Winter Weather outlook

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

Thanks Kitten
I'll cross everything for no snow!

OYBBK Yup, that's the one. Thank you

7.5c outside the house now feels colder humidity 69 big fat high over us. Feels much colder

Un-lurking to say I really hope it snows. I'll be watching for updates. We're in rural County Durham so a good dump of snow leads to excellent sledging 🤣

ECM has wobbled big time and brings mild air racing in at the end of next week.

If you cant keep up - neither can I!

The fog has lifted and my laundry has dried overnight. It was out there a week 😳.

Well done Meglet! Hopefully as we go through to the end of the week there will be more opportunities for hanging things out.

I thought I'd add these links for those who live in or are heading out to the hills for walking this weekend. I meant to do it yesterday, but forgot.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/mountain
www.mwis.org.uk

Will take a look at the weather in a few minutes.

In brief as I'm way out of time this morning and dh is giving me hard stares. Getting colder, but snow etc unpredictable in the literal meaning at the moment.

Back later, sorry!

First snow warning of the season. www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-12-07
It affects northern Scotland on Wednesday.

<sigh>
Lucky Scotland

That's me. Wednesday night -1 feeling like -7. The heating WILL be on 😁

Not lucky Scotland.

I'm beginning to wonder whether this might actually be a fairly short lived cold spell after all. ECM yesterday showed a return to milder conditions, then reverted back to cold. Now GFS has done the same. When we get wobbles like this, my experience has been that usually mild wins even when it goes against the majority of the models.

We will see.

In the mean time, I've decided I don't like cold any more, I prefer feeling warmer.

The Met office are sticking with prolonged chilly/cold weather.

Look away from the photo if you live in the south and fancy snow or conversely hate snow and live in the north. Perhaps some house swaps could be arranged.

Ooo that looks interesting!

'House swops' 😂

DH is driving down to Derbyshire on Friday to see DD 🙄

The one and only day we have a snowflake. Maybe.

In the mean time, I've decided I don't like cold any more, I prefer feeling warmer.

Yes. I’ve decided my sister’s house is too cold and I preferred last week even though warm November is probably a bad sign for the planet.

I know apps aren’t reliable etc for predicting the snow and stuff but mine just don’t know what they are doing at the minute.
keeps flicking between sleet showers, snow, now heavy snow on Friday the 9th!, on a frequent basis.

Not looking forward to this predicted cold snap

Im glad I know it's going to be cold. Going to dig out my big big coat!

I'm not surprised apps are all over the place, when this is what the different models are showing.

This graph shows several different models forecasts of the temperature in London over the next couple of weeks. Each line is a different model, or shows the average of a particular set of ensemble runs. Notice how the lines spread apart showing the variety of solutions there might be.

This is why forecasters can't tell you what the weather definitely will be in a few days time. Some might try, but they are taking a best guess, weighing up probabilities (or going along with their own biases)

This week looks fairly forecastable, increasing cold as we go through the week and for those plagued by perpetual dark skies it looks to brighten up from mid week, with some hopefully good lengths of cold sunny spells. That change to clearer air also marks the change to colder weather.

Scattered hill snow showers from the east today over more northern ground. As we go through the week then snow showers may well pop up at short notice from the east, depending on the exact direction of the wind. These will be driven by instability caused by contrast between the warm sea and cold temperatures over land. Please don't berate forecasters for not giving much warning of these - think of it in the same way as thunderstorms forecasts, when there's a chance of a thunderstorm.
The warning from the met office for snow over northern Scotland remains.

Models don't have. handle on how low pressures develop from next weekend, so best to not look too far ahead at present.

Normally I'm the first to start cheering snow but I've got to drive ds1 to the airport for 4am on saturday morning and Thurs, Friday and Saturday are showing heavy snow at the moment. I don't fancy that- if his flight goes!

Checking in for the winter weather watch. Thank you @OhYouBadBadKitten. Hope you're doing OK.