Badkittens and Gloria Will it snow at Christmas Thread

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Just realised it's the 1st December!

It's a just for fun thread at this point as it's going to be highly inaccurate until we get much closer to the date.

Just a reminder that I'm only an amateur. I do this as a hobby. Please don't rely on my forecasts for decisions that matter - use the met office for those.

Also, I'm on my phone today without access to weather models, so it's a bit of a teaser start to the thread

Fingers crossed Biddy!

Interesting Outlook from the metoffice...

UK Outlook for Wednesday 19 Dec 2018 to Friday 28 Dec 2018:
Cloud and rain should clear east early on Wednesday with sunshine and blustery showers following. The showers most frequent in the northwest and west where there is the risk of hail and thunder with some hill snow in the north. Some patchy fog may be slow to clear on Thursday with fewer showers and lighter winds. It is then likely to remain mostly unsettled through the rest of the period with spells of rain and strong winds. The heaviest rain will be in the west with eastern parts staying generally drier. With the unsettled weather temperatures are likely to be around or a little above average. However, there is a small chance of a colder and shower spell developing during Christmas week.

UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Dec 2018 to Saturday 12 Jan 2019:
The start of this period is most likely to be unsettled with the continuation of wet and windy weather pushing in from the west. Through the first half of January there is an increasing likelihood for it to turn colder bringing the increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost and fog. Some snow is also likely with temperatures expected to fall below normal. However, there is uncertainty in the timing of this change to turn colder, and it could come before the end of December.

It's interesting isn't it that their models seem to still be keen on pushing out the cold further than the models we are looking at.

[insert several expletives]

7, 847 green bottles hanging on the wall...

it'll snow or rain or be really windy on the 31st, especially round here in the morning, as we have a hospital appointment.

Thanks for the clear up! it's hard to stack so many bottles safely.

bugger of a day to have a hospital appt.

Apparently it's going to sleet here in Fulham at 10am today according to Google Weather. Sleet's just messy.

GFS model says:

Weekend before Christmas

Pretty atlantic driven, mild, windy maybe wet.

Christmas Eve

temps in mid to high single digits. Mostly dry, no snow

Christmas Day
dry and cold.

Boxing day

just boring really.

The EMCWF keeps the atlantic going, no signs of wintry weather to be had from it. Looking at GFS ensembles, none of them are going for actual cold now.

/hangs up santa hat.

...and some snow here in Scotland but where I am, not that much. It was meant to be heavy snow. Its a little scattering of snow. Tbh, I am a bit relieved as I have to venture out In it!

you might be better off on the freezing rain thread neveradullmoment.

Yes, the less said about the last few model runs the better.

It's ridiculously windy here must be the spinach.

Any idea on Boxing Day? It's my 50th and we are hoping to go to Whipsnade Zoo which is on top of a hill so I know it may be windy but hoping that it won't snow. That's the problem of having a birthday on Boxing Day - unless you want to go shopping not a lot is open for a day out.

At the moment gfs says dry and coldish. Keep prodding me :)

I can cope with dry and coldish. Thank you

GFS model says:

Next weekend

Pretty atlantic driven, mild, potentially very wind in Scotland. Possibly pretty wet in central and northern areas too, especially on Sunday. I'll keep an eye...

Christmas Eve

temps in mid digits. Perhaps wet in the west.

Christmas Day

dry and coldest in the south, wet (snow over high ground?) and windy in Scotland.

Boxing day

A little milder, still very unsettled in Scotland.

NYE
Potentially very wet.

The EMCWF model keeps things mild too.

I'm not around tomorrow at all. If I get a chance tonight I'll do a quick update, but if not, I'll see you all back here on Tuesday.

Latest update from the metoffice for the Christmas period ~ still going for cold after the New Year but there's a chance colder conditions might occur before then....

UK Outlook for Friday 21 Dec 2018 to Sunday 30 Dec 2018:
Friday starts dry for most with patchy frost and fog, but cloud and rain already in the southwest will spread northeastwards through the day. Clearer, windy and showery conditions follow from the southwest later, these lasting into Saturday. Unsettled weather is likely to continue into the Christmas period, with further spells of rain possibly preceded by hill snow, and with strong winds at times. However during the last week of December there is a chance that the weather pattern will become slow-moving, with some more settled drier conditions developing, and with any rain increasingly confined to the north and west. Temperatures are likely to fluctuate around average, but turning colder should more settled conditions develop.

UK Outlook for Monday 31 Dec 2018 to Monday 14 Jan 2019:
Going into the New Year there is an increasing likelihood of the weather pattern becoming slow-moving or even "blocked", with Atlantic frontal systems held at bay by slow-moving areas of high pressure. This may result in more generally settled and cold weather conditions becoming established. This brings and increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost, and fog or freezing fog which may be slow to clear. When any frontal systems do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow. Temperatures are likely to be below normal, and often cold.

So as OYBBK's away for a day or two, this is my attempt at a Christmas forecast

This weekend ~ a north/south split. Chilly for the north/Scotland could see some hill snow. Mild in the south with showers at times.

Christmas Eve ~ any showers clear during the day, becoming chilly across the whole country.

Christmas Day ~ dry and cold (so 'tis looking seasonal rather than snowy)

Boxing Day ~ the same as Christmas Day

NYE ~ could be wet/perhaps wintriness over hills for Scotland as we head towards midnight, possibly with strong winds as well. Rest of the country dry and cold.

ECM ~ similar to GFS

Latest Outlook from the metoffice...

UK Outlook for Friday 21 Dec 2018 to Sunday 30 Dec 2018:
Friday starts dry for most with patchy frost and fog, but cloud and rain already in the southwest will spread northeastwards through the day. Clearer, windy and showery conditions follow from the southwest later, these lasting into Saturday. Unsettled weather is likely to continue into the Christmas period, with further spells of rain possibly preceded by hill snow, and with strong winds at times. However during the last week of December there is a chance that the weather pattern will become slow-moving, with some more settled drier conditions developing, and with any rain increasingly confined to the north and west. Temperatures are likely to fluctuate around average, but turning colder should more settled conditions develop.

UK Outlook for Monday 31 Dec 2018 to Monday 14 Jan 2019:
Going into the New Year there is an increasing likelihood of the weather pattern becoming slow-moving or even "blocked", with Atlantic frontal systems held at bay by slow-moving areas of high pressure. This may result in more generally settled and cold weather conditions becoming established. This brings and increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost, and fog or freezing fog which may be slow to clear. When any frontal systems do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow. Temperatures are likely to be below normal, and often cold.

Another interesting metoffice Outlook, really from Christmas onwards....

UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Dec 2018 to Monday 31 Dec 2018:
Saturday looks like being mild with sunshine and showers. It is likely to be breezy in the south. Winds will probably be stronger generally on Sunday with gales around exposed coasts and hills. Rain may be persistent in the south though probably still showery in the north. The UK is likely to stay rather wet and windy for those last minute shopping trips on Christmas Eve. However, there are signs that Christmas Day itself may be drier, brighter, colder and less windy, though wind and some showers remain quite likely in the south. During the last week of December dry cold bright weather is more likely, with rain increasingly confined to the north and west.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 15 Jan 2019:
In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly. In the north, dry, cold and mostly calm weather is more likely, with frost and fog on many nights and mornings. Wintry showers are quite likely near eastern coasts. Although weather systems may be rather slow-moving and stay out in the Atlantic, where they do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow at times. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather are still possible.

thanks Gloria

you seem to have a surfeit of bottles in here.. just stocking up the supplies over at the G&C... need to fill up the barrels and the tanker has been delayed...

100 green bottles...

Wow, G&C must be particularly busy for the seasonal meltdowns. All ok?

Cold and dry (in other words, seasonal) sounds good.

Was it 100 bottles taken for honking?

7,500 bottles - for rounding purposes...

(I may have used a couple of bottles to dose my cold...)

Apologies for the lateness ~ just been waiting for the latest GFS run to finish. So....

This weekend ~ showery for most of the country. Perhaps snow over the Scottish mountains.

Christmas Eve ~ The odd shower but mostly dry

Christmas Day ~ Dry

Temperatures for the 3 days ~ 2-5C for Scotland/northern England and 11-13C for the rest of the country

Boxing Day ~ chilly and mostly dry. Temperatures range from 3-5 (Scotland) 7-9C midlands/south.

NYE ~ dry. Temperatures 6/7C

Oh and 7,480 GBs

I guess it can be said that all is not lost when it comes to cold, if you look at the metoffices latest Outlook, especially looking towards the New Year...

UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Dec 2018 to Monday 31 Dec 2018:
Saturday looks like being mild with sunshine and showers. It is likely to be breezy in the south. Winds will probably be stronger generally on Sunday with gales around exposed coasts and hills. Rain may be persistent in the south though probably still showery in the north. The UK is likely to stay rather wet and windy for those last minute shopping trips on Christmas Eve. However, there are signs that Christmas Day itself may be drier, brighter, colder and less windy, though wind and some showers remain quite likely in the south. During the last week of December dry cold bright weather is more likely, with rain increasingly confined to the north and west.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 15 Jan 2019:
In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly. In the north, dry, cold and mostly calm weather is more likely, with frost and fog on many nights and mornings. Wintry showers are quite likely near eastern coasts. Although weather systems may be rather slow-moving and stay out in the Atlantic, where they do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow at times. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather are still possible.