Badkittens and Gloria Will it snow at Christmas Thread

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Just realised it's the 1st December!

It's a just for fun thread at this point as it's going to be highly inaccurate until we get much closer to the date.

Just a reminder that I'm only an amateur. I do this as a hobby. Please don't rely on my forecasts for decisions that matter - use the met office for those.

Also, I'm on my phone today without access to weather models, so it's a bit of a teaser start to the thread

Possible SSW ( Sudden Stratospheric Warming) around Christmas Eve/Day?

ooo maybe!

In the mean time there's a reason why I only do the Christmas forecast once a day. Latest model run has southerlies

Heatwave then!

9984 etc, etc

9983 green bottles of spring water then for the heatwave.

9982 - shouts of joy!

Oh here you are!!

morning :). We see the GFS model setting up a nice high pressure to our west over the Christmas period, blocking off the atlantic and feeding in Northerly or NEly winds. Will this be the Christmas where it doesn't see a sudden warm up just as Christmas starts?

Weekend before Christmas

Mild and damp

Christmas Eve

Cooling down - perhaps some snow for the NE, milder in the south.

Christmas Day

potential for snow along the east coast, perhaps penetrating inland and cold everywhere.

Boxing day

Continuing cold with a further risk of snow in the east.

Apart from my usual caveats I'm a bit concerned with this forecast that once again the operational run is one of the coldest and potentially snowiest models. So there isn't much confidence over the above forecast. The charts are lovely though!!!

I'm going to discuss the coming weeks snow in the snow forecast thread and try to keep this one for Christmas only. I expect that will go wrong

snow watch thread about upcoming weather

9981 frozen bottles of milk....

you know what, I'm getting really excited at the potential and where is everyone to bounce with us? so I'm just going to keep bouncing and maybe knock a few bottles off the wall for attention

shoves bottle off wall and admires the mess 9980 bottles

/walks off whistling

'Tis a frosty one here (Leicester) this morning ~ temperature down to 1C (have added a frosty sunrise-type picture from my travels this morning.)

Oh forgot, 9979 Green Bottles

nice photo!

nice photo!

oops! not sure how I got it to post before I was ready. I agree about GFS, it does seem to be quite good at picking up snow early - though often it seems to then push back the date of it happening. The 00Z is showing some consistency even though the other models swing to mild instead.

Sorry about the mess

Do you realise that if we are going to end up with no bottles by Chistmas we need to shove an average of 713 bottles off the wall each day?

9976

Yes, actually it does seem to push dates back, I've noticed that. It'll be interesting to see what it does over the next few days.

We could go Greek and start smashing plates if we run out of bottles. I fear Christmas dinner could be a messy affair with all this bottle and plate smashing going on though

If they're full of champagne and we end up swinging from chandeliers, I'm happy to help though!!

9975...just to make a dent in the collection

9974 green bottles sitting on the wall, I think champagne comes in green bottles.

9973 green bottles hanging on the wall.. mmm

9972 gween bottlesh walling on the hang....

Just realised I missed out bottle number 9977 this morning!
9971 bottles of a certain colour etc etc

Haven't posted a Metoffice Outlook for a few days ~ 'tis interesting that they're going for the 'something colder is coming our way towards the New Year' at the moment. A few posters on some weather message boards are thinking along the same lines.

UK Outlook for Sunday 16 Dec 2018 to Tuesday 25 Dec 2018:
The middle of the month is likely to remain changeable with a mix of blustery showers and longer spells of rain, and a risk of severe gales at times. Temperatures however will return to near normal for the time of year, with the south and west becoming rather mild at times, although some colder air may move into the north at times to give the risk of some hill snow. Heading into the Christmas week and the most likely scenario is for a continuation of the changeable theme, with some further spells of wind and rain, but interspersed by some brighter but showery weather. Temperatures on the whole look likely to remain around normal, although turning briefly mild in any wet and windy spells, but cooler in any drier interludes.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 26 Dec 2018 to Wednesday 9 Jan 2019:
The end of 2018 is likely to remain fairly changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, possibly wintry over higher ground. Temperatures look likely to be around normal for the time of year. However, as we head into the New Year, there is the chance of high pressure becoming established close to the UK. This would bring drier and colder weather, but also an increasing chance of some snow showers and nighttime frosts.

Interesting that they aren't going for the cold at Christmas.

Blackeyed!

Did I hear someone say snow for the NE?

Love your weather threads OYBBK and Gloria. Even my mother asks me for updates from your forecasts.

9970 bottles!

Thanks Dockray

bother. This model shows the high to our west being knocked over by a deep low. However, this time it is a warm outlier, with the majority of solutions being colder. However, realistically, few are cold enough for snow this time.

Weekend before Christmas

Mild and damp but cooling down

Christmas Eve

mild breezy and damp.

Christmas Day cool/cold and dry except in the NW of Scotland where a deep low grazes, bringing rain and wind.

Boxing day

Quite mild everywhere, wet in northern Scotland.

Ah well, its one model run. Try again tomorrow!