Storm Eunice

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

This thread covers the expected severe weather on Friday - named Storm Eunice by the met office. At the moment there is great uncertainty, so the met office have put out a very wide yellow weather warning. It looks likely that some regions within the warning area will see gusts of 60-70mph inland, with a small chances of inland gusts above 80mph. The storm also carries the potential for some blizzards, but again there is currently considerable uncertainty.

www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-02-18

A separate thread exists for Storm Dudley which is expected Wednesday/Thursday.
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/weather/4481213-Storm-Dudley

@afengshui

Will it be safe for children to go to school?

the most dangerous is the journey to/from school. play it by ear, school might decide to close. or close early.

Here is the latest run down.

Arpege 00z: Not looking quite so bad for the Bristol area. 70-80mph widespread gusts across the south. Higher over Kent and around the Northampton running into Cambridgeshire, Suffolk and Essex area for a brief time, with gusts closer to 90mph

UKV 03Z Again not so bad for the south Wales, north Devon and Bristol area. Gusts 70-85 here. Away from the far SW gusts 60-80mph including into London. A little higher along the south east coast and through the southern half of East Anglia.

ICON 00z Shows the peak winds a little further south and hence again less severe through the Bristol region than showed yesterday. Widespread gusts of 60-80mph across the south and south east and later into East Anglia.

UK Met 00Z Gusts 70-90mph along the north devon and south west coast. Widespread gusts of 70-85mph across the south, including London. 80-90 through Kent. Interestingly it then brings widespread gusts for a time of 70-80mph across northern England too.

Arome - I need to mention this model. It is a high res model and seems to develop a very very intense swathe of winds through Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire and through Suffolk. I'm unsure whether it is attempting to model a potential sting jet. The met office have a good explanation of these. www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/wind/sting-jet

Overall, with this set of model runs, some of the extreme values have been removed thankfully, with the exception of Arome. A couple of the other models hint at the suggestion of a sting jet and we need to watch this closely.

Having read a few messages while I was typing that out. Once again, please don't pay too much store on weather apps. They represent the output from one run of one model. As you can see, there are a range of solutions available. Please keep an eye on the met office website. Gusts over 70mph can cause significant disruption and anything approaching 80mph is frankly dangerous.

The wind speeds for my area have now gone down on both Met Office and BBC now - they were 60s up to 70, now 40s and 50s. Its still an Amber warning though.

Warnings get updated around 11am-12pm.

Oh hang on, I hadn't scrolled across enough 🤣 still well into the 60s in the middle of the day!

When is the next model update?

I wouldn't make a very good weather reporter!

Typically on holiday in Cornwall FFS 😳

See you've answered that in the time it took me to yell at ex....

(Ex lives near school: why is Ds coming to me after school? )

Hassel!

Blackeyed - they all run at different intervals. I'm going to have to get on with a bit of work soon but I'l be back properly late morning.

When I looked at the metoffice for my area this morning it was predicting gusts of 55-65mph on Friday. So that'll be fun 🙈

Trying to decide what time to make the call about traveling into the big city for hospital appointment.

I've just been watching the news. Someone's trampoline has blown out of their garden, onto a railway line and brought the trains to a halt.
Secure your trampolines!

Argh. Icon 06z rolling out. It is back to bringing in very severe winds across parts of southern Wales and the north and SW coasts with gusts well in excess of 90mph. Gusts of 60-85 mph across the south, including into London and across East Anglia. It brings some extreme winds down through the spine of northern England too as a hook wraps round. This feature seems to be a developing aspect. This may not just be a southern wind storm. (I know I'm ignoring snow. Sorry)

Thanks for the update. Are any parts of the UK likely to be less impacted?.

Netweather's thoughts on Eunice.

Maireas - I'd say Northumberland/Lancashire and Scotland won't be so affected with this one.

(I'm sort of a 'deputy' on the weather section - who should be doing the deputy job more often but sometimes doesn't have the time!)

I'm seeing talk of a sting jet on netweather ( the hook feature that @OhYouBadBadKitten is talking about? ).

Just waiting for met office update now. NOT travelling tomorrow on our 15 mile each way school run now. Dc can sign into teams and do it that way ( if the electric lasts!) .

Well after bbc dropping our forecast to 64mph, it’s back up to 85mph for tomorrow. Going to be a ferocious day I think.

@GloriaSmud

Maireas - I'd say Northumberland/Lancashire and Scotland won't be so affected with this one.

(I'm sort of a 'deputy' on the weather section - who should be doing the deputy job more often but sometimes doesn't have the time!)

Ah, ok, thank you. Useful to know about Lancashire - any information about the Sheffield area?

Oh bumholes. BBC is predicting up to 73mph gusts in my part of Cornwall tomorrow- at 8.00- 9.00am. DS1 takes the coach through narrow, tree lined lanes to school in one direction, and I drive DS2 to school through narrow, tree lined lanes in the other 😬

@Doghairismyglitter

Well after bbc dropping our forecast to 64mph, it’s back up to 85mph for tomorrow. Going to be a ferocious day I think.

We'd gone down to 60s, now 75. I might just hide under a duvet with my cats.

Coastal Wales here. Think I had better cancel an appointment I have tomorrow, and I feel that dc would be better off not going to school. The drive is along a tree lined road.
Tethering down various things today and worrying about my large trees, luckily the tree surgeon has just taken down a couple of very diseased large trees and pollarded some others that looked worrying.

@GloriaSmud if you're doing individual requests can I ask for one for Crewe?
and yes, people of Cheshire, I know it's a shit-hole, but it wasn't my choice