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Weather

Winter Weather outlook

934 replies

OhYouBadBadKitten · 04/09/2022 11:37

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

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ListenLinda · 11/12/2022 07:45

Temperature at school run time tomorrow. And then at home time at 3pm, it’s going to be -2. That is chilly!

Winter Weather outlook
reallyworriedjobhunter · 11/12/2022 07:47

Thick thick fog and frost in London and -3. The cat is not happy!

StandUpStraight · 11/12/2022 08:00

Unlurking to say I love what OYBBK does - thank you for sharing your knowledge with us - and it’s snowing gently here In Gloucestershire.

KeziaOAP · 11/12/2022 08:08

We have snow West Gloucestershire about 2cm.

LadyFlumpalot · 11/12/2022 08:21

South Somerset - it's had a small attempt at a flurry, looks like someone's been at the decking with an icing sugar shaker. It's very overcast though so I'm hoping for more.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/12/2022 08:22

awww StandUpStraight Xmas Blush I'm glad you have some snow.

www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-12-11 Warnings have been updated included a new one for fog for much of central England.

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paleviolet · 11/12/2022 08:23

Minus 4 here.
Do you walk your dogs in this weather?
Not sure whether to?

nannynick · 11/12/2022 08:37

@paleviolet Not for long.

Winter Weather outlook
AFingerofFudge · 11/12/2022 08:49

We have really heavy snow here in my part of Gloucestershire and it's still snowing and yet DS1 who lives about 5 miles has had only a dusting and it stopped earlier

OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/12/2022 08:55

It looks to me as though as well as the snow in western southern and central regions as present now, an area of freezing rain and snow will pivot into south eastern england today, affecting areas before the met office warning starts this evening.

It looks like a pretty nasty day for travelling in many areas with a mix of freezing rain (near coasts), snow, ice and fog. Please do take care and check your regional forecasts.

Be prepared for pop up warnings through the day from the Met Office.

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TwoRockSalmonAndAHaporthOfChips · 11/12/2022 08:55

AFingerofFudge · 11/12/2022 08:49

We have really heavy snow here in my part of Gloucestershire and it's still snowing and yet DS1 who lives about 5 miles has had only a dusting and it stopped earlier

Hello Fudge, I think we must be near neighbours! We have about 4 inches now, maybe a bit more, and it’s still coming down heavily. The sky is full of it! DH was just saying we are lucky most of our neighbourhood doesn’t work on Sunday. We have a steep slope down to the main road out of our street and in this weather it’s more common to slide out of the junction than drive.

treadcarefully · 11/12/2022 09:00

It's snowed overnight in north Birmingham!

whojamaflip · 11/12/2022 09:04

Light dusting of snow in west oxon with very fine snow still falling.

borntobequiet · 11/12/2022 09:10

Steady snow here in S Worcs. I’m quite high up and won’t be going anywhere for a couple of days. Better find a good book.

AFingerofFudge · 11/12/2022 09:10

@TwoRockSalmonAndAHaporthOfChips yes we must be close as it's all hills here. Thankfully I've got a few days off as I don't think I'd make it down our hill today!

Tricyrtis2022 · 11/12/2022 09:10

Tiny flakes of snow in west Oxfordshire.

AFingerofFudge · 11/12/2022 09:12

And here's the view

Winter Weather outlook
vintagechick43 · 11/12/2022 09:19

A fair bit of snow here in south Warwickshire, it’s coming down quite heavy at the moment.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/12/2022 09:21

Latest snow radar estimates.
Sorry that it chops off the top of Scotland. I don't know why it does, other than maybe their radar doesn't cover it.

Winter Weather outlook
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HipHopBanzai · 11/12/2022 09:23

No snow or ice here at all this morning in South Manchester. Not sure what the temperature was over night but can't have been as cold as the last few nights as all the snow and ice has melted.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/12/2022 09:33

We are supposed to be going out this morning, but we can't get into the car as it is frozen shut. Xmas Confused

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treadcarefully · 11/12/2022 09:36

Still snowing here ( Birmingham) yet BBC weather app not reporting any snow 🤷‍♀️

crikeybiller · 11/12/2022 09:53

Have I missed the Christmas update ? Will this cold snap continue over next weekend do you think?

OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/12/2022 10:08

www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4686426-the-annual-mumsnet-christmas-weather-thread Christmas update is in here.

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BouleBaker · 11/12/2022 10:10

I read your 08:55 forecast out to DH and he is now cream cheesing a bagel while yelling "Pivot"! It also looks like we may finally see some snow in Southampton, which is very rare.