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Weather

Winter Weather outlook

934 replies

OhYouBadBadKitten · 04/09/2022 11:37

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

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CringeCrush · 15/11/2022 10:52

Thank you @OhYouBadBadKitten

Average sounds a bit more reassuring, although obviously there are implications for fuel bills. I know that we know climate change is real already, I think I wasn’t prepared for the sadness that I’d feel about plants trying to flower in November and the overall confusion it brings? Sorry if that sounds really silly, I know we all have pressing things to worry about in terms of the cost of living crisis. It just throws everything up in the air when the seasons don’t feel right.

Phrenologistsfinger · 15/11/2022 11:39

It’s pouring in Surrey and I am still grateful for every drop of rain as it means a better chance of things (and us!) getting through another crazily hot summer in 2023.

Are we still officially in drought in places? I am concerned we won’t have the above average rain we need to get back to normal over winter. Crossing everything for a wet winter tbh!

Phrenologistsfinger · 15/11/2022 11:41

Agree about plants trying to flower, it feels very wrong and if they get out of sync with pollinators, we face their demise and eventually then our own. The Black Mirror episode featuring drone bees for pollination because the bees all died really stuck with me.

GiantKitten · 15/11/2022 12:12

A different chart, from same FB source, who says this is “how 99.9% of beasts from the east start” 🤔
(He is an enthusiastic fan of terrible weather though. He was on to the 40C charts in summer very early)

Winter Weather outlook
OhYouBadBadKitten · 15/11/2022 21:21

Im not sure anyone could predict a beast from the east right now.

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GiantKitten · 15/11/2022 22:16

OhYouBadBadKitten · 15/11/2022 21:21

Im not sure anyone could predict a beast from the east right now.

Oh he isn’t predicting one! Just pointing out the pattern.

GloriaSmud · 16/11/2022 16:15

Weather warnings for rain over the next few days.

Tomorrow looks 'orrible for us - rain is supposed to start this evening and last right through tomorrow.

GloriaSmud · 16/11/2022 16:23

Actually thinking about it, maybe I should have put that weather warning in the 'Autumn storm warnings' thread - not sure it should be in the winter outlook one!

justasking111 · 16/11/2022 16:37

GloriaSmud · 16/11/2022 16:15

Weather warnings for rain over the next few days.

Tomorrow looks 'orrible for us - rain is supposed to start this evening and last right through tomorrow.

Temperature dropped here this afternoon. Seen flood warnings issued. Pretty normal here for us. North Wales.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 16/11/2022 19:34

A chance of freezing fog in places in northern Ireland overnight. Please take care there. And generally take care, some atrocious amounts of rain falling overnight in places on top of saturated ground.

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BiddyPop · 16/11/2022 20:34

temps dropped yesterday. It had still been 14 degrees on Monday but cold enough for a fire last night and only 5 degrees at 8am this morning and 8 degrees this evening. Lovely sunny day but heavy rain sometime between 5 and 7 (getting back from 1 meeting and emerging from my office again).

It will be good to kill off the bugs

BiddyPop · 16/11/2022 20:36

DSis, at the southern end of Ireland, could barely see the water outside her window this morning and too dense to see the trees across the river (40-50 feet away).

OhYouBadBadKitten · 17/11/2022 13:33

We have a specific rain thread (at last!) now.
www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4679425-rain-rain-go-away-weather-warnings

But a change is afoot more broadly. Perhaps some hill snow next week in northern areas and the first half of December is continuing to look more settled and cold. (perhaps with a hint in the forecast of a ptential for a bit more wider-spread snow)

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chimayrah · 17/11/2022 21:30

I just looked at the met office long range for 22 Nov - 2 december and it says mild, rainy and windy!

OhYouBadBadKitten · 17/11/2022 22:07

So they do! Its changing every time I look. Thus rendering this thread still rather pointless. Grin

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justasking111 · 17/11/2022 23:17

Living in Wales I think Ted Hughes nailed our weather in November

Conjured Sunlight
'These fragments I have shored against my ruins'

Tuesday, 18 January 2011
November by Ted Hughes
The month of the drowned dog. After long rain the land
Was sodden as the bed of an ancient lake.
Treed with iron and was bird less. In the sunk lane
The ditch – a seep silent all summer –

Made brown foam with a big voice: that, and my boots
On the lanes scrubbed stones, in the gulleyed leaves
Against the hill’s hanging silence;
Mist silvering the droplets on the bare thorns

Slower than the change of daylight.
In a let of the ditch a tramp was bundled asleep.
Face tucked down into beard, drawn in
Under his hair like a hedgehog’s. I took him for dead,

But his stillness separated from the death
From the rotting grass and the ground. The wind chilled,
And a fresh comfort tightened through him,
Each hand stuffed deeper into the other sleeve.

His ankles, bound with sacking and hairy hand,
Rubbed each other, resettling. The wind hardened;
A puff shook a glittering from the thorns,
And again the rains’ dragging grey columns

Smudged the farms. In a moment
The fields were jumping and smoking; the thorns
Quivered, riddled with the glassy verticals.
I stayed on under the welding cold

Watching the tramp’s face glisten and the drops on his coat
Slash and darken. I thought what strong trust
Slept in him- as the trickling furrows slept,
And the thorn roots in their grip on darkness;

And the buried stones taking the weight of winter;
The hill where the hare crouched with clenched teeth.
Rain plastered the land till it was shinning
Like hammered lead, and I ran, and in the rushing wood

Shuttered by a black oak leaned.
The Keeper’s gibbet had owls and hawks
By the neck, weasels, a gang of cats, crows:
Some stiff, weightless, twirled like dry bark bits

In the drilling rain. some still had their shape,
Had their pride with it; hung, chins on chests,
Patient to outwait these worst days that beat
Their crowns bare and dripped from their feet.

megletthesecond · 19/11/2022 07:51

Some cold and dry would be nice. The wet weather makes my house so chilly.

justasking111 · 19/11/2022 15:09

"November" poem by Thomas Hood

November

No sun - no moon!
No morn - no noon -
No dawn - no dusk - no proper time of day.
No warmth, no cheerfulness, no healthful ease,
No comfortable feel in any member -
No shade, no shine, no butterflies, no bees,
No fruits, no flowers, no leaves, no birds! -
November!

😭

NCHammer2022 · 19/11/2022 15:12

The rain is making it feel much colder than it is. It’s barely stopped raining since Wednesday and I’ve had the heating on much of today which I haven’t needed to on dry days the same temperature.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 19/11/2022 17:10

Thankfully where I am we've had a bit of a break in the rain and some blue skies. It's made such a difference, but going for a walk was a very slidey squelchy experience.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 19/11/2022 17:18

There should be some snow over Scottish hills tonight.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 19/11/2022 17:30

The met office have an exciting longer term outlook. Note the low confidence though and the fact that this keeps getting pushed back in their outlooks.

Winter Weather outlook
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TokyoSushi · 19/11/2022 20:04

Oooooh 👀

hoochyhag · 21/11/2022 11:57

Thanks Kitten 🤞
Gosh it will be good to put washing out for a bit on dry days, it seems to have been rainy every day lately 😔

OhYouBadBadKitten · 21/11/2022 13:32

Models are generally suggesting that next week a high pressure may start to build over the UK, blocking atlantic weather systems. This would allow a dry out and a cool down by night.

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