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Weather

Winter Weather outlook

934 replies

OhYouBadBadKitten · 04/09/2022 11:37

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

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EmmaAgain22 · 11/12/2022 14:21

melonraspberry · 11/12/2022 13:10

Bugger. As feared. Heating went out overnight. And it would be Sunday it happened wouldn't it .

Oh no, hope you can sort it asap

did my journey earlier than planned as I think snow en route.

many hardy souls got off the Tube at Camden, presumably to shop.

the flat temp has gone down lower than I've ever seen it, glad I left the boiler on (it's electric so like a huge kettle, hence I switch it off a lot).

I will 99% probably keep quiet in the next heatwave. Forgot how shitty this is.

MakingNBaking · 11/12/2022 14:22

Thank you Gloria and TwoRock.
It's all piled up in the hall, I won't make a decision till the morning.

I'm in Kent at the moment, so maybe won't be in a position to move anyway come morning!

melonraspberry · 11/12/2022 15:19

Snowing hard here now 🥶

justasking111 · 11/12/2022 15:42

m.facebook.com/groups/381688085599512/permalink/1636130100155298/?ref=share

Don't know if this will work but amazing video of carneddu range from Anglesey

Winter Weather outlook
Vintagevixen · 11/12/2022 15:51

Snowing on the East Sussex coast!!!!!

FanniesFlaps · 11/12/2022 16:38

Not too far from Telford here and we’ve had a good covering of snow today. Not looking forward to the 6am drive to work tomorrow morning.

GloriaSmud · 11/12/2022 16:41

Netweather's thoughts on the coming week - looks like cold conditions are set to continue.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/12/2022 16:55

fancyacuppatea · 11/12/2022 13:43

@OhYouBadBadKitten did you get into the car?
That really cold icy winter about 10yrs ago...I used an old hairdryer on an extension lead (with circuit breaker) to defrost the seal to get into the car. Xmas Grin Set it on a low speed/low heat setting.

We did in the end. That's a great idea though! Just back home so I need to catch up with the latest weather forecast. I'm not sure where to start, I feel a bit overwhelmed by what is a complicated picture.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/12/2022 17:02

Ok, one area at a time.

This is the main area of concern as it pivots through into East Anglia. There's a question of how far north , how much pivot and how much fizzling out/pepping up/infilling is going to happen. The worst is likely to be on the eastern side of the warning area.

Note in the impact matrix, there is potential for this to be upgraded to an amber in a smaller area. So please keep an eye out on the met office and pay attention to local media.

Winter Weather outlook
Winter Weather outlook
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OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/12/2022 17:08

Then we have freezing fog and ice warnings for many areas until late tomorrow morning. Note that even if you aren't in one of these areas, travel could still be a little treacherous away from main roads. Warning areas should be viewed as soft boundaries, impactful weather can still occur outside them

Winter Weather outlook
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OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/12/2022 17:10

And the final met office warning for overnight into tonight - northern fringes of Scotland will continue to see bouts of wintery weather.

www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings for all the met office warnings.

Winter Weather outlook
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reallyworriedjobhunter · 11/12/2022 17:14

Not a sausage here in West London. Frosty but no snow.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/12/2022 17:20

Looking into the middle of the week- both the UKMO and GFS models currently show snow potential for Tuesday night into Wednesday for the south of England. There's a lot of uncertainty for this one. My instinct is that it will trend southward and not hit us, but instinct can be wrong.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/12/2022 17:20

reallyworriedjobhunter · 11/12/2022 17:14

Not a sausage here in West London. Frosty but no snow.

It may stay that way, you may find that it all goes east of you.

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ChocHotolate · 11/12/2022 17:38

Snow in Hammersmith! ❄️

OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/12/2022 17:48

Nice one Choc!

I think it might be a bit tricky at the mainline rail stations in central London if this keeps up. Good luck to anyone who anyone there who needs to get home out of town tonight. Check your rail operator!

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BatshitCrazyWoman · 11/12/2022 17:57

It's snowing here London/Kent border. Has been a hard frost and freezing fog all day. The Met Office are forecasting snow for a lot of tonight, so I think the trains will be impacted early tomorrow, so my commute may be tricky/impossible.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/12/2022 17:58

There may be other councils warning people not to travel, like Cornwall. www.cornwall.gov.uk/council-news/transport-streets-and-waste/council-warning-to-avoid-unnecessary-travel-during-freezing-and-treacherous-conditions/ Check your local council pages if it may affect you.

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Tenementfunster · 11/12/2022 18:03

Snow in Richmond, SW London

JenniferBooth · 11/12/2022 18:09

Im in Braintree Essex Will there be any impact affecting here.

Comedycook · 11/12/2022 18:12

It's snowing here in South East London

Titsywoo · 11/12/2022 18:12

Snowing and settling on London/Surrey border

ArcaneWireless · 11/12/2022 18:12

Tiny flurry of snow earlier. Not anything to write home about.

It is now minus 7 and is cold enough to feel ok if that makes sense.

I’d the same when it was minus 22 here about 12 years ago. It rose to minus 10 and I was wandering about with an undone coat.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/12/2022 18:17

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-63937739 shit. A rescue operation in Solihull after people fell through ice on a lake.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/12/2022 18:19

JenniferBooth · 11/12/2022 18:09

Im in Braintree Essex Will there be any impact affecting here.

I think theres a reasonable probability of it impacting your area tonight.

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