022 10:24

Currently lightly snowing in Bradford, West Yorks. Not forecast, and nothing showing on the apps.

Creativecake · 12/12/2022 10:24

no snow in Greater Manchester sadly. Cold though!

ListenLinda · 12/12/2022 10:28

Worst thing is it’s really really fine and you just now than when the temp drops again, it will just be complete ice.

BiddyPop · 12/12/2022 10:52

Galway, on west coast of Ireland, is not nearly as cold and icy as Dublin on east coast. Some ice on ground but not build up.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 12/12/2022 11:43

There will be flurries today and these may pep up in the midlands and parts of northern England to give some accumulation.

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EmmaAgain22 · 12/12/2022 11:45

I am worried temps won't get up enough for snow to melt....looks that way till about Sunday.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 12/12/2022 11:46

hoochyhag · 12/12/2022 08:25

Interesting about the launch of those new meteostat weather satellites tomorrow Kitten.

www.ft.com/content/d7fc7971-f2a7-403b-8978-3de19d5736f2

More data, more accuracy for storms. It's struck me how difficult things are to predict. Especially in view of those stuck in the south east and west.

I remember living in Kent and snow being very rare indeed.

The new EUMETSATs will provide much needed additional data.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 12/12/2022 11:49

It does look as though things will warm next weekend, but there's a massive question over how long for.

Bit worried for those trying to travel by disrupted trains today given how early some of the network is shutting this evening in anticipation of the strikes.

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TokyoSushi · 12/12/2022 11:56

Looks like a winter wonderland here in Cheshire, snow still on the ground from Saturday morning and thick ice adding another level of jeopardy. Very foggy and trees all white, absolutely freezing, still -1 here!

colouringindoors · 12/12/2022 11:59

Can't get out of my road as its soooooo slippy (slight hill, 2 inch snow) and with this forecast, not sure when I will!!!

Winter Weather outlook
JenniferBooth · 12/12/2022 13:11

@EmmaAgain22 Yes What worries me is icy paths. Im going out at 3.30pm tomorrow and will do what i did back in 2018 I shall walk in the road but right near the kerb.

cheshirecatssmile · 12/12/2022 13:32

Snowing again in Cheshire

TokyoSushi · 12/12/2022 13:50

Ooh send it my way @cheshirecatssmile

EmmaAgain22 · 12/12/2022 15:24

JenniferBooth · 12/12/2022 13:11

@EmmaAgain22 Yes What worries me is icy paths. Im going out at 3.30pm tomorrow and will do what i did back in 2018 I shall walk in the road but right near the kerb.

Someone upthread suggested socks over shoes for better grip ..but won't the wet socks on a shoe sole be the same? I don't know.

walking in the road sounds best. I live on a main road so don't have the option.

FatAgainItsLettuceTime · 12/12/2022 15:58

@EmmaAgain22 socks over shoes really do help, not for like an 18 mile hike over frozen lakes or anything, but slippery pavements it does the trick. Some folks with more time on their hands than they should have even did a study on it in New Zealand 😂

www.theguardian.com/education/2010/mar/09/improbable-research-icy-socks-over-shoes

EmmaAgain22 · 12/12/2022 16:02

FatAgainItsLettuceTime · 12/12/2022 15:58

@EmmaAgain22 socks over shoes really do help, not for like an 18 mile hike over frozen lakes or anything, but slippery pavements it does the trick. Some folks with more time on their hands than they should have even did a study on it in New Zealand 😂

www.theguardian.com/education/2010/mar/09/improbable-research-icy-socks-over-shoes

Interesting, thanks.

I'll be the Weird Woman of North London!

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