Badkittens and Gloria Will it snow at Christmas Thread

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Just realised it's the 1st December!

It's a just for fun thread at this point as it's going to be highly inaccurate until we get much closer to the date.

Just a reminder that I'm only an amateur. I do this as a hobby. Please don't rely on my forecasts for decisions that matter - use the met office for those.

Also, I'm on my phone today without access to weather models, so it's a bit of a teaser start to the thread

9969 green bottles,

surely one of them contains some paracetamol....

Christmas snow potential?! Woo hoo!
Please please please weather be snowy!

9968 Green Bottles
Oh dear, Blackeyed. Did we overdo the champagne testing last night?

Latest Outlook from the metoffice ~ going for unsettled (but possibility of cold) during Christmas week and still think it's going to be cold into the New Year.

UK Outlook for Monday 17 Dec 2018 to Wednesday 26 Dec 2018:
Through the middle of the month, a mix of blustery showers and longer spells of rain looks likely, with a risk of severe gales. Temperatures will be around normal for the time of year, although the south and west could become rather mild at times. However, a chance of some colder air in the north could give the risk of some hill snow. Heading into the Christmas week, it will probably stay unsettled, with further spells of wind and rain, but interspersed by some brighter and showery weather. Temperatures on the whole look likely to be a little milder than average. However, there is a small chance of colder temperatures, which could bring snow to hilltops in the north, and perhaps to low levels for a time in the northeast.

UK Outlook for Thursday 27 Dec 2018 to Thursday 10 Jan 2019:
The end of 2018 is likely to remain fairly changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, possibly wintry over higher ground. Temperatures look likely to be around normal for the time of year, although there is a small chance things could turn colder in late December. However, as we head into the New Year, there is an increased chance of high pressure becoming established close to the UK. This would bring drier and colder weather, but also an increasing chance of some snow showers and nighttime frosts.

Very briefly as heading out early this am.

Weekend before Christmas

coldish.

Christmas Eve

Cold, maybe some snow in the NE and East anglia.

Christmas Day
cold and dry for most, but snow along the east coast, penetrating across the SE and East Anglia!!

Boxing day

Snow fading out and a little warmer.

Model is once again one of the coldest members of the ensembles. Fascinating that keeps happening.

'Tis interesting that it's come back to that again over the Christmas period, OYBBK.
Netweather snow risk map for Christmas Day (once again, do not get excited (yet!))

its a tiny bit exciting!

No snow for Devon then? Not even teeny bit for east Devon?

Nothing showing yet, but the winter has only just started :)

Dont know about snow but its absolutely freezing here just near glasgow!

Meant to snow on Saturday here although it keeps changing.

It's also freezing here in London nevera.

Temp dropped from 10 degrees at 8am, to 5.5 degrees at 11.30am this morning in Dun Laoghaire, with a bitter easterly wind to go along with that (and lots of squally rain!).

Could that keep falling?

I doubt it - there are plenty of storm centres coming across the bottom of the US though, to keep tracking across the Atlantic after the current one (should be centred over UK about now) and the next one (should hit Ireland soon enough) have blown through....

It is cold!!! current snow watch thread which I think might get quite busy over the next couple of days :)

It is certainl cold here in east Devon, but that is more to do with the wind (not even v strong!) which is icey and biting. If you can find somewhere sheltered, it's almost mild still!

Weekend before Christmas

coldish, maybe some snow in Scotland.

Christmas Eve

Cold, messy mix of snow and rain showing across a fair bit of the UK.

Christmas Day
properly cold!!! and dry for most, but perhaps snow along the east coast. Not as rampantly snowy as yesterday's run was showing.

Boxing day

Snow fading out. Still cold.

Still a very wide spread of solutions showing on the ensembles, but this time the operational run isn't out on a limb compared to other model runs.

I'm just popping out, when I'm back in about an an hour I'll compare the GFS charts with ECMWF which now has Christmas eve in range.

It's interesting that the GFS is once again showing cold again ~ its run last night had it as being quite cold/snowy over Christmas.

A couple of interesting shots for you at 240 hours (Christmas eve)

Left is ECMWF, right is GFS. First picture is surface pressure, second is 850hpa temperatures (upper air temps where very approximately -5c and below is considered cold.

Though they show different detail, with ECMWF being a bit warmer and wind in a different direction, I don't think model consensus is too bad actually. It doesn't look mild anyway in my eyes and both show the potential (strongly emphasise potential not probable) for some wintry weather.

cropped them a bit to make it a tiny bit easier on small screens.

shall we say oh, errr, 8000 icy bottles left?

What's the icy bottles thing?

Philomensapie ~ It was a bit of Christmas silliness really. I started a 'sing-song' about 10 days ago (on the 3rd December) as nothing of a snowy nature was showing up at the start of what was supposed to be a 'will it snow at Christmas' thread! It started at '10,000 Green Bottles hanging on the wall' and it's come down by a few bottles every day but I think a few have been missed over the time as well!

We might have to stop our 'sing song' if this comes off.
Snow risk (not to be taken too literally) for Christmas Day (and another cold run from the GFS)

yeah we needed something to keep our spirits up when it looked like mild gloom.

Nice to see that the 06z run agrees with the 00z finally (give or take a bit)

whispers that looks like a risk to around us in Ireland too....squeee!!!!

We may be too close to the sea for it to happen, but we can see about a snowy walk in Wicklow later in the week!!!

Thanks Gloria