Badkittens and Gloria Will it snow at Christmas Thread

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Just realised it's the 1st December!

It's a just for fun thread at this point as it's going to be highly inaccurate until we get much closer to the date.

Just a reminder that I'm only an amateur. I do this as a hobby. Please don't rely on my forecasts for decisions that matter - use the met office for those.

Also, I'm on my phone today without access to weather models, so it's a bit of a teaser start to the thread

I shall slip in the metoffice Outlook for the weeks up 'til Christmas here (and it isn't sounding that festive at the moment!)

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Wednesday 5 Dec 2018 to Friday 14 Dec 2018:
Southeastern parts of the UK may start wet on Wednesday, but rain will clear, with most areas becoming dry and bright. This will lead to a cold night and a widespread frost to start Thursday, but many will begin bright before wet and windy weather arrives later. Thereafter, for the remainder of this period it is likely to be more unsettled with further spells of wet and windy weather, interspersed by drier, brighter and showery interludes. Rain will be heavy at times, particularly in western and southwestern areas. Gales are likely at times, and overall temperatures will probably average out on the mild side for most, with any colder spells confined to the north. Later in this period it may turn less unsettled with some longer drier interludes.

UK Outlook for Saturday 15 Dec 2018 to Saturday 29 Dec 2018:
As we head into the middle of December there are signs that it will turn unsettled again with more generally wet and windy weather affecting the UK. This will bring heavy rain and gales or severe gales, with a chance that it may even turn stormy at times. Overall, it is likely to be mild across much of the country with snow tending to be confined to hills in the north. However, in any drier interludes it will turn colder.

I don't mind a bit of snow but if I can't order some in advance to last from lunchtime on 24/12 to about dawn on 28/12 I'll settle for crisp, cold, dry and not sunny. There's something a bit unseasonal about present opening with the sun streaming in through the windows.

The santa shaker currently predicts a 15% chance of snow for me in The Midlands.

Thanks Gloria! It's very much appreciated!

GFS goes out to the 17th at the moment. No signs of blocking setting up and hence I'm not seeing much hope for a winter wonderland.

The GFS goes out to the 18th today. It's impossible to see a trend at the moment - Europe looks pretty warm still though apart from a brief interlude in about 10 days time, so I'm not holding my breath!

Netweather's (updated yesterday) Christmas forecast ~ sort of comes to the same conclusion OYBBK. 'Tis on a bit of a knife edge at the moment when it comes to Christmas!

The Metoffice Outlook covers Christmas/New Year ~ looks like we could get all types of weather at the moment.

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Friday 7 Dec 2018 to Sunday 16 Dec 2018:
Friday is set to be wet and very windy in the north with severe gales on coasts and hills. The rest of the UK is likely to have a windy day too, though with less disruptive winds and lower rainfall totals. The weekend is likely to be unsettled too, alternating between sunshine and showers. By the end of the weekend, thicker cloud and rain are likely to move from west to east. The heaviest rain may well be across the north and west. The weather will tend to turn drier and colder during the following week with lighter winds. Lower temperatures and longer dry spells will mean that night frost and fog become more likely.

UK Outlook for Monday 17 Dec 2018 to Monday 31 Dec 2018:
For the middle part of December there are signs that there will be more frequent periods of dry and colder weather, bringing a greater chance of overnight frost and fog. However, for the weeks immediately before and after Christmas, wetter and milder weather will become more likely, with the potential for some windy or even stormy spells, and above average temperatures. Any snow associated with these wet spells is likely to be confined to hills in the north.

To be totally and utterly honest, at the moment I have absolutely no clue This is a really pathetic start to the Christmas weather thread!

At the moment, I still think that blocking isn't going to get fully established and that we are going to end up with a wet and wild time BUT there is absolutely no science behind that, its pure instinct at the moment.

"10,000 green bottles hanging on the wall.
10,000 green bottles...."

9999 green bottles hanging on a wall.

I should have just named it a generic christmas weather thread really.

I will be so happy if it does not snow

Have to fly just before Christmas to spend it with DGC - I don't want any snow to ruin my first family Christmas for many ayear.

Let it rain, let it rain..............

🎶9998 green bottles hanging on the wall...

It's looking slightly more interesting this morning, it looks increasingly likely that there will be a cool down down next week, with some fairly cold day time temperatures. It looks like that might hang around for a little while. At the moment GFS then shows hints of it warming up, in the south at least in the few days before Christmas. It so often seems to do that doesn't it.

The model goes out to the 20th, so we are getting there.....

9997 green bottles hanging on a wall.

oi Magi! Stop it with the let it rain stuff

Latest Outlook from the metoffice is sort of along the same lines as the GFS.

UK Outlook for Sunday 9 Dec 2018 to Tuesday 18 Dec 2018:
Showers may affect the north and east on Sunday, whilst in the south and west there may be some more persistent rain for a time. Strong winds will also affect the northeast and southwest on Sunday. During the rest of this period some prolonged drier, settled but cold spells are likely, with lighter winds, especially early next week. Any wet and windy weather is more likely to be confined to the north and west. This will bring overnight frosts and perhaps fog, especially for the south and east, but also a chance of some snow in the north and west and possibly wintry showers in the east. Some unsettled milder spells are likely, more especially from late next week onwards.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 19 Dec 2018 to Wednesday 2 Jan 2019:
This period may start with some settled, drier and colder weather, with overnight frosts and fog. Whilst there is a lot of uncertainty through the rest of the month, as Christmas approaches we may see a more general trend towards unsettled conditions returning, with spells of wetter and milder weather affecting many parts of the UK, and with a risk of gales at times. Any snow associated with these wet spells is more likely to be confined to hills in the north. Temperatures whilst starting below normal or cold, are likely to recover to be above average at times, with fewer frosty nights.

9996 Green bottles hanging on the wall...

Before any possible cold next week, there's a wind weather warning for Friday, for Scotland/northern England.

Latest Outlook from the metoffice hints at colder weather coming next week...

UK Outlook for Sunday 9 Dec 2018 to Tuesday 18 Dec 2018:
Showers may affect the north and east on Sunday, whilst in the south and west there may be some more persistent rain for a time. Strong winds will also affect the northeast and southwest on Sunday. During the rest of this period some prolonged drier, settled but cold spells are likely, with lighter winds, especially early next week. Any wet and windy weather is more likely to be confined to the north and west. This will bring overnight frosts and perhaps fog, especially for the south and east, but also a chance of some snow in the north and west and possibly wintry showers in the east. Some unsettled milder spells are likely, more especially from late next week onwards.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 19 Dec 2018 to Wednesday 2 Jan 2019:
This period may start with some settled, drier and colder weather, with overnight frosts and fog. Whilst there is a lot of uncertainty through the rest of the month, as Christmas approaches we may see a more general trend towards unsettled conditions returning, with spells of wetter and milder weather affecting many parts of the UK, and with a risk of gales at times. Any snow associated with these wet spells is more likely to be confined to hills in the north. Temperatures whilst starting below normal or cold, are likely to recover to be above average at times, with fewer frosty nights.

After the drought of the summer, let’s kind all those bottles to fill with any rain that does fall!! 😂🌧☔️ (As it’s linda wet and miserable in Dublin, yet again...)

9995 green bottles hanging on the wall...

GFS is really keen on the idea of warming stuff up just before Christmas. The model which goes out to the 21st shows a wet warm mobile affair for the Friday before Christmas.

As long as it's not too windy on 24th - makes it difficult for the man in red to fly (and awful to try and swim in!!).

Model goes up to the 22nd now.
Very little sign in my eyes of a snowy or even cold christmas at the moment. It looks pretty atlantic dominated.

Interesting thoughts from John Hammond here.
While we might not have a White Christmas, he thinks early into the New Year it could get rather interesting when it comes to cold.

OYBBK Just what I wanted to hear!

The metoffice have given us one snowflake for next Friday morning at 3am.
I shall make sure I'm up for that!

just popping my gloves and hat on a chair on the thread....