Winter Weather outlook

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

TWO has just tweeted this GEFS chart about an hour ago. It seems to point to a much colder temperatures.

I know it’s exciting to think about snow & unusually cold weather, but I’m extremely concerned due to the CoL crisis & heating costs. This may be the worst time for extreme (for the UK) cold this winter.

Bloody hell it’s cold down here this morning. Brrr.

First heavy frost here in Fife this morning. The fog that was locally forecast never materialised.

BumblePuppy it does look very strongly negative and invevitably people are drawing comparisons with 2010 as a result. The difference is that the temperature was much colder. We don't have that deep pool of cold to tap into. But if I were to throw caution to the wind, I'd say that this is our best chance of a seasonal first half of winter that we've had really since then.

I keep tempering my thoughts with what the Met Office are saying and that is that below average temperatures are expected, but that temperatures may average out to close to normal over all by the end of December. That implies to me that some milder spells may balance out the colder temperatures.

My actual fear is that we end up with a very still and murky weather scenario, with cold temperatures, little sun and no wind. Let's hope that my pessimism is evaporated by cold clear air.

Im not sure if I've shared snow rows before from TWO. I've linked to the Manchester snow rows because I know they feel neglected up there (though they did much much better than me last winter!)

www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/gefs-tables.aspx?run=00&fv=csnowsfc&loc=manchester&lat=53.5&lon=-2.5&p=&cty=

These are another way of viewing the GEFS data. Each of the 30 model runs are flagged with a 0 no snow or a 1 for snow. The more 1s for any particular day then the more likely that particular model is forecasting snow.
Remember there is more than one model though. Each model has its own strengths and biases. But for Saturday 4th for example 5/30 of the ensemble members shows snow at 6pm.

BumblePuppy I agree with your concerns about the COL. An additional issue is that the colder northern Europe mainland is, the less energy they will have available to trade with us. France are still struggling with their nuclear issue and power available from their reactors is down 30%. It's a right bugger.

I working outdoors over next 5 weeks (Christmas market) should I invest in some serious thermals??!!

colouring, I'd say the short answer is 'definitely!'

Yes you're prob right!!! I'm in a little chalet, but even so! Layers...

I would having done years of charity stuff in Pop ups, marquees and huts. Don't forget your feet either. The cold coming up from the ground is awful

Absolutely, layers and lots of them! And waterproofs if you've got them, they'll keep the draughts out.

Definitely Colouring I would absolutely invest in some. Most important layers are: base layer - something that will wick away sweat if you get too hot during the day, so that when it cools down as it gets dark you aren't left in a cold pool of damp clothing, and a wind proof layer. As Tricyrtis says, waterproofs can be great for this.

If you can find an affordable way to buy these and don't mind disposable. www.amazon.co.uk/Little-Hotties-Pocket-Warmers-Winter/dp/B01N9199RW/ these are great for popping in between fingerless gloves and thick mittens. I keep my mittens in my pocket with them tucked in, when I'm not wearing them.

With roomy boots, you can add something like a layer of foam between the insole and the bottom of the boots for an extra layer of insulation between you and the ground. I'd experiment with something cheap though!

When I take my gloves off at lunchtime at work, I stuff them under my trouser waistband next to my belly. There's a surprising amount of heat comes off your belly. Failing that, sit on them as your bum gives off heat too.

Genuine fleece insoles are fabulous for boots - quite inexpensive as things go, too. Also added a pair to my slippers :)

You can also get neoprene boot liners for wellies

Thanks so much for the suggestions! I'm going to go for mid calf leather boots that have a v chunky sole and i can wear wooly hiking socks in... layers, I've a fleece neck warmer thing, scarf, hat... 🤞🤞

Arg my central heating packs in with prolonged very cold weather as the outflow pipe freezes up. Did it in feb 2021 and I don't fancy a repeat !! Boiler is in the loft with the pipe exiting just below the roof and I didn't realise this would happen! Needs consistent well below freezing temps for it to happen so if we could just stick to 0
Degrees lease winter gods!

If you can get to the pipe just add some pipe lagging/insulation and that should help. Really cheap from a hardware store and takes minutes to fit

ECMWF is much more determined to send cold air our way than GFS in this evenings runs. I'm not sure which will win.

Its worth noting that GFS will be running an upgraded version from tomorrow.
www.newscaststudio.com/2022/06/30/noaa-dogwood-cactus-gfs-model-preview/

The upgraded version has been running alongside the current version. It has been modelling things quite differently, so it's going to be interesting to see how accurate it will be.

More info here for the technically minded. www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn22-104_gfs.v16.3.0_aaa.pdf

@FatAgainItsLettuceTime thank you that's the problem I have, it comes out just under the roof. Next time I have a handyman over I might ask about it though

This morning both ECM and GFS bring in a low pressure around the 7th that warms things up from the south. ECM shows this as a temporary blip in temperatures before introducing cold air, GFS wibbles around before bringing the Atlantic back in at around the 15th Dec.

There is the potential for a little wintry stuff still on Sunday across parts of the country.

Wintry stuff ❄️❄️ sounds good

Doesn’t 😞