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Weather

Winter Weather outlook

934 replies

OhYouBadBadKitten · 04/09/2022 11:37

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

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Thread gallery
79
Stardustkid · 09/12/2022 06:26

@CoffeeBeansGalore beautiful

Titsywoo · 09/12/2022 09:16

Suddenly got very fine snow in East Surrey 🤔

OhYouBadBadKitten · 09/12/2022 09:42

Some snow perhaps moving into parts of northern Wales today.

Winter Weather outlook
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Pidgeonslipshit · 09/12/2022 11:09

A few flakes of snow here in South East !

justasking111 · 09/12/2022 12:19

Raining here in N Wales. Rained overnight then froze. A few pile ups on the roads. Temperature now 2.6c was -1.6c at 9am

TokyoSushi · 09/12/2022 13:10

Hurrah, the Cheshire snow shield has been breached! 2 x good 10 minute blasts here so far!!

ListenLinda · 09/12/2022 13:12

Met Office issued a yellow warning for snow on Monday.

justasking111 · 09/12/2022 13:17

TokyoSushi · 09/12/2022 13:10

Hurrah, the Cheshire snow shield has been breached! 2 x good 10 minute blasts here so far!!

Son and mates off to Liverpool from n Wales milestone birthday. Guess they'll see snow then

cheshirecatssmile · 09/12/2022 13:22

East Cheshire it's snowing!

DingDangMerrily · 09/12/2022 14:07

West Cheshire, rain here and my car thinks it’s 10 degrees.

cheshirecatssmile · 09/12/2022 14:10

DingDangMerrily · 09/12/2022 14:07

West Cheshire, rain here and my car thinks it’s 10 degrees.

😂

OhYouBadBadKitten · 09/12/2022 14:35

www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-12-11

Snow and ice warnings out for the weekend.

For the London and SE people, please dont get too excited yet. This is a very low confidence for a moderate impact warning. That means that confidence of it happening is less than 30%, but if it did happen it could then be disruptive.

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EmmaAgain22 · 09/12/2022 15:00

OhYouBadBadKitten · 09/12/2022 14:35

www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-12-11

Snow and ice warnings out for the weekend.

For the London and SE people, please dont get too excited yet. This is a very low confidence for a moderate impact warning. That means that confidence of it happening is less than 30%, but if it did happen it could then be disruptive.

I will breathe a huge sigh of relief if the snow risk is gone.

TokyoSushi · 09/12/2022 15:11

The absolute worst here in Cheshire, all of the previous precipitation has frozen solid, the ground is absolutely treacherous 😲

TinFoilHatty · 09/12/2022 15:13

TokyoSushi · 09/12/2022 15:11

The absolute worst here in Cheshire, all of the previous precipitation has frozen solid, the ground is absolutely treacherous 😲

Cripes, that is scary.

EmmaAgain22 · 09/12/2022 15:16

TokyoSushi · 09/12/2022 15:11

The absolute worst here in Cheshire, all of the previous precipitation has frozen solid, the ground is absolutely treacherous 😲

That is the worst. Actually there's snow showers forecast for me Sunday night, but after that, the difference in temps on XCweather and Accuweather is massive.

the last reliable one for me, in terms of saying "snow" when no others did, was XCweather. I was lucky to cancel a ticketed thing on the basis if that, others were caught out.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 09/12/2022 16:28

TokyoSushi · 09/12/2022 15:11

The absolute worst here in Cheshire, all of the previous precipitation has frozen solid, the ground is absolutely treacherous 😲

Oh crumbs. Take care!

Models continue to show a variety of potential snow scenarios. As Tokyo shows, it doesn't take much for something to pop up, then cause absolute chaos.

I would keep a very close eye on met office warnings for the next week. Obviously I'll do my best to update with anything, but sadly I can't model watch quite as much as I'd like to!

You can also keep an eye on radar of course. www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/rainfall-radar-forecast-map#?bbox=<a class="break-all" href="//44.37098696297173,-29.926757812500004],[62.57310578449978,21.928710937500004" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">44.37098696297173,-29.926757812500004],[62.57310578449978,21.928710937500004&model=ukmo-ukv&layer=rainfall-rate&timestep=1670603400000 won't tell you what kind of precipitation is falling, but you can track showers using it and have a guess at what might be coming down. I can see that there is a 'nice' train of showers through the cheshire gap at present.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 09/12/2022 16:29

What happened to that link! Shock
www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/rainfall-radar-forecast-map

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Creativecake · 09/12/2022 16:32

That radar….hilariously sees precipitation circling Manchester but not quite sitting there. Snow shield intact.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 09/12/2022 16:33

I beg your pardon (sorry for the multiple posts!) you can now use that link to look at what type of precip is falling. Use with great caution when advancing the slider into the future. It's not a link I normally use and they've upgraded it, so I'm not quite sure what's what with it.

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nannynick · 09/12/2022 16:34

Sunday afternoon and night seems like it may be the snow event where I am (Surrey/Hampshire/Berkshire border) but it is a few days off yet so will see if the models still keep that snow or not.

MistletoeMouse · 09/12/2022 17:51

TokyoSushi · 09/12/2022 15:11

The absolute worst here in Cheshire, all of the previous precipitation has frozen solid, the ground is absolutely treacherous 😲

Same here. My village seems to have a micro climate of it's own. We are usually the ones still frozen days / weeks after everyone else has thawed. All I've heard ouside since 8pm last night has been cars crawling along the frozen ice and snow outside.

But, something else.. I live in a stone floored bungalow (with wood flooring on top) I cannot get the house warm any more. The floor is freezing and that cold seems to radiate (I can feel it now with two pairs of socks and trainers on, sitting on the sofa) Our temp this morning was -2 but the 'feels like' temp was -9. The extreme from the summer weather of 40 degrees and this cold spell has been more palpable tha I ever remember. (And I'm 501 and went through some severe winters in the late 70's)

MistletoeMouse · 09/12/2022 17:53

Oh crikey. 51, not 501! I'm not a vampire.
Although I do remember seeing frozen jeans hung out on washing lines as a kid.

fancyacuppatea · 09/12/2022 21:20

@cheshirecatssmile My bit of East Cheshire got some sleet mixed in with rain...but it's enough to have frozen the lid tight on my wheelie bin. 🤦‍♀️

EmmaAgain22 · 09/12/2022 22:22

Mistletoe interesting because I was just thinking that it's colder than they say.

and I had trouble with my keys in the door tonight, tried the spare...could maybe be the cold?