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Weather

Winter Weather outlook

934 replies

OhYouBadBadKitten · 04/09/2022 11:37

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

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AtomicBlondeRose · 14/12/2022 10:07

Yep, finally snow in Scarborough! Whitby/Pickering roads all pretty bad this morning.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 14/12/2022 10:14

Morning!
Sorry I'm a little late. I see there's an emerging news story about many people in Shetland being without electricity since the beginning of the week due to snow.

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EmmaAgain22 · 14/12/2022 11:07

Oh poor Shetland, what a mare.

Kitten, I nearly told you about the similar name person but I see you've seen it too. Annoying that people can do that.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 14/12/2022 12:14

If they aren't a weather person, they can't have known. I should have thought ahead and used that as an alternative name in the past and it wouldn't have happened.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 14/12/2022 12:18

More warnings for Scotland until the end of the week. www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-12-16

Sundays evolution looks uncertain. It could be a snow to rain transition to warmer, but who gets what and exactly when is a very hand wavy exercise at this point! I suspect it would be northern areas that see any snow from it.

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colouringindoors · 14/12/2022 12:46

My local weather forecaster is talking about -10 in Chilterns tonight. Met office only shows-4 so not sure what model he's using!

OhYouBadBadKitten · 14/12/2022 12:50

Do you have snow cover colouring?

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colouringindoors · 14/12/2022 12:54

yeah couple of inches. Beautiful. But absolutely freezing. This morning:

Winter Weather outlook
colouringindoors · 14/12/2022 12:54

Monday

Winter Weather outlook
EmmaAgain22 · 14/12/2022 14:33

In north London
from the fourth floor, looks like more snow coming? Or freezing rain?

went out, mostly to check pavement. I can get to mum but I don't think she should go to her scan - too risky. She wants to wait till the morning though (Friday) but the forecast is awful.

JenniferBooth · 14/12/2022 14:54

The ice here just isnt melting. Two schools right across the road and the pavements are all compacted ice. Disgusting

EmmaAgain22 · 14/12/2022 15:03

JenniferBooth · 14/12/2022 14:54

The ice here just isnt melting. Two schools right across the road and the pavements are all compacted ice. Disgusting

Is it melting and being replaced?

I don't actually know if a taxi will make it up mum's road either. This puts me off tbh - I was going to get a cab from the station rather than risk the ice rink.

it probably looks better near me because I'm on a main road, whereas for mum, you walk across many side roads from the Tube.

definitely slap me if you see me complain about heat ever again.

InMySpareTime · 14/12/2022 15:07

We've had no precipitation since Saturday (Greater Manchester) and this snow hasn't melted yet.

Winter Weather outlook
JenniferBooth · 14/12/2022 15:11

@EmmaAgain22

twitter.com/livingstreets/status/1602717485236506624?s=20&t=5DVEsTBGXqfUol8zuCiEDA BBC London News tonight The equality issues of ungritted icy pavements.

GiantKitten · 14/12/2022 15:13

Just seen our forecast for Sunday onwards (in Lancs)
I am ecstatic!
(not expecting it to last but A BREAK!)

Winter Weather outlook
OhYouBadBadKitten · 14/12/2022 15:18

colouringindoors · 14/12/2022 12:46

My local weather forecaster is talking about -10 in Chilterns tonight. Met office only shows-4 so not sure what model he's using!

In some rural areas, especially with snow cover you can knock a couple of degrees at least off the met office forecast with clear winter skies. I've been running 2-4c below the met office meteogram forecasts overnight sometimes in the past couple of weeks and I am not rural.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 14/12/2022 15:19

No more snow coming Emma that I can see.

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EmmaAgain22 · 14/12/2022 15:23

OhYouBadBadKitten · 14/12/2022 15:19

No more snow coming Emma that I can see.

Thanks
You should see the sky here but a photo won't cut it

Jennifer yes, I don't recall a time when they did grit pavements though?

GiantKitten too many kittens 😂

yes, I think we have 5 on Sunday.

I never listen to long term forecasts but mum told me they forecast a mild winter. I only knew that the holly bushes were thick with berries....doom...

EmmaAgain22 · 14/12/2022 15:24

Oh, maybe freezing fog is descending on north London...

OhYouBadBadKitten · 14/12/2022 15:25

That's quite possible, with clear skies tonight, freezing fog could well be an issue again. Such joy!

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FourTeaFallOut · 14/12/2022 15:32

Are there any resources to find out how much snow has laid in a particular place - rather than what may fall?

EmmaAgain22 · 14/12/2022 17:09

Mum has moved the scan appointment

the lovely staff gave her another appt but also put her on the cancellation list.

She's meant to have an elderly neighbour come for tea tomorrow - literally about 30 yards away - but the road is still really bad so neither of them can risk it. Such a shame.

There's a thread about icy pavements but my experience is the best boots in the world won't help. I haven't tried the sock trick yet!

JenniferBooth · 14/12/2022 17:41

Really pleased she could get it moved @EmmaAgain22 Must be a relief for both of you.

JenniferBooth · 14/12/2022 18:10

Local Government Policy: We want to encourage more walking and less driving.
Local Government Action: We'll clear the roads of snow for motorists but won't touch the pavements.

TheSilveryPussycat · 14/12/2022 22:57

In ye olden days people used to put ash from their coal fires on the pavement outside.