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Weather

Winter Weather outlook

934 replies

OhYouBadBadKitten · 04/09/2022 11:37

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 09/12/2022 22:28

I forgot to say, my wheelie bin tip is to use something like a stick lying horizontally between the bin and the lid to prop the lid open slightly.

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justasking111 · 09/12/2022 22:35

Our fridge freezer and freezer in the garage cut out as did the kitchen fridge last night. I got some coke out of the garage it was almost slushie today

tapdancingmum · 10/12/2022 00:17

Daughter came in from work about half an hour ago and said the front door was frozen shut and that then inside of her car has frozen twice today. It does seem a lot colder than they say.

cheshirecatssmile · 10/12/2022 06:12

Morning all
Woke up to a patchy blanket of snow in east Cheshire and it's started to snow again.

GloriaSmud · 10/12/2022 06:59

-3.4C here in Leicester this morning.

GloriaSmud · 10/12/2022 07:02

uksnowmap has some early snow reports.

TokyoSushi · 10/12/2022 07:13

Yay @OhYouBadBadKitten we've done it!!!! It's snowing nicely and sticking here in Cheshire!! 😃😃😃

(I always feel like the snow is a little gift from you! 🤣)

cheshirecatssmile · 10/12/2022 07:16

TokyoSushi · 10/12/2022 07:13

Yay @OhYouBadBadKitten we've done it!!!! It's snowing nicely and sticking here in Cheshire!! 😃😃😃

(I always feel like the snow is a little gift from you! 🤣)

We have more to come apparently depending on with app you look at.
Think I may have to change my outfit for works Xmas do tonight!

ListenLinda · 10/12/2022 07:49

I saw a notification on my phone when I woke up ‘snow stopping in your area soon’, assumed not as it wasn’t forecast 😂 just looked outside and I actually thought it was a hard frost but I stuck my hand out of the window and it was actually snow.
light little dusting, first snowfall of winter here in West Yorkshire 😊

TokyoSushi · 10/12/2022 08:13

Eeeek it's really heavy here now!!

cheshirecatssmile · 10/12/2022 08:15

TokyoSushi · 10/12/2022 08:13

Eeeek it's really heavy here now!!

Hope it comes to our side of the valley!

beenrumbled · 10/12/2022 08:27

Snow shilwd breach 😁

RafaistheKingofClay · 10/12/2022 08:35

I think I’ve got OYBBK’s 0.13cm of snow.

Perihelion · 10/12/2022 08:52

Snowing in Edinburgh. Big fat flakes 😍

justasking111 · 10/12/2022 08:56

Two sons have to drive from Liverpool to North Wales today I wonder if they'll see snow

cheshirecatssmile · 10/12/2022 08:56

Got big flakes at last ❄️❄️

OhYouBadBadKitten · 10/12/2022 09:09

RafaistheKingofClay · 10/12/2022 08:35

I think I’ve got OYBBK’s 0.13cm of snow.

Lucky!
I've have frost deep enough to look like a little snow. But I'd rather the real thing!

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 10/12/2022 09:10

TokyoSushi · 10/12/2022 07:13

Yay @OhYouBadBadKitten we've done it!!!! It's snowing nicely and sticking here in Cheshire!! 😃😃😃

(I always feel like the snow is a little gift from you! 🤣)

awwww, that's warmed my cockles Xmas Grin

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 10/12/2022 09:19

This is where showers are currently. Feeding in quite nicely for many near western coastal areas or eastern Scotland.

Winter Weather outlook
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cheshirecatssmile · 10/12/2022 09:19

Good snow coming down now. Dog is loving it!
It's sticking to the wet , need to grit my paths I think

OhYouBadBadKitten · 10/12/2022 09:21

Looking at the wind direction, I wonder if the Manchester snow shield is being breached or is about to be later this morning. If it is, then Manchester has done much better for snow than I have the past few years!

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Suseal · 10/12/2022 09:31

South Manchester, we have snow and still coming down. Hoping it will melt by tonight, I've got places to go 😬

cheshirecatssmile · 10/12/2022 09:32

Suseal · 10/12/2022 09:31

South Manchester, we have snow and still coming down. Hoping it will melt by tonight, I've got places to go 😬

Ditto
Will be ditching the heels for boots I reckon

OhYouBadBadKitten · 10/12/2022 09:36

For other people not blessed with a festive sprinkle yet:

Looking at UKV, which is a short range, high resolution model. Tomorrow evening may just be confined to Kent and the mid week snow for the south looks to stay south of the UK.

GFs instead shows snow over Sussex rather than Kent into Monday but then brings a brief period of snow over central southern England tracking through Wales (I'm not sure I've ever seen that scenario before!) It too keeps the mid week snow south of the UK and doesn't really discard snow risk at all throughout the period apart from a brief warm up 17th to 21st ish. I must update the Christmas forecast thread Wink

But take that all with a big tub of gritting salt. As Cheshire have seen, snow can pop up at short notice, disappoint others and next weekend is a long way away at the moment (unless you need to christmas shop or get something in the post!)

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 10/12/2022 09:37

That's it. I'm moving to Manchester.

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