Winter Weather outlook

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

Can I ask what the significance of the berries and acorns are regarding the weather?
Not an arsey question, genuinely curious!

I think traditionally, heavy crops of berries and acorns tend to signify a cold / long winter. The theory being that nature is providing for wildlife. It's been noted historically in Gardeners almanacs and word of mouth throughout history. It is perhaps regarded as anecdotal / superstition (for want of a better word) but still often used as an indicator for winter forecasts. I guess there is also a theory and correlation with warm summers producing high yields of said fruits. Warm summers also being linked with cold winters. (Again, historically and somewhat anecdotally) A bit like sayings of old such as 'Red sky at night, shepherds delight' etc. Steeped in folklore and used well before technology.

Perhaps weather patterns did work that way in the past to some extent. Heavy crops of nuts and berries are produced by the weather conditions they have grown in. But weather patterns are so messed up now that I wouldn't put any store in using this to predict what may happen.

It didn't come across at all arsey @ListenLinda , curiosity is always a good thing!

I'm cold tonight after a windy wet night was sunny mid afternoon the skies darkened and the perceived temperature fell. Fire lit I'm looking forward to cold sheets tonight. Welsh half term is looking interesting, rain, wind, thunderstorms guess who's visiting a farm on Wednesday. Hats, gloves and brollies I think

www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ndj-v1.pdf

The met office have released their 3 month outlook. Over Nov-Feb they have modelled the period as being most likely to be pretty average, but compared to usual, an increased risk of colder, drier, stiller weather.

This ties in well with some early indications for the second half of November, despite what those two models were throwing up as a possibility a few days ago.

I sincerely hope we get average winds with all our wind farm technology in my area. Last winter was so still they couldn't turn

The snow has melted but the Christmas lights are now on in Rovaniemi.

Puts sledge away 😔

I know. But Finse Railway Station in Norway and Longyearbyen has a slight covering at the moment!

Lure it our way

Had a hospital appointment today consultant from Sri Lanka he's been here two weeks and can't wait to see snow. We're on the n Wales coast haven't had a good coverage since 2010. It's just wet and windy. I said he'll have to head inland for a chance of it.

Oh @justasking111 I'm welsh too, though had to move to Yorkshire for any chance of the white stuff 😂
I remember we very rarely had any snow in the south wales valleys.
We had really heavy snowfall in Aberystwyth in about 1982, but hardly ever on the coast 😔
Fingers crossed for the consultant ☺️

Me too! So frustrating when other parts of the UK, even further south, get snow and we don't!

That's where I grew up. That's really not normal. I'm now in NI and seeing a similar pattern of mild weather - it's so mild my wisteria (two) haven't dropped a single leaf yet. My Virburnum has shed nearly all its leaves but has also produced three sets of blossom not usually seen until June.

Our jasmine is rampant, still climbing over everything. I've never seen that before.

Colder weather refuses to appear properly in the models. They show it briefly, then it vanishes again. Hence the no updates. Its hard to forecast winter when there doesnt really appear to be any.

It's windy and wet here in the SW. Heard something about a tumultuous day or two for the weather here, then milder on the way

I'll be so gutted if we don't get any cold weather.

Dublin City centre was mild and calm and slightly moist this afternoon - but in Dun Laoghaire ( a whole 12 km away!) we had torrential rain and raging winds. DH was very glad he'd put the rain gear on before cycling home.

House dropped to just below 16 degrees for the first time in daytime today. But we were in T-shirts standing outside in the hills in southern Wicklow yesterday morning. Whereas many years on this same weekend we've seen hard frosts on the Sunday morning!

Haven't even got my winter coat out yet.

North West Wales raging winds and torrential rain last night. Sunny this morning early on then back to rain. It's colder than last week

Soooo windy last night, kept me awake. But still very, very mild. Plants everywhere are seriously confused

I put mine on for the fireworks display on Saturday, because that's what you do when you go to a fireworks display, you wear a big coat, hat, gloves and you get a hot chocolate or chestnuts and enjoy being near a bonfire. Ended up taking the hat off after about 5 minutes, never put the gloves on and coat was unzipped all evening and making me feel overheated.

It didn't feel right!

Still so mild here and apparently potential for the warmest Armistice Day on record tomorrow. I keep looking at the modelling for any cooler, autumnal weather heading our way. It looks like potential for cooler temperatures in the next week to ten days possibly? Thank you for the Meteociel recommendation on the summer heatwave threads, @OhYouBadBadKitten, it’s one of my favourite toys now 😊