Winter Weather outlook

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

Which parts?

Always hard to tell at this point colouring hence the vagueness! Showers, especially ones that turn wintry are hard to forecast with any accuracy so far out.
I'd estimate at the moment, over hilly tops north of the midlands. It looks marginal anywhere, but too warm in the south over the Downs for example.

GFS has come more in line with the ECMWF for the latest run. It tends to keep southern coastal counties generally slightly warmer, but it looks colder than it did.with temperatures sliding down next week and widespread sub zero temperatures by night where skies clear.

Worth noting that temperature over the sea remains warm, so I wonder if there there will be potential for some instability and pop up showers if any breezes pick up. Its also worth noting that France looks very cold on this run, especially inland so their energy needs will be great.

The GEFS ensembles support this getting colder scenario.

There are hints on GFS of warmer air returning mid month, but its far too early to say whether this is likely or not.

This is all still the older version of GFS. I understand that the next model run may be the upgraded version.

Passo tonale no snow on Monday, today wow

It is cold today. And just had a glance at both my apps, both showing very cold temperatures next week.

Possible wintry stuff this Sunday @OhYouBadBadKitten ?

Fascinating to see that GFS lies way, way out of range of the ensembles from around the 13th. It brings back in warm air rapidly.

Met Office 10 day outlook

If that link didn't work, try this one.

Amazing link, thank you Kitten
The weather here is really interesting isn't it?

Possible snow for us in the Pennines next week maybe..

Nooooooooooo😭😭😭😭I’m in Sheffield. It’s ALWAYS bloody 10 ft deep here😭

It is really interesting!

Congratulations on having the best username I’ve seen in a long time!

Doesn’t stop the bloody snow though!

No. No. No. Absolutely no snow until after Xmas please.

Think it will be flurries rather than 10 feet. The air is so dry

Light snow showers over the weekend for the hills near me (over 300m above sea level though).

Good morning all! Happy First Day of Winter!

A chilly first week of December coming up. Snow showers over higher hills on Sunday perhaps including southern hills, but I think marginal. The temperatures not looking very cold, generally between 0 and 7c, though colder of course in rural areas, where skies clear at night.

Most models show the easterly swinging into a north easterly/northerly after the second week of December. If this continues to be the case, that's when things will potentially become more interesting. It would be cold and the likelihood of snow showers would increase.

Pressed send too soon! Likelihood of snow would increase, especially in eastern counties.

Models disagree as to how long this cold would last. GFS keeps it going to 16 days when the model stops, ECM cuts it off earlier, in a reversal of cold fortunes.

Thank you, OYBBK 😊🎅🏼

Ooooh. Things are hotting up.

Or rather they are not - and that's exciting

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow 😂😂😂

Nah, you'll be fine, it's nice and warm in Sheffield, just send that white stuff up to us ❄️☃️❄️

It feels a bit mean in a way providing regular teasing updates.
If you like cold and possibly snow, then the latest GFS run is for you. The 06Z reinforces and strengthens the idea of north easterlies, with a really strong Greenland high.

Here's just one snap shot showing cold air being bought down (advected is the met term), indicated by the red arrow.

The temperatures are not surface temperatures, but those higher up in the atmosphere - they are used to indicate where cold/warm air masses lie. Generally we need around -5°c- -6°c 850hPa temperatures to allow snow. There are other factors of course, this is just one parameter that needs to be in place.

Woo hoo!

Ooooh, it's coming @OhYouBadBadKitten I can feel it!

We have freezing rain down for the 10th on the weather app? Is that just sleet?