Winter Weather outlook

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

evidence-based guidance...multi-agency action is required to address wider determinants of health, such as socioeconomic inequalities, fuel poverty and housing energy efficiency...spectrum of action...

Seriously? This shit was written by Perfect Curve (see 2012 narrated by David Tennant)

THANK YOU, KITTEN!!!
Had completely forgotten about our tap!
(The internal screw is impossible to reach by us olds, but we have one of those polystyrene covers which has sufficed in
previous winters. Agile adult son is visiting this week though, I’ll insert him into the kitchen cupboard it’s behind the back panel of!)

I skipped straight to appendix 3 with the public health messages.

it contains helpful advice such as ‘make sure you keep warm.’ and ‘If you go outside dress appropriately.’

I’ve no idea where the external stopcock is for my sister’s outside tap. That could be interesting.

Good job you'd said, I'd been planning to dig the bikini out.

Thanks @OhYouBadBadKitten good to know apple weather lies about snow 😂

Shit I have no ide what you just said @OhYouBadBadKitten and no idea how to do it anyway 🙊

No idea where that is for mum and she won't know either
i normally wrap the outside tap and piping in a jacket, so to speak, hope that's enough.

Do you have an outside tap?

The latest GFS run is rolling out. It takes us a little less cold to start but keeps us in cold through at least next week. Various opportunities for snow showing. GFS can undercook low temperatures, so if your looking yourself and live in rural areas knock a couple degrees off night minima.

I guess it might be worth reviewing your power cut kits just in case. Though at least there should be a decent amount of sunshine for solar farms.

Model finished rolling out. It extends to the 21st with an impressive snow event. Sleep well!

Yes we do have an outside tap, came in very hand during the high heatwave in the summer. Will it freeze up?

Last time we had heavy snow our power glitched. I'll check the wood store and matches (have a good candle selection), and don't forget to charge power banks.

We're properly rural though. Last time it snowed properly the farmer over the way on The "big" Road (all relative" ended up being in the post for a week for our whole hamlet of the houses on a tractor. The post van wouldn't have made it up ours!

There's an 'impressive snow event' around the 16th December, OYBBK, in the overnight run

It's interesting that the GFS, once the cold sets in today, doesn't really have temperatures warming up at all over the next few weeks. Good for the possibility of snow but not for winter fuel bills

Does the impressie snow event mean country blanketed or just certain regions? @GloriaSmud

it’s last day ar school for DD and she is very excited for her christmas party that day!

I can't say whether it will freeze or not ListenLinda, it depends on your location, the location of the tap and whether it is vulnerable to freezing up. It is good practice to isolate outdoor taps in times of below 0c weather though. It can save a lot of expense and mess.

Gloria it does look rather impressive! A weather front bumps into the cold air in the south, bringing copious amounts of snow from the 15th to southern britain.

Overall, still little snow risk showing before then, so apart from northern Scotland and perhaps tracking further south as a weak front brings in some snow, it looks mostly dry. So we just need to keep an eye on those little features popping up.

I lust add, please don't start worrying about the 16th yet. (typo in last post!) It's a long way off in model terms and a lot will depend on the development of the low pressure that brings in the frontal snow. How that develops is vital to what happens next and 50 miles here or there in position will make a massive difference in fortunes.

I lust add? Typo central this morning!

@ListenLinda , if you dont know where to turn off your tap, then wrap it in bubble wrap.

@ListenLinda - it covers the Midlands/southern England but as OYBBK says, I wouldn't get too hung up on it definitely happening. Although it's just over a week away, it's waaaaay ahead into the future when it comes to weather forecasting!

I thought it would be good to share how the GEFS model shows potential evolution of temperatures up to 21st December.

This is for London. I've chosen that location as being one of the less prone to sub zero temperatures.

As Gloria says, right out to end of run, the majority of runs keep things cold to chilly, but you can see that some ensemble members warm things up considerably. You would expect that sort of spread of results anyway, but it does show that cold isn't necessarily entirely locked in for the foreseeable.

(my personal definition of chilly is around 5-8c! It's obviously not an official term)

Ice warnings out for Wednesday and Thursday - www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-12-08 wintry showers falling onto frozen ground.

Also a note that the North York moors may see a few cm of snow.

I'm in one of the yellow ice warning areas (NE coast of England) It was 1 degree this morning with icy rain. I'm getting the grit bin out of the garage later (I bought in bulk in January) I transfer some to a 5 litre lidded pet food type container and keep beside the front door. I tend to go out at about 6/7pm and grit my paths and drive. Alarm from now on is set 20 mins earlier to allow for checking and defrosting car.

Good plan Mistletoe

The 06z takes the snow storm next Friday through France after a brief dump over the SW. This would keep us on the cold side of the storm, but obviously also the dry side.

Grit bins. Mentioned on our local FB group our side road has a yellow bin which needs grit. OH does the elderly who live here the path outside front door to the bins for safety reasons. One poster screeching foaming at the mouth it's for roads and nothing else. There's nine houses here and mostly elderly. Keeping them safe isn't allowed in this mans world

fingers crossed for snow for those that want it, if it could be snowy whilst we are in the rapids at Centerparcs that would be awesome.