Winter Weather outlook

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

Which weather app FourTea?

Freezing rain is awful - basically, if you are thinking from upper air to surface, snow falls through a warmer layer, melting, then falls through air that is below freezing temperature. Instead of freezing, it becomes supercooled - remaining as liquid. When it hits a surface that is below zero, it then freezes, encasing everything in ice. Its pretty rare in the UK. Think back to March 2018 when this happened in many places in the south. It is probably to me the most scary kind of weather - it causes so many accidents, and brings down powerlines in extremis. (not that I'm saying this would happen!)

Sleet in the UK is a mush of partially defrosted snow. In the US it describes when melted snow then falls through warm air and then through cold air but this time does freeze solid, forming ice pellets.

Hail forms under convective conditions and is formed within convective clouds.

Graupel is that fun polystyrene textured stuff that people sometimes think is hail, it is just like tiny little balls of polystyrene. Supercooled water forms a crust on little snow flakes giving a very thin fragile layer of ice.

I remember the freezing rain in Bath in 1995. I was staying in a house where there was a steep road and watched one morning as two men tried to navigate the slope. Unless outside, you couldn't see the ice and it looked so odd seeing them struggling to make progress, sliding about either on their bottoms or on all fours. It took them ages to reach the bottom of the slope.

I can't imagine trying to drive if there had been freezing rain.

Oh man 😬

It's just the Google weather app. I'm in Teesside.

I wouldn't worry about it this far out! FourTea there's a lot of weather to come first.

I think those in the south do need to be prepared for a nose of warmer air associated with a low pressure and some rain next week :(

Jakers haven't seen this much snow for us since 2010

I wouldn't focus on predicted snow depths at this point, but wowzers at ECMWF. Tiny pool of deep cold with us midweek next week.
There's so many variations of possibilities over the next couple of weeks from chilly rain, to snow to dry cold. It's going to be quite the model watching ride.

My youngest had two sledges and a scooter sledge unused for a decade. I insisted that they move with us when we downsized. Now have five grandchildren so have hoped for snow for a few years now.

Hurrah! I love it when winter watch gets exciting!

Itching to see this again

That Met office video from yesterday was not wrong about all the fog. Morning fog, evening fog, night fog. Even middle of the day fog today.

I am useless and can never figure out some of these graphs! I don’t want any snow - I just want to know I can safely do a weekly food shop for a family member each week. Please - cold and crisp is fine, but no snow or ice 🤞🏻

Netweather's thoughts on this weekend and hints of something colder next week
The Metoffice are giving me a 'high' of 3C next Thursday <<woolly hats needed!

Next week looks messy, with hill snow from snow showers, perhaps some really horrid chilly rain showers in the south. Perhaps a little hill snow at times in the south. Then it looks to get colder and potentially snowier. This all does not look like a bog standard dry cold at the moment.

It's really going to test our power grid I think, but the wind should at least start to pick up next week, so we will be getting some wind power. At the moment renewables are mostly sleeping - no wind and little to nothing in the way of sun in many places.

As for how long the cold spell will last? GFS keeps the break down from the south mid month. The ensembles do not agree.

All such jolly lovely news for someone crossing the pennines twice before Christmas. I am going to FREEZE in Yorkshire, I'm not used to the north east's version of cold anymore.

<starts plotting more southerly traverse of the country>

Very confusing weather reports for London next week
some say about 9 in the day with lots of rain
others say 3 with snow. Hard to plan!

Graphs mean nowt to me as well.

I always hate snow and there's bus strikes too.

@OhYouBadBadKitten is it a mini "beast from the north east", or just that old thing called Winter giving us a good hard prod and reminding us to buy extra candles and tins of soup.
@lostinwales cross at the A500/Stoke/Crewe junction then go up?

@OhYouBadBadKitten What was the website you were using during the too hot weather? a French one.
I've had to buy a new laptop as the old one exploded literally, the screen snapped so I've lost the link.
TIA.
⛄

@fancyacuppatea Top tip thanks, I'll have a look.

@lostinwales if you do use the A500 there's a massive 24hr Asda at Wolstanton to stop at for fuel/food - I think there's a Starbucks drive thru there as well.

Just had Christmas wish list from son in Yorkshire to all the family.

Thermal base layers
Long socks,
Beanie
Cocoa making kit

🤣🤣🤣

I remember freezing rain when I was pregnant about 10 years ago. Left the house to go to work, stood by the front of the car on the sloping drive and then just gently slid on my feet all the way down to the back. Went back in the house and received a phone call saying to stay home! Couldn't see any ice, but everywhere was like a skating rink.

Meteociel?

Thats because theres a low pressure that will develop to the south and models arent getting a handle on how deep it will develop or where it will wnd up. There are a lot of potential solutions.

Where we are at this evening:
Chilly this weekend, with the wind making the windchill feel really cold. Perhaps some isolated snow showers over northern and Welsh hilly ground (especially in north Wales, do take good care if planning hikes this weekend)

There could be more widespread snow later in the week, but the whole week looks messy in terms of interfering low pressures (or not!) and I think there will be a lot of nowcasting happening.

For the second week, it's still uncertain as to how long the cold will hold on for and how much it will deepen. There are some dramatic looking charts, but these need to be tempered with the the milder charts.

At the moment this does not look like an exceptional spell. But it's certainly a change.

I hear what people are saying about struggling to read graphs and charts. Some of them are rather technical. When I have time, I'll try to put in more explanation where I can when I post them. I can't promise to always do that, like everyone at this time of year, it's busy!