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Weather

Winter Weather outlook

934 replies

OhYouBadBadKitten · 04/09/2022 11:37

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

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RafaistheKingofClay · 10/12/2022 09:44

No disruptive snow before the 21st for the SW would be good. After that it can do what it likes.

GloriaSmud · 10/12/2022 09:57

OhYouBadBadKitten · 10/12/2022 09:37

That's it. I'm moving to Manchester.

Me too - it's nice to see their snow shield has been breached! Xmas Grin

OhYouBadBadKitten · 10/12/2022 10:09

I still think it is very sad that this thread will not be in trending because MN have switched that off for threads older than 30 days Xmas Sad

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Tricyrtis2022 · 10/12/2022 10:12

You have a dedicated following, Kitten, we will spread the word!

FourTeaFallOut · 10/12/2022 10:25

I'm still here. I have a coat shy teen off on a outdoor-adventure residential thing in N.Yorkshire next week and I find myself crossing my fingers that it won't actually snow.

RedDiamond · 10/12/2022 10:55

Ohh! Getting excited now. I love tracking the snow and on the Snow Radar, there is more and more pink appearing (pink indicates snow).

meteoradar.co.uk/realtime-snowfall

ArcaneWireless · 10/12/2022 10:59

More up the hill but this is lower down.

Winter Weather outlook
Perihelion · 10/12/2022 11:16

Snow at sea level in Edinburgh. Seems to be warming up a bit now.

Winter Weather outlook
ArcaneWireless · 10/12/2022 11:23

Beautiful snappage perihelion

OhYouBadBadKitten · 10/12/2022 14:41

Two areas to highlight in particular for tomorrow, and Monday. First the Kent/Sussex/London potential for tomorrow evening. This could be either nothing, or snow or a horrid mix that would result in a nasty icy commute for Monday morning.

Secondly, central southern areas may see a little snow tomorrow morning. Where? Models disagree, so it's a wait and see if it happens and where it happens.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 10/12/2022 14:45

www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-12-10 updated warnings.
For each warning click on 'further details' for more information and the impact matrix, which tells you how severe an events impacts might be and the likelihood of those impacts happening.

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EmmaAgain22 · 10/12/2022 15:25

I'm on the Tube - partly over the ground - tomorrow afternoon - so should be clear of anything, fingers crossed. Then hopefully I don't have to go out till Thursday.

I had forgotten how miserable these days are when you have to do things. Worries me in terms of energy reserves as well.

fancyacuppatea · 10/12/2022 16:05

Speaking from a bit further south in Cheshire, I'm quite disappointed 😞 We had mahoosive flakes around 9am...then tiny powdery balls of polystyrene at about 10...then rain.
At least it saved me clearing the cars.

Manchester Airport was closed for a while earlier - there were pics on BBC...glad I wasn't trying to land an A380 on that!
@OhYouBadBadKitten you need to refine your relocation search. Wink

OhYouBadBadKitten · 10/12/2022 16:41

Sounds like you had a bit of graupel fancy.
Temperatures in your area hovering around freezing overnight, so take care tomorrow morning.

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Perihelion · 10/12/2022 17:01

Grim 3c and rain now. Due to get to 0c soon, and more precipitation. Imagine a bit of a icey start tomorrow.

hoochyhag · 10/12/2022 17:46

They are promising us two snowflakes at midnight 😮 I will believe it when I see it 🙄

hoochyhag · 10/12/2022 17:50

Thanks for all this lovely info though OYBBK we really appreciate it Flowers

OhYouBadBadKitten · 10/12/2022 17:52

You're welcome Hoochy.
Im hoping that I'll get some decent snow as a reward! Unlikely for me.

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fancyacuppatea · 10/12/2022 17:57

Thanks OYBBK
DH is taking a car out tomorrow to do a recce of the local Hosp - I've an appt on Tues afternoon and he's not sure where he can drop me off.
Raining here. We've just bunged up the vent for the tumble dryer with a towel in a binbag. Hopefully it makes it a bit less cold in the kitchen.

melonraspberry · 10/12/2022 20:00

Meanwhile I've got my loft hatch open letting all the warm air go to the loft to try and help the boiler condensate not freeze like it did 2 years ago !

Next summer I'm going to have to get it rerouted I think, wasn't expecting it to be so cold again for years .

Mogloveseggs · 10/12/2022 21:44

Well dm got her birthday wish-no snow. But it snowed today.
this was when I got to work at 7.30 this morning after a rather hairy journey. Expecting another hairy journey tomorrow!

Winter Weather outlook
justasking111 · 10/12/2022 23:09

Snowing here n Wales but big sloppy stuff. So can't see it lasting

OhYouBadBadKitten · 10/12/2022 23:22

That looks skiddy Mog

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colouringindoors · 10/12/2022 23:33

No snow here but already -6!

OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/12/2022 00:15

Snap Colouring I think cloud cover will limit this later though.

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