Winter Weather outlook

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

I hope Friday is a snow no show for you @Mogloveseggs . We are hoping for no snow on Saturday as we've booked for dd to go and see Father Christmas. Lovely as snow can be it would be a little ironic (and sad) if snow stopped that happening! Luckily we haven't told her so she wouldn't know.

Thank you.
Fingers crossed for you too hope your Dd has a lovely time.

I think I wouldn't fret too much about the possibility of snow yet, unless you are in the warning area.

Met Office and UKHSA have issued a cold weather alert level 3.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/?tab=coldWeatherAlert&season=normal

These are issued to warn local authorities and health trusts to put their cold weather action plans in progress, in the same way that the heat health alerts worked. But they are a good reminder that we need to take extra care with vulnerable people we know.

The alert finishes on Monday, which means we have reasonable confidence that the severe cold will last to at least then.

I've just googled my Local Council for "Cold Weather Action Plan" and it's pretty clueless, takes me to a "wellbeing" page that doesn't really say much other than the "keep warm, hot drinks, add layers" kind of thing...
Somebody, somewhere is making ££££££ out of altering a webpage.
In the summer it was "drink water, stay in the shade, keep cool"...

I know there's not much they can do...other than turn the temp up at the library, but it seems a bit of a blame someone else/buck-passing thing.

In other news, it doesn't feel quite as cold outside as I thought it would today

All this stuff is just job creation at the taxpayers expense. Ask me how I know!

if it snows, I'll stay with mum for the duration. I'm already worried about power cuts but it hasn't occurred to her. So I'll do the prep and just leave her unworried. Main thing is her house is designed as a freezer which is unfortunate.

Just one thing...I defrost the inside of my car with a hot water bottle...yes, I know what you're thinking 🤔🤣 but it also thaws the ouside and takes the ice off the inside, so you just need to wipe it with a microfibre cloth/kitchen roll.
Chuck it onto the central part of the dashboard about half an hour before you need to go out and it will save you a bit on fuel/de-icer.

@EmmaAgain22 Ex-LA here...yeah, I know. 🤦‍♀️
Don't forget to take a torch, matches and candles. I bought DH a woolly hat with a rechargable torch/headlight thingy in it from amazon for about £8. He uses it to put the bins out.

fancyacuppatea, what about the other windows?

Reading back what I said last night, I probably need to reassess what I consider to be severe cold. I tend to think of it as multiple days of below 0C maxima.This is the Met Office definition. I expect it has been written with regards to measurable healthcare impact.

If Scotland and Wales are wondering why they aren't on the map, these alerts are only given for England. I'm not sure of any equivalent alert system.

There should be a lot of behind the scenes actions for cold weather. Of course, how much of that is hot air nowadays is anyones guess.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1115873/2022-to-2023-cold-weather-plan-for-England.pdf

You'd still need to do some work (de-icer/wipe/scrape) but it's still quicker to get off the drive.

@OhYouBadBadKitten There's more than a page of abreviations...I need 🍺 before that.
@EmmaAgain22 are you feeling brave enough..? It's written in full-LA-speak 🤦‍♀️
What on earth is MECC 🤯

Two suggestions...You either shove the cold weather plan up your jumper for added insulation, or burn it...

I got to p8

"seek income maximisation advice and other services"

before I lost the will...

Work harder, earn more money.

Our council we used to have big yellow grit bins, we're on a steep hill. There were lots dotted about wherever there were steep roads. We were expected to get a shovel and spread it ourselves. No problem until the first Icy snap a man on a tractor with a trailer went around in the early hours and robbed every one. The council's solution they removed every single one. So now we're stuffed because they won't grit side roads

We've got a grit bin...it's empty and has been for a couple of yrs. And we're on an ambulance route which is supposed to be gritted, but because of some mahoosive roadworks and even though it's the shortcut to the official detour they're not bothering. 🤦‍♀️

Good summary fancy

I wanted to highlight the UKV model forecast temperatures for Friday morning at going to school/work time. UKV is the met office high resolution model. Wrap up well and if you have water containers out for animals, perhaps get them in at night.

I should also point out that very low temperatures are also expected over Wednesday night into Thursday. Today will feel positively balmy in comparison outside!

fancy I don't read LA reports or look at weather models! 😂

my sister wants to go out on Friday night, I'm going to ask her to come to me. She's the sort who only ever wears a winter coat if it's minus something.

I've got a bit further...

^The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) commissioned an independent evaluation
of the CWP from the Policy Innovation Research Unit, (PIRU).^

How many people does it take to tell you to put a jumper or coat on/turn the heating up if you can afford it with your income maximisation 😡

I'm on p15...it's going to kill my liver before I get to the end but I bravely will do it in the name of "research" for the OYBBK Winter thread

Thanks, that makes sense.

Thats the spirit Fancy!

But whyyyy would you want to read that?

But whyyyy would you want to read that?
I don't, but for OYBBK and research purposes and beer I'll see the bloody thing to the end...
<heads to fridge>

Don't forget to turn off outside taps at the stopcock (or wherever you turn yours off) and lag external pipes from boilers before wednesday night.

The above said in a slightly panicked voice at remembering from the past....