We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

I'm watching sky news in absolute horror watching peoples homes burn down in Greater London from a wild fire that has spread.

I honestly don't know. It's looking very very dry for many into the forecastable future. We have models showing heat returning perhaps from this weekend, but not to this extreme.

London Fire Brigade have declared. major incident to 'a huge surge in the number of fires across the capital' including that awful fire near Dartford.

The models are worrying wet Wales not enough rain and warmer again next week

Just seen this on the news - how absolutely awful for all involved.

I live right next to a common, my garden backs onto it . A wildfire is not something I'd ever considered as a risk before.

Horrific fires in London. Those poor people. All these idiots claiming the media were scaremongering and 76 was worse. It’s nuts today. DCs school had planned to carry on as normal (in amber region) ended up sending all the kids home early today.

it’s much drier than we normally get with heat in the uk, makes it a bit more bearable but obviously not great for fire risk.

Record has gone in Lincolnshire too and I'm seeing so many reports of wildfires breaking out now. The strong winds are just fanning everything.

Please let us get rain with the storms. Please.

A main reason why it's worse than 1976 is that temperatures are above normal body temperature, and that is when things can start to go very wrong very quickly.

me too! my house backs onto fields, which if they went up would quickly put my cul decsac at risk. Never considered the risk of wildfires before! Scary.

What are the heat predictions please

For next week

Can I come to forecasts for beyond today after today please. I'll give a good round up tomorrow..

Of course.

Let's get today over with

It is a horrifying day.

Watching Sky News pictures from Wennington and following the news across the country - dozens of fires, hundreds of cases of heatsroke, I'm struggling not to feel pretty angry with the "It's just summer/ what about 1976". Those poor people who have lost their homes, I can't imagine how awful that is. And f*cking Johnson has just cleared off.

colouringindoors

Totally with you on that. The ignorance is astounding

@colouringindoors the 76 heatwave had highs of 35 apparently, which was v different.

Even in hot Mediterranean countries, people leave cities for cooler places when the temps hit the high 30s and 40C there.

As to people saying we were more laid back about heatwaves in the 90s...well, yes. But a heatwave then was 10° cooler than this one and the high temps didn't last nearly so long.

Also the 10 hottest days in the last century have been since 2002 so in 1976 we were barely aware of i my first climate change books on my bookshelf were bought in the 1980's

This is awful. I wish those that banged on about scaremongering we’re right.
At least we wouldn’t have these terrible fires.

At least we wouldn’t have these terrible fires.

How did they start do you know?

@MarshaBradyo with so many fires, I expect there will be multiple sources of ignition and little time to investigate them at present.

The BBC reported two hours ago that the London Fire Brigade were attending 10 separate fires as a result of grass fires at the time.

True

As an Aussie I get the call for fire bans and think it should be part of our repertoire - I know the fire brigade do but maybe higher awareness and consequences

I’m not sure how many people are having bbqs it’s so blinking hot already outside

There have been wildfires on the moors near me before (northern england). They are truly scary to witness, even in a less built up area like this one.