Winter Weather outlook

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

I think there will be a lot of traffic on the thread this week! Models are really firming up on the cold and snow potential this evening.

For the next three days, generally it will be dry, with any snow showers confined probably to northern hills, though I still feel there is the chance for some pop up snow surprises from small scale instabilities.

Then Thursday onwards sees potential for more widespread snow. No details yet Im afraid. It will be very cold, with deep frosts overnight in rural areas where skies clear.

Kitten, are you thinking snow in London too?

Plops.

I hope the cold isn't here for the long term, I had pneumonia a few weeks ago and my chest was really feeling the cold air just popping to the shop earlier.

We've just had our first two properly cold days in London

I wouldn't mind seeing some snow (I know it doesn't suit everyone, but I like it!)

Its too early to say yet Emma. I know that seems crazy when its a few days away.
Note that Im not saying a definite no though.

Thanks
Still time to pray for no snow, lol.

I’m pretty sure it will be here - all weather apps suggest so and we’ve had a weather warning from the Ivory towers.

The only saving grace is that the ground is soaking wet and it might not lie. Or it might just snow on top of black ice. Which did for my teeth about 11 years ago when I impersonated bambi. <cheery>

if it snows, there will be a photo.

Arcane oh no, your poor teeth.

I was really hoping for a mild one but then I always do!

Me too! I was working as a district nurse and I’ve never been so scared in my life. I ended up abandoning my car and clinging to fences and garden walls, anything to stay upright, just to get to patients.
I’d be perfect happy to never experience that again!

Keep your gadgets charged, candles handy for power cuts.

What are the models saying @OhYouBadBadKitten ? My apps aren’t showing anything currently, but they did yesterday.

Dh and I were looking at the wind and rain coming to Dublin straight across the Isle of Mann this morning and remembering when it was previously snow causing Dublin Airport chaos while Cork airport was open and functioning perfectly normally (that's usually the 1 with issues as it gets fog or storms being worse off the Atlantic).

Then he laughed as I am due to fly off on Monday week (12th) and he's speculating if I get to go "on my jolly" (it's a work thing - but Gran Canaria for 5 days 😅).

Basically similar to what I said at 6pm still.

I'm not seeing any reason to expect freezing rain thankfully.

I think it's good to note that while it looks very cold later this week and some will see snow, at present it doesn't look exceptional. Yes temperatures will be below average, but apart from in some hilly northern areas, not incredibly so. It's going to feel like a shock to the system after an abnormally warm year though. Of course we have the energy crisis compounding this.

Please do check that elderly and vulnerable neighbours do have heating on though please. Don't forget that many councils will be running warm spaces. There's no shame in using them.

warmspaces.org/spaces

Also here www.warmwelcome.uk which might be more useful.

A just for fun teaser for a weeks time. GFS shows this.
It will change.

I am not feeling in the pink about being in the pink…

OYBBK - thanks for your post upthread re trying to explain graphs. Honestly, please don’t feel you need to. It was me that first commented, but I wasn’t moaning - I was just stating how useless I am!

All of your weather threads are much appreciated as they are - absolutely no need to go to any extra effort.

Unless you can ensure no snow and also perfect weather throughout the seasons - that would obviously be awesome 🌷 ☀️ 🍁 ❄️

Met Office weather warning for Scotland here.

is that our snow shield showing there @OhYouBadBadKitten

I'll do my best Furries

Snow risk for this week is at first confined to northern hilly areas, then perhaps down the east coast. On Wednesday we may have a more organised band of snow, first in northern Scotland, then perhaps spreading south down to the south coast on Thursday, though perhas not aff3cti g the far SW at first. This shows in the GFS models, but not reflected in the UK Met Office outlook which keeps it predominantly dry for most, so take with a massive pinch of salt. Further outbreaks of snow showers through the weekend is possible.

Nevertheless even without snow it is going to get very cold this week.

beenrumbled yeah - your snow shield holds well in easterlies and northerlies!

beenrumbled - that is a fine example of your snow shield!
I'm at the possible 30cm in the SE!

Delurking to ask for no snow on Friday (I would love it but it's dm's birthday and she's booked a posh lunch!).
Absolutely love your threads thank you.