Winter Weather outlook

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

Weather apps in general wont show much of todays snow. They cant respond to these locally dynamic weather events. It always feels more signficant when they dont show snow because snow is such an impactful event.

I'm going to be away from my phone for a few hours in a bit, bit Im looking forward to reading everyones updates when Im back.

Oo we've had a sprinkling of snow.

W mids

Unusually heavy snow (if radar is correct) is pushing along the Dorset coast and into Hampshire. Any Isle Of Wight mumsnetters might have some fairly rare snow fun coming up.

What do people reckon of my chances of an uneventful journey from London to Evesham tomorrow?
I'm building a pile of foul weather gear in the hall ready to go into the car but really unsure whether to bother putting it in.
BBC weather doesn't seem to tally with what you on-the-ground people are reporting.

0C here (Leicester), slightly foggy with the odd tiny flake of snow falling at times.
(Can I remind folks to feed the birds during this cold snap - I've just filled our feeders as they're going through fat balls every few days!)

MakingNBaking - I'd still put your gear in the car. The Cotswolds are due to have snow until midday/early afternoon today but hopefully by tomorrow, roads will be OK. But temperatures are going to be around 0C so drive carefully and allow extra time for your journey.
(Hope you don't mind me answering - I'm a sort of 'deputy' weather person to OYBBK. She's the expert and I 'chip in' occasionally/answer questions if she's not around and hopefully get the answer right!)

My feeding places are besieged by hordes of rock (feral) pigeons! I'm feeding a family each of magpies and crows and they are quite timid compared to pigeons that get in straight away and scoff the lot. Little sods.

Can confirm that The Cotswolds have had a big dump of snow already and it’s just started again, and the temperature is still around freezing, so there will be ice even if the snow has started to clear by tomorrow. Leave extra time if you can!

I've got bird tables and hanging feeders. The pigeons go for the tables but the smaller birds mostly go for the hanging feeders, so hopefully both sizes are kept happy (and the squirrels go for both!)

Warnings updated for the south coast as reflected in that radar. www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-12-11

Snowing now, North Downs, Kent

The birds have been mobbing our bird feeders for the last few days. I’m topping them up at least twice a day!

It’s beautifully frosty here - it looked like it was trying to snow briefly earlier. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get some later.

We've driven to Bath to see family and it was really odd. Barely any snow at home, yet less than a mile away it was thickly laid and coming down like goose feathers. The whole journey (about 30 miles) was like that, localised heavy snow that had settled then a bit of snizzle with nothing laying then heavy snow again! Getting up to the top of the steeeeeep hill where my family live in Bath was interesting though 😆

Bugger. As feared. Heating went out overnight. And it would be Sunday it happened wouldn't it .

-7 here when I got up and found out !

Oh no, awful timing.

We're under blankets watching tv all day today !! I've messaged loads of plumbers but no replies, think they're all snowed (ha!)-

@OhYouBadBadKitten did you get into the car?
That really cold icy winter about 10yrs ago...I used an old hairdryer on an extension lead (with circuit breaker) to defrost the seal to get into the car. Set it on a low speed/low heat setting.

I chuck sultanas and mealworms near the fence/bushes for the blackbirds too...they were mobbed by starlings earlier, but not until after the robin and the sparrows had been in.
We don't see many squirrels, but one did leave an incriminating empty acorn shell...

If it's because the pipe has frozen is there any way to safely pop an electric heater into the loft to defrost it then try resetting the boiler?

@FatAgainItsLettuceTime I don't have an electric heater but I do have a long extension lead and a hairdryer ... I know you're not really supposed to use hairdryers on extension leads though , I don't know if it would defrost the outside but through the roof would it ? I'm just a bit wary of turning a small crisis into a disaster!!

My gate lock freezes sometimes so I can't get the car out and I pour boiling water on jt that works - would it work the same for a frozen car?

Not sure how well the hairdryer would work through the roof tiles. I suppose if you get a plumber they may be able to lag the pipe at the same time to prevent this happening over and over again for you.

It's already lagged inside . I think it needs rerouting completely

Just enough for us to get out with the sledge.